Is the rebuild in trouble?

Albies numbers have improved substantially from April to May. Slash line by month:

April: .255/.279/.378
May: .276/.339/.390

His strikeouts are down from 25 in April to 21 in May even though he's had more plate appearances in May. I think his strikeout rate will settle in the 15-20% range in AAA the rest of this year (which translates to something in the 20-25% range at the major league level). That's part of the reason why I'm happy to have him spend the year in AAA. By next year assuming normal progression it should be down to the 10-15% range in AAA or 15-20% range in the majors.
 
I have trouble with the objectivity of anyone who rates Toussaint's performamnce an "up" this year.

That said, I am more than comfortable with the rebuild when you consider that Maitan and the rest of that "class of 16" have yet to see an inning of live pro pitching.
 
smootness said:
...and he's a college sophomore in AAA. It's really not concerning, as pretty much any prospect guy has said when asked. His K rate is normalizing, as is his BB rate, and his numbers across the board are improving.
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They are improving which is good. So are you satisfied with the way he has started the year? To say his start is not concerning is being disingenuous.
 
smootness said:
One is 'flopping' in the majors. The other is 'flopping' at 20 in AAA. In other words, this stuff happens. It's not some extremely abnormal thing or anything to be overly concerned about at this point.

And yes, you pointed out some of the guys who have not seen their stock improve. Just about everybody else's has.
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I didn't say nobody has seen their stock improve just that several have not. And it's mainly those who are in the upper minors. The Braves rebuild started in 2015 and we have yet to yield an average MLB player since it's started.
 
This is going to take some time. Like a few others, I think the front office pushed the image of contending too aggressively and, as a result, many fans are expecting an instantaneously better product on the field. People are going to have to be patient to see things shake out at the big league level. I worry that they will burn service time on Acuna and a few other guys instead of being more deliberate.

But it's important to remember with prospects that the major leagues are in an entirely different galaxy than the minors. Byron Buxton was a consensus Top 5 prospect coming into the 2016 season and he did some things last year that made it look like 2017 was going to really be something. Instead, he's right about where Dansby is.

People are going to debate whether there should have been a complete teardown that would have included trading Freeman and Teheran. Reasonable discussion to have, but the on-field product would have been even more ghastly.
 
thewupk said:
They are improving which is good. So are you satisfied with the way he has started the year? To say his start is not concerning is being disingenuous.
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Depends on how you define 'satisfied'. I'm not thrilled with it, but I'm definitely not concerned. It makes sense given his age, level, and injury, and his numbers are improving, which is what you would want to see. So no, it's not concerning to me, and I don't think I'm being disingenuous.
 
We never truly tore it down. Freddie should have been traded and we should have gotten the number 1 pick this year and taken Hunter Greene.

Freddie Freeman will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Maitan hits Atlanta, and that's assuming Maitan turns out to be as good as advertised, which is no sure thing, at all.

I'd trade Freddie as soon as he gets back. Trade Julio. Trade Ender. Trade Kemp and Markakis.

Realize we won't be good for 3-4 years. Then we can realistically talk about winning the whole thing.

The way we're doing it right now won't work, IMO. We'll just be mediocre. Maybe make an occasional WC game.
 
rico43 said:
I have trouble with the objectivity of anyone who rates Toussaint's performamnce an "up" this year.

That said, I am more than comfortable with the rebuild when you consider that Maitan and the rest of that "class of 16" have yet to see an inning of live pro pitching.
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As a prospect, I think Touki's stock is absolutely up so far this year. His results haven't been good in the sense that he's given up a lot of runs. So in terms of winning Florida games, his start hasn't been good.

But in terms of growth as a prospect? Absolutely it has been positive. The K and BB rates from him are shockingly improved, and if he keeps that up you will start to see the ERA fall quickly.

Regardless, the primary things he needed to improve upon were his K and BB rates, and he has done both in a very positive way.
 
SJ24 said:
We never truly tore it down. Freddie should have been traded and we should have gotten the number 1 pick this year and taken Hunter Greene.

Freddie Freeman will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Maitan hits Atlanta, and that's assuming Maitan turns out to be as good as advertised, which is no sure thing, at all.

I'd trade Freddie as soon as he gets back. Trade Julio. Trade Ender. Trade Kemp and Markakis.

Realize we won't be good for 3-4 years. Then we can realistically talk about winning the whole thing.

The way we're doing it right now won't work, IMO. We'll just be mediocre. Maybe make an occasional WC game.
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I don't have a problem with someone believing we should completely tear the thing down, though I disagree. I do have a problem with someone believing we haven't amassed enough talent to do anything more than tread water. I'm not saying it will happen next year, and it's certainly possible it doesn't happen, but this amount of talent should be able to build you the foundation of a contender in time.
 
rico43 said:
I have trouble with the objectivity of anyone who rates Toussaint's performamnce an "up" this year.

That said, I am more than comfortable with the rebuild when you consider that Maitan and the rest of that "class of 16" have yet to see an inning of live pro pitching.
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His stats that actually matter... his peripherals... are actually greatly improved.
 
No to the original question

I am worried Swanson will just be avg. I am worried albies won't hit enough to be plus at second but it's just worries.

Blair and wisler sucking is a red flag

But ender is already a multi war player and is team friendly controlled. Freeman is much more valuable now and they were right to keep him.

I'm a believer in folty. I think he's going to be a very good 3. Dominate some and blow up some.
I think jj has been a good signing and will be a good piece to trade. I did not like adding kemp and Oliver's deal sucked but they made lemonade out of the lemon. Neck has been solid. Phillips is a huge plus armor million and keeping albies down. They didn't know rod was going to b hit by a car...that was the bench plan

I get the pitching guys all have some issue but I think we will get good starting and a couple high leverage rps out of this crop.

To me the big test for positive or negative will be this deadline. Do they have the balls to deal kemp or Tehran if they get a good deal? Can they let go of flowers and jj and fill a hole or will they need them for the next "playoff "run? Will they dump the one year starters and let Newcombe work through his stuff? Can they give swivel and Simms a real audition?

Will they be dumb enough to start albies, acuna, allard or soroka clock?
 
thewupk said:
I didn't say nobody has seen their stock improve just that several have not. And it's mainly those who are in the upper minors. The Braves rebuild started in 2015 and we have yet to yield an average MLB player since it's started.
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I'd say Ruiz has an excellent chance of being average.
 
SJ24 said:
We never truly tore it down. Freddie should have been traded and we should have gotten the number 1 pick this year and taken Hunter Greene.

Freddie Freeman will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Maitan hits Atlanta, and that's assuming Maitan turns out to be as good as advertised, which is no sure thing, at all.

I'd trade Freddie as soon as he gets back. Trade Julio. Trade Ender. Trade Kemp and Markakis.

Realize we won't be good for 3-4 years. Then we can realistically talk about winning the whole thing.

The way we're doing it right now won't work, IMO. We'll just be mediocre. Maybe make an occasional WC game.
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Everyone on here knows that I was calling for this from the beginning. But, I think now we are too far down the road to realistically trade Freeman and take all the paint off back down to the metal. Julio, Kemp, Markakis, Johnson, Viz, Colon, Dickey, J. Garcia, A. Garcia, Peterson should be very available as they have no long term future in Atlanta. Folty and Inciarte under the right circumstances should be available.

Swanson should be in the minor leagues learning to play and saving his clock.

I understand what the OP is saying but I'm not there yet. My concern long term is that the FO would do a half rebuild/half reload all half assed and the team end up locked in perpetual purgatory - not bad enough to force another rebuild, not good enough to ever really, truly compete.
 
rico43 said:
I'd say Ruiz has an excellent chance of being average.
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Well, and Swanson is obviously likely to be. Folty basically was last year, though he hasn't sustained it.

Not that these are great things to be pumped about, but the lack of a consistently average player having come out of a rebuild that started 2 years ago is not a huge shock.
 
Russ2dollas said:
No to the original question

I am worried Swanson will just be avg. I am worried albies won't hit enough to be plus at second but it's just worries.

Blair and wisler sucking is a red flag

But ender is already a multi war player and is team friendly controlled. Freeman is much more valuable now and they were right to keep him.

I'm a believer in folty. I think he's going to be a very good 3. Dominate some and blow up some.
I think jj has been a good signing and will be a good piece to trade. I did not like adding kemp and Oliver's deal sucked but they made lemonade out of the lemon. Neck has been solid. Phillips is a huge plus armor million and keeping albies down. They didn't know rod was going to b hit by a car...that was the bench plan

I get the pitching guys all have some issue but I think we will get good starting and a couple high leverage rps out of this crop.

To me the big test for positive or negative will be this deadline. Do they have the balls to deal kemp or Tehran if they get a good deal? Can they let go of flowers and jj and fill a hole or will they need them for the next "playoff "run? Will they dump the one year starters and let Newcombe work through his stuff? Can they give swivel and Simms a real audition?

Will they be dumb enough to start albies, acuna, allard or soroka clock?
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It's not even close to being fair to put Albies in the same window with the other three. I am 100 percent in agreement with you on those kids, but the calendar is hardly a fair measuring stick on Ozzie. At this writing, he already has over 1,500 minor league plate appearances. If Phillips can stay healthy for more than a week at a time, it is perfectly reasonable to save Albies until September, when a callup would not start his "clock" prematurely.
The others get a chance to make the team next spring. If Acuna was 22 instead of a teenager, I believe he would have gone north with the big club this year based on his results. He is close to a lock for next year -- or should be.
As for Albies' current timetable, I believe the Braves want it that way. We forget that in addition to Seat Rodriguez being hurt, the acquired Micah Johnson from the Dodgers and due to a broken hand he has not played all season either. These guys are all buffers against bringing him up prematurely.
 
Growing pains, taking lumps and a few busts are part of the rebuilding process, just as is finding that diamond in the rough. As pointed out, Dayton Moore's job was in jeopardy before the big turnaround. Same thing with previous Braves rebuild. Every single pre-season prognostication had them pegged for dead last going into '91. That's what made it so exciting!
 
SJ24 said:
We never truly tore it down. Freddie should have been traded and we should have gotten the number 1 pick this year and taken Hunter Greene.

Freddie Freeman will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Maitan hits Atlanta, and that's assuming Maitan turns out to be as good as advertised, which is no sure thing, at all.

I'd trade Freddie as soon as he gets back. Trade Julio. Trade Ender. Trade Kemp and Markakis.

Realize we won't be good for 3-4 years. Then we can realistically talk about winning the whole thing.

The way we're doing it right now won't work, IMO. We'll just be mediocre. Maybe make an occasional WC game.
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Written by someone who's likely never paid his way to attend a Braves game in his life.
It's so easy to make bold, witless declarations like this when you treat it like a fantasy league. But there is real money and real long-term consequence if the Braves don't start filling this new park and generating buzz now. When Freddie was healthy, there was beginning to be that kind of buzz about this club, and that sort of thing is worth its weight in gold.
I might give your argument more consideration if you take the time to consider the return on each player you're trading above, and how they will be replaced. For example, are you willing to trade Freeman because we have Matt Adams for two more years, or because you consider 30 the crest and anything past is over the hill?
Trading Inciarte, a player with control and real value, you lose me. Kemp might well be a deadline bonanza if there are pennant races this year and certainly Markakis is a logical move as teams will be happy to take on a one-year deal and Acuna will be ready next spring.
But short-term issues at home aside, Teheran is the ace of this staff and you need a veteran under the age of 40 as an anchor.
 
rico43 said:
Written by someone who's likely never paid his way to attend a Braves game in his life.
It's so easy to make bold, witless declarations like this when you treat it like a fantasy league. But there is real money and real long-term consequence if the Braves don't start filling this new park and generating buzz now. When Freddie was healthy, there was beginning to be that kind of buzz about this club, and that sort of thing is worth its weight in gold.
I might give your argument more consideration if you take the time to consider the return on each player you're trading above, and how they will be replaced. For example, are you willing to trade Freeman because we have Matt Adams for two more years, or because you consider 30 the crest and anything past is over the hill?
Trading Inciarte, a player with control and real value, you lose me. Kemp might well be a deadline bonanza if there are pennant races this year and certainly Markakis is a logical move as teams will be happy to take on a one-year deal and Acuna will be ready next spring.
But short-term issues at home aside, Teheran is the ace of this staff and you need a veteran under the age of 40 as an anchor.
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You're exactly right, but he sounds like he could be related to Horsehide Harry.
 
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