Is There A Glut of Starting Pitching

[nsacpi]

In recent years, offense has declined in baseball. Some of it reflects new conditioning and training techniques that have resulted in a noticeable increase in fastball velocity. Some of it reflects the decline in PED usage that previously had pumped up home run numbers. Some of it reflects the fact it has been a while since we've had expansion and this has historically worked to bring down offense.

Whatever the reason, going into this off-season it appears to be a buyers market for starting pitching this off-season. By my count there appear to be 17-18 acceptable starting pitching options on the free agent market. In addition, teams like the Mets, Blue Jays, A's and maybe one or two others appear willing to part with a starting pitcher (or 2) to strengthen their teams elsewhere. So in the post-season game of musical chairs there are likely over 20 starting pitchers looking for landing place. Not all obviously are of equal quality. But that's a lot. By my count the demand for starting pitching (adding up all the spots that teams are looking to fill in their rotation) is less than 20.

I think this has implications for how we approach filling out our starting rotation. Patience will pay off because the price of starting pitching is likely to drop as spring training approaches. I know as fans we like to see the team's needs filled out as quickly as possible. And the front office probably does not like dealing with uncertainty into February or March. But if we wait we could well get a bargain.

 

[Enscheff]

My thoughts exactly, which is why I think it would be wise to sign a FA pitcher rather than using Gattis to trade for one.

It sure would be nice for the Braves to sign a guy to a discounted rate for once, and we see it happen every year with guys like Cruz last year and other FAs that are left without a seat after the music stops.

 

[50PoundHead]

In recent years, offense has declined in baseball. Some of it reflects new conditioning and training techniques that have resulted in a noticeable increase in fastball velocity. Some of it reflects the decline in PED usage that previously had pumped up home run numbers. Some of it reflects the fact it has been a while since we've had expansion and this has historically worked to bring down offense.

Whatever the reason, going into this off-season it appears to be a buyers market for starting pitching this off-season. By my count there appear to be 17-18 acceptable starting pitching options on the free agent market. In addition, teams like the Mets, Blue Jays, A's and maybe one or two others appear willing to part with a starting pitcher (or 2) to strengthen their teams elsewhere. So in the post-season game of musical chairs there are likely over 20 starting pitchers looking for landing place. Not all obviously are of equal quality. But that's a lot. By my count the demand for starting pitching (adding up all the spots that teams are looking to fill in their rotation) is less than 20.

I think this has implications for how we approach filling out our starting rotation. Patience will pay off because the price of starting pitching is likely to drop as spring training approaches. I know as fans we like to see the team's needs filled out as quickly as possible. And the front office probably does not like dealing with uncertainty into February or March. But if we wait we could well get a bargain.

After ragging on Wren's lack of patience during his tenure, it would be disingenuous of me to give Hart and company a pass if they were follow the same pattern. I think patience is in order. Unless the Rays are giving Hellickson away, just relax a bit and let the market take shape.

As per your other point, I think it's a cycle. PED use goes down. Power diminishes. Pitchers aren't afraid to throw strikes. Hitters are forced into more "pitchers' counts." Add to that the upticks and the "it's all about the fastball" approach being increasingly advocated, and we are where we are. I don't have the statistics, but I'd be curious to see if umps are calling more strikes now as well.

 

[nsacpi]

The Reds are a team to watch. Joel Sherman is reporting that their GM is of a mindset that they will be either "all in" or "all out" in 2015. If all out, this means they would make Cueto, Latos, Leake and Simon available.

The Braves would not necessarily have to be a direct trade partner with the Reds to be affected by this. Remember a couple years ago when the Twins traded both Revere and Span. If we hadn't jumped the gun so early on Melvin, we would have found ourselves in a buyers market for center fielders. I think this is already a buyer's market for starting pitchers. If the Reds add to the supply, it could be a real glut. By being patient, we can position ourselves nicely to benefit.

 

[Tapate50]

I believe you are correct. I also am wary that if we are setting ourselves up to be like the Giants (pitching pitching pitching and a few decent hitters) we don't just need starters but high end ones at that. Those players and their availability are not -just a one year left to FA situation - often found. I'd actually like Hellickson and his ability to rebound to a nice pitcher here. I don't think we have to throw the farm at them, but I'd certainly entertain it.

 

[nsacpi]

I believe you are correct. I also am wary that if we are setting ourselves up to be like the Giants (pitching pitching pitching and a few decent hitters) we don't just need starters but high end ones at that. Those players and their availability are not -just a one year left to FA situation - often found. I'd actually like Hellickson and his ability to rebound to a nice pitcher here. I don't think we have to throw the farm at them, but I'd certainly entertain it.

I don't see us scooping up high-end pitching from outside the organization. Our Bumgarner will have to come from within. The Giants best starting pitchers during their run have been homegrown.

 

[Tapate50]

I don't see us scooping up high-end pitching from outside the organization. Our Bumgarner will have to come from within. The Giants best starting pitchers during their run have been homegrown.

I think DOB has reference that he believes we snag a high ceiling starter from someone before too long, but take that .02 from him for what its worth. Not much.

 

[Nerfherders]

After ragging on Wren's lack of patience during his tenure, it would be disingenuous of me to give Hart and company a pass if they were follow the same pattern. I think patience is in order. Unless the Rays are giving Hellickson away, just relax a bit and let the market take shape.

As per your other point, I think it's a cycle. PED use goes down. Power diminishes. Pitchers aren't afraid to throw strikes. Hitters are forced into more "pitchers' counts." Add to that the upticks and the "it's all about the fastball" approach being increasingly advocated, and we are where we are. I don't have the statistics, but I'd be curious to see if umps are calling more strikes now as well.

Yes. I read an article during the season that proposed that one of the big changes has been forcing the umps to call the low strike. This has happened because the Pitch/fx system went into place. More strikes mean more outs. It's one of those subtle things you won't notice in a game, or perhaps in a season of games, but it doesn't take many extra called strikes to make a huge difference. Once it starts being called, then hitters have to swing at that pitch, and the cycle perpetuates.

 

[50PoundHead]

Yes. I read an article during the season that proposed that one of the big changes has been forcing the umps to call the low strike. This has happened because the Pitch/fx system went into place. More strikes mean more outs. It's one of those subtle things you won't notice in a game, or perhaps in a season of games, but it doesn't take many extra called strikes to make a huge difference. Once it starts being called, then hitters have to swing at that pitch, and the cycle perpetuates.

Precisely. I'm not going to rag on OBP, which is important, but the approach advocated by Michael Lewis in Moneyball really falls apart when umps call strikes. I think umps not calling strikes on pitches that were strikes had more to do with the power upsurge than PED usage. It all goes in cycles.

 

[nsacpi]

The fact that we are in an era where pitching is relatively easy to find is one more reason I wonder about the return (or lack thereof) for Heyward. We rushed to fill the hole we had in our rotation. In this market, I think the teams that wait will get better value.

 

[50PoundHead]

The fact that we are in an era where pitching is relatively easy to find is one more reason I wonder about the return (or lack thereof) for Heyward. We rushed to fill the hole we had in our rotation. In this market, I think the teams that wait will get better value.

I think your logic stands up, but you're not factoring in Heyward's impending FA. If he was going to test FA, we could do worse than getting Miller.

 

[nsacpi]

I think your logic stands up, but you're not factoring in Heyward's impending FA. If he was going to test FA, we could do worse than getting Miller.

When I said I think the teams that wait will get better value, the timeframe I have in mind is this off-season. Better value in Jan-Feb than November.

 

[50PoundHead]

When I said I think the teams that wait will get better value, the timeframe I have in mind is this off-season. Better value in Jan-Feb than November.

But at that point, it becomes even more obvious that Heyward is going to test FA and his trade value goes down.

 

[gilesfan]

I think your logic stands up, but you're not factoring in Heyward's impending FA. If he was going to test FA, we could do worse than getting Miller.

I said last year we should trade him. The return last year would have likely be significantly higher.

Even this years, it's probably should have, but the Braves probably feel in love with Miller.

 

[chipchildress]

it's a pretty damned good return for a guy that's got one year on his contract.

with that said, all of this current hype around defense had me hoping more would be coming back too, but i'm not devastated with the return by any means.