Iranian Control of the Strait of Hormuz

Let's not under estimate the effect the resumption Bibi corruption trials in this saga.

Yes, Iran has been militarily weakened, but regime change not in Iran but Israel could be the key.
My guess is the upcoming US regime change will be precipitate Israeli regime change.
Godfather 1 taught us, " war is bad for business"
 
Theres a deal to make if this is still going on when/if Dems win in 2028. We send them Trump and Hegseth in exchange for peace/reopening the strait. Some might call it the biggest most beautiful peace deal in history.
 
Richard Hanania summed it up well. Trump in the past couple weeks cycled through different positions on Hormuz.

"OPEN HORMUZ OR YOUR CIVILIZATION DIES."

"We don't need Hormuz, it's Europe's problem."

"Oh actually, we're probably going to have a deal with the Iranians to run it together."

"It's great Hormuz is not open, we get to sell more oil!"

"Actually, Hormuz is open! The media is lying again."
 
Iran has effectively proven they can do enough damage to scare shippers to hold the entire world’s economy hostage. Trump’s options are reengage in war and risk oil skyrocketing again or let Iran control and tax the strait which negates the military gains from the war (Iran gains a huge economic boon, the regime is still intact, they’ve demonstrated a deterrence that doesn’t require nukes or advanced missilry).

Woof
 
There are already some pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. There will a lot of additional such pipelines built over the next few years. There is no way Iran's neighbors will acquiesce in this.
 
nsacpi said:
There are already some pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. There will a lot of additional such pipelines built over the next few years. There is no way Iran's neighbors will acquiesce in this.
Click to expand...
Yes some

But alternatives are not immune to attacks and have been mostly economically non viable.

I’m sure the gulf countries will fast track exiting plans and the math has probably changed enough to green light new ones, but there will never be a Hormuz replacement.
 
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