Is Very Poorly Chosen One a Secret Agent for the Left

Yep, no one to blame for the impending blue Tsunami but Dear Leader. If Hillary won in 2016 I think Republicans right now would be on the verge of having full control of the Senate and Presidency. I already cant wait for the 2024 GOP primary. I wonder if it will be an ass kissing contest to Trump, whether Trump will suddenly become a pariah who no one wants to admit they supported, or if many of the Trump sycophants end up in another primary against Trump as Bannon suggested he would run again in 2024 if he loses.
 
Yep, no one to blame for the impending blue Tsunami but Dear Leader. If Hillary won in 2016 I think Republicans right now would be on the verge of having full control of the Senate and Presidency. I already cant wait for the 2024 GOP primary. I wonder if it will be an ass kissing contest to Trump, whether Trump will suddenly become a pariah who no one wants to admit they supported, or if many of the Trump sycophants end up in another primary against Trump as Bannon suggested he would run again in 2024 if he loses.

GOP politics in 2022 and 2024 is going to be well worth the price of admission. Gonna be some wild primaries.
 
Yep, no one to blame for the impending blue Tsunami but Dear Leader. If Hillary won in 2016 I think Republicans right now would be on the verge of having full control of the Senate and Presidency. I already cant wait for the 2024 GOP primary. I wonder if it will be an ass kissing contest to Trump, whether Trump will suddenly become a pariah who no one wants to admit they supported, or if many of the Trump sycophants end up in another primary against Trump as Bannon suggested he would run again in 2024 if he loses.

This is a weird line of thought.

When Trump loses, hes gone. He won't be invited back. I'm not sure how much business success he will have either after all this. Not many folks rushing to jump in with him i'd imagine.
 
When Trump loses, hes gone. He won't be invited back.

I think this is an assumption more than anything else. It will be interesting to see how much his endorsement is worth in 2022 primaries.

I'm guessing there will be a large Q-adjacent faction that will be competing in those primaries. It's gonna be wild.
 
This is a weird line of thought.

When Trump loses, hes gone. He won't be invited back. I'm not sure how much business success he will have either after all this. Not many folks rushing to jump in with him i'd imagine.

I mean, he's barely had any business success before he was President in reality.
 
I think you underestimate the cult of Trump. I dont know what percent of Republicans would make up his fanatical base but its significant enough that I think Republican candidates are going to have to really walk a tightrope on the issue. He is a very good fundraiser and that will always win him friends in political circles. I imagine his kids will milk this for everything its worth because I expect a significant decline in his mental faculties by the time he hits 80 which isnt that far away. As for business he needs to get out of the real estate game. He isnt good at it and all he really only makes money by licensing his name/brand and real estate properties run by other people. He now has a group in his base that are ready willing and able suckers for his cons. He should and probably will exploit that. If he was a truly smart buisness man he would have legalized Marijuana and let used his branding/marketing skills to dominate that market. Its practically a license to print money and I think their family would have made a trillion dollars over the next 100 years.


Bannon says Trump will run against in 2024 if he loses. Assuming he isnt in prison.
 
Interesting Ross Douthat column.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

"the great accelerant"

That the rise of wokeness was accelerated by Trump I have no doubt. But if you look at public opinion data, the liberal shift leftward, on social issues and especially race, begins midway through Obama’s second term, meaning that when Trump kicked off his campaign the Great Awokening was already taking shape.

So if the consolidation of the new progressivism was Trump-driven, its original appeal was not. Instead, you need to analyze that appeal on its own terms. Just as the reactionary turn among conservatives is understandable given the loss of things that the right was supposed to be conserving, the new progressivism is understandable as a response to previous trends in elite liberalism, to failures and successes both.

Thus the zeal of the new antiracism is a response to the longstanding failure of liberal policymaking to actually close racial gaps. The moralism of #MeToo feminism, the desire to rethink or redefine the contours of consent, reflects a sense that in championing sexual individualism liberalism had ended up enabling predation. The spiritualizing side of wokeness, from the martyrology of police-shooting victims to the confessions of privilege and the zealous witch hunts, seems like an attempt to restore a sense of the sacred that a secularized liberalism sorely lacks. And the progressive skepticism of old-fashioned liberal appeals to free speech and free debate, the sense that certain arguments (whether on immigration, race or gender identity) should be simply ended once an activist consensus is established, seems to treat the swift and sweeping success of the movement for same-sex marriage as a model for how to win on more controverted issues.

In many of these impulses, but especially the last one, there’s an embedded promise that progressive change can happen as a kind of moral awakening within elite institutions rather than through any kind of dramatic revolt against them. (Neither Harvard nor Coca-Cola nor the C.I.A. had to give up anything when Obergefell v. Hodges was handed down.) Which explains, in turn, why this cluster of ideas has advanced so fast within the key precincts of American power. Even though the new progressivism takes a dire view of our great institutions’ history, it also seems to promise that those same institutions can endure unchallenged in their power, if only they confess, repent and convert — and recruit their new members more intersectionally than before.

The tension between this institutionalism and the promised radical change may eventually be the new progressivism’s undoing. (Can Ibram X. Kendi permanently sustain his radical chic while being an academic recipient of Silicon Valley largess?) Or alternatively, as I suggested in my last column, the actual application of radical ideas outside the protected spaces of the elite, to issues of crime and policing especially, may lead to breakdowns that cost progressives not just an election but their commanding position within the establishment as well.
 
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Yep, no one to blame for the impending blue Tsunami but Dear Leader. If Hillary won in 2016 I think Republicans right now would be on the verge of having full control of the Senate and Presidency. I already cant wait for the 2024 GOP primary. I wonder if it will be an ass kissing contest to Trump, whether Trump will suddenly become a pariah who no one wants to admit they supported, or if many of the Trump sycophants end up in another primary against Trump as Bannon suggested he would run again in 2024 if he loses.

If Hillary had won in 2016 we would have a progressive activist court right now. Once that happens the rest doesn't matter very much, unless the court packing games begin and Pubs manage to somehow beat what will be a stacked deck and get full control so they can play those games too
 
Interesting Ross Douthat column.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

"the great accelerant"

That the rise of wokeness was accelerated by Trump I have no doubt. But if you look at public opinion data, the liberal shift leftward, on social issues and especially race, begins midway through Obama’s second term, meaning that when Trump kicked off his campaign the Great Awokening was already taking shape.

So if the consolidation of the new progressivism was Trump-driven, its original appeal was not. Instead, you need to analyze that appeal on its own terms. Just as the reactionary turn among conservatives is understandable given the loss of things that the right was supposed to be conserving, the new progressivism is understandable as a response to previous trends in elite liberalism, to failures and successes both.

Thus the zeal of the new antiracism is a response to the longstanding failure of liberal policymaking to actually close racial gaps. The moralism of #MeToo feminism, the desire to rethink or redefine the contours of consent, reflects a sense that in championing sexual individualism liberalism had ended up enabling predation. The spiritualizing side of wokeness, from the martyrology of police-shooting victims to the confessions of privilege and the zealous witch hunts, seems like an attempt to restore a sense of the sacred that a secularized liberalism sorely lacks. And the progressive skepticism of old-fashioned liberal appeals to free speech and free debate, the sense that certain arguments (whether on immigration, race or gender identity) should be simply ended once an activist consensus is established, seems to treat the swift and sweeping success of the movement for same-sex marriage as a model for how to win on more controverted issues.

In many of these impulses, but especially the last one, there’s an embedded promise that progressive change can happen as a kind of moral awakening within elite institutions rather than through any kind of dramatic revolt against them. (Neither Harvard nor Coca-Cola nor the C.I.A. had to give up anything when Obergefell v. Hodges was handed down.) Which explains, in turn, why this cluster of ideas has advanced so fast within the key precincts of American power. Even though the new progressivism takes a dire view of our great institutions’ history, it also seems to promise that those same institutions can endure unchallenged in their power, if only they confess, repent and convert — and recruit their new members more intersectionally than before.

The tension between this institutionalism and the promised radical change may eventually be the new progressivism’s undoing. (Can Ibram X. Kendi permanently sustain his radical chic while being an academic recipient of Silicon Valley largess?) Or alternatively, as I suggested in my last column, the actual application of radical ideas outside the protected spaces of the elite, to issues of crime and policing especially, may lead to breakdowns that cost progressives not just an election but their commanding position within the establishment as well.

The woke left has a couple of problems that could defeat them. First, their positions will drive turnout from the far right. The more identity politics you see being played by the left and the more push towards punishing those they disagree with, the more threatened the far right will feel. Why did we get Trump int he first place? As the article pointed out, wokeism really started gaining steam under Obama. This drove people on the right towards the demagogue Trump. The more intense the woke left goes, the more intense the reaction you'll get from the right.

The even bigger problem for the woke left is moderates. You had a fair number of moderates and even moderate conservatives who were turned off by Trump's and the far right's antics. These are affluent people living in comfortable suburban houses that saw Biden as a safer, more moderate choice. However, these people are not friends of the woke left.

If the woke left continues to play identity politics and continues to call for punishment of those that disagree, that will only drive these people towards the next Republican candidate.

The woke left and the far right really make me wonder if we'll see the parties fracture and a legitimate third party emerge. Some kind of moderate party. Honestly, moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats probably have more in common with each other than they do the extremes of their own party at this point.
 
The woke left has a couple of problems that could defeat them. First, their positions will drive turnout from the far right. The more identity politics you see being played by the left and the more push towards punishing those they disagree with, the more threatened the far right will feel. Why did we get Trump int he first place? As the article pointed out, wokeism really started gaining steam under Obama. This drove people on the right towards the demagogue Trump. The more intense the woke left goes, the more intense the reaction you'll get from the right.

The even bigger problem for the woke left is moderates. You had a fair number of moderates and even moderate conservatives who were turned off by Trump's and the far right's antics. These are affluent people living in comfortable suburban houses that saw Biden as a safer, more moderate choice. However, these people are not friends of the woke left.

If the woke left continues to play identity politics and continues to call for punishment of those that disagree, that will only drive these people towards the next Republican candidate.

The woke left and the far right really make me wonder if we'll see the parties fracture and a legitimate third party emerge. Some kind of moderate party. Honestly, moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats probably have more in common with each other than they do the extremes of their own party at this point.

True. For every action there is a reaction. Law of politics as well as physics.

The pendulum is a very good metaphor for politics. But not perfect. Because the equilibrium point shifts over time. Those of us living in the moment mostly notice the swings. Historians looking back with the vantage of time will notice the shifts in the equilibrium point. My (feeble) analysis is that very poorly chosen one has contributed to both a swing and a shift in equilibrium point (to the left). He has been consequential but not in the way his fans would like to believe. I think the phrase "the great accelerant" that Douthat used in his column is a good way to put it.
 
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I do wonder if we will ever get a viable third party. It is clear that our current system where candidates are having to pander to the furthest left and furthest right because those are the people who turn out in primaries is creating more and more polarization/division. It also seems clear that moderate dems and moderate republicans in the range of the middle 20-30 senators or the middle 100-150 house members have much more in common than they do with the members on the fringes of their parties, but there is no realistic way to unify that coalition without them getting destroyed in a primary.
 
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