Is the rebuild in trouble?

Carp said:
Yeah I think Newcomb has the pure stuff to be as good as any pitcher in baseball. The problem is obviously putting it all together. Sometimes it just clicks though.
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The walksneed to come down but he's got dominant stuff and he's been having dominant results the last nine games.

As he matures he should push his pitch counts and that will help but you're right that he can't walk 5 a game and expect to succeed.

But I think he's made progress and is still a major prospect.
 
This is beginning of his third full season, he's flashing dominance in his first trip through aaa, and he's a cold weather small college guy.

I don't think he's necessarily running behind.

He's got the thing to work on but minor leaguers can't hit him at all. That's more than most have.
 
Without much improvement of his control, Newcomb is a young Gio Gonzalez. There's no reason to jump off the bandwagon for that.
 
nsacpi said:
And before Johnson there was Koufax. It is ok to dream some on guys like Newcomb. And it is ok to have some awareness of the odds for the various possible outcomes for prospects with the same approximate characteristics.
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Yes, indeed.
 
Southcack77 said:
This is beginning of his third full season, he's flashing dominance in his first trip through aaa, and he's a cold weather small college guy.

I don't think he's necessarily running behind.

He's got the thing to work on but minor leaguers can't hit him at all. That's more than most have.
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This. Just quoting an age is too simplistic at times.
 
Going to insert my 2 cents on the Newcomb situation. This comes from a relatively less informed position. That is to say without knowing how much hype he rose with through the ranks, compared with others.

Anyway, high walk rate indicates control issue. This is coachable. Same as before, can't speak to his mechanics, approach, mental state, "makeup," etc. without at least having a look in person. That opportunity won't come until August, in which case there's currently only a 60% chance of him starting in that series. So those concerns and the age are certainly legitimate concerns, it still seems too early to simply write him off this soon. We've seen late bloomers and unheralded prospects do nothing special in the minors and turn around and achieve something in the bigs.
 
Some ppl are wild. Maybe it forces him to the pen
But this should be a time where we learn as much as we can with the 24 yo so we can make informed decisions later
 
This proves that most posters here don't want to be bothered with purchasing a AAA ticket to witness action in person and attempt to make a valued judgment. It's easier to just get online and pretend to be "informed."
 
sturg33 said:
We didn't trade him for Gohara.

I would have tried to compete in 2015.



If we decided we couldn't have... I probably would have traded Heyward or Upton (not both) in the offseason. If you then foolishly sign Markakis, you go to bat with that team. If you fail to compete, you trade Heyward/Upton in July. You trade Kimbrel for the big haul.

I would have traded Kimbrel too if we could have gotten a Margot, Torres, or Frazier for him, but we didn't so I would have held on to him until the trade deadline.

I'm holding on to Simmons, Wood, and Peraza. I'd have let Gattis catch - but I'm fine with the trade we made.

I would have done things very differently. May not have worked out. But I don't think what we've done has worked out either. At least, it's not a good probability that it will
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I'm actually with you there. I didn't think the tear-down was necessary. But when they decided to, I'm glad they went as far as they did. BJ had to go. Not just because of his cost, but because of his (alleged) effect on the clubhouse. I was against moving Gattis, but when Folty is on, it was totally worth it. Heyward wasn't gonna re-sign, so I get that one. And, bad teams don't need closers, so I get packaging Kimbrel to get BJ off the books. The Hector Olivera thing is such an outlier that I wonder if someone suffered a head injury beforehand. Simmons, I'm on the fence about. I get why the people who wanted to keep him wanted to keep him, but that's a lot of money to pay a guy who hasn't OPS'ed above .700 in the last 4 seasons. I personally believe defense is what you pay the least for, ans so to me, Simmons became expendable. I LIKE Newcombe a lot, too. I'm not sure Alex Wood was ever going to be what he is in LA here. JMO, but I was ok with that deal, too. I guess my disappointment lies on the shoulders of Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair. We'd be better as a team if they'd panned out, but live and learn.
 
We had a good young team. The problem is...some were already getting paid and a few other key guys were about to be paid. If we were the Yankees , we would just sign them all and add other free agents. We aren't the Yankees, and knew we would most likely loose Jup and Heyward thanks to BJ. Let's not forget this team was not winning as constructed with the guys we wanted to keep. They didn't hit for average and struck out ALOT. To be successful, this team would have needed to sign all those guys and sign some other. We could not trade for anyone because we had no assets on the farm to trade. We would have needed to have a $150 mil + payroll to sign key players and fix other problems.

In saying this....I would have traded Jhey and Jup (no way to sign those guys), and Kimbrel (we wouldn't need an elite closer and he was a huge trade chip), but I wouldn't have kept BJ and would have gotten max prospects back for him). I would have held onto Gattis and Simmons, but there is a good chance if Folty and/or Newk progresses...I could have been wrong. I would have kept my #1 prospect at the time (no brainer on a rebuilding team or at least gotten something better) and of course kept Wood). I would have traded Julio.

So if I had my way, we would not have Folty or Newk....but we would have Wood, Simmons , Gattis and many, many other prospects.

There have been many mistakes no doubt, but there is a ton of hope. Think of this:

1. Outside of Wisler and Blair flaming out (and a bunch of guys we rooted for (but really deep down knew they wouldn't make it)...we are yet to see ANY of our minor league talent contribute.

2. Late this year will really be the first real minor league talent (except Dansby who was rushed), we will actually witness from the rebuild.

3. We have the #1 farm, have another high draft within a few weeks and will no doubt have at least a few interesting international signings. That's not to even mention the bonanza international signings we are yet to see along with guys like Muller.

4. The payoff from the rebuild is "just" now at the very earliest stage to see ANY dividends. Certainly zero way to see any success or failure at this point.

5. Come back to me in 2020. Yep...sorry....it will be a while.
 
this rebuild has always felt as it was going to count on allard and soroka panning out.

maybe newcomb, sims, or weigel can step up and contribute soon.
 
It's year 3 of the rebuild? It was a tear down which was always going to take time.

Braves have arguably the best farm in baseball with another draft coming up soon.

Some questionable moves like Wood for Olivera, and putting BJ with Kimbrel. I would have just ate BJ's contract and moved Kimbrel straight up. But otherwise, most of the trades were good. To an extent, we panicked on the Simmons trade, could have gotten more if we waited. But Newcomb is close to reaching the majors.
 
the whole thing about cutting out bad contracts in the middle of dismantling the team showed just what BS this rebuild was. did they want to improve as much as possible or save as much money as possible in the guise of a rebuild as they built a new stadium in Cobb County? hmmm
 
The main problem with the rebuild is for the 1st year they tried to make moves to get ready to compete in 2017 when the new stadium opened. Most of the moves made were for that goal. I would have rather tried to compete in 2015 than go the route they started with. If the decision to rebuild was made they should have not had 2017 on their mind. It wasn't until the HO deal blew up that they finally scrapped that idea. They managed to salvage some of their moves. Mainly Miller for Ender/Swanson and Mallex for Gohara but if they would of had that plan from the start I feel we would of been in a better place.
 
thewupk said:
The main problem with the rebuild is for the 1st year they tried to make moves to get ready to compete in 2017 when the new stadium opened. Most of the moves made were for that goal. I would have rather tried to compete in 2015 than go the route they started with. If the decision to rebuild was made they should have not had 2017 on their mind. It wasn't until the HO deal blew up that they finally scrapped that idea. They managed to salvage some of their moves. Mainly Miller for Ender/Swanson and Mallex for Gohara but if they would of had that plan from the start I feel we would of been in a better place.
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I can agree with this. I said that was the FO biggest miss step and I have a feeling higher ups pulled the strings for this. I also give credit for the FO to completely not panic and keep building a solid farm system that hedged that initial risk. They screwed up, but don't have to completely start over again.
 
thewupk said:
The main problem with the rebuild is for the 1st year they tried to make moves to get ready to compete in 2017 when the new stadium opened. Most of the moves made were for that goal. I would have rather tried to compete in 2015 than go the route they started with. If the decision to rebuild was made they should have not had 2017 on their mind. It wasn't until the HO deal blew up that they finally scrapped that idea. They managed to salvage some of their moves. Mainly Miller for Ender/Swanson and Mallex for Gohara but if they would of had that plan from the start I feel we would of been in a better place.
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Can't argue with this.
 
Knucksie said:
This proves that most posters here don't want to be bothered with purchasing a AAA ticket to witness action in person and attempt to make a valued judgment. It's easier to just get online and pretend to be "informed."
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I'd love to be bothered to attend a minor-league game. Some of us don't live remotely near any teams.
 
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