So we are acquiring him just for 2017 right? Or are we extenting him? Extensions for guys a year from hitting free agency tend to be pretty close to market value.
I personally wouldn't want to go down that road unless we extended him - BUT (as others pointed out), that's terribly dangerous too. There's no question (and never has been) that I'm as big a "glass is half-full" guy as anyone here, and I do believe that we're close enough that the RIGHT signing/trade or two combined with a step forward from an arm or two that we already have puts us smack-dab in the mix. I don't disagree that that's a LOT of "ifs", and have never said otherwise. The point is, we've got recent concrete evidence that that COULD happen. There are no guarantees (obviously), but tell me that the Mutts were in a distinctively different position 18 months ago. The only proven high-end starter they had (at that point) was Harvey. Prior to 2015, deGrom had 140.1 IP at the MLB level (Folty logged 123.1 in 2016). Syndergaard hadn't pitched an inning at this level. Neither had Matz. They hadn't acquired Cespedes yet.
This is in no way an attempt to say that Folty, Wisler, and Newcomb are about to take those kinds of steps forward in 2017. What I am saying is that our arms are (or have been) as highly thought of as those were. There's no more reason to think that they CAN'T than there were reasons to think that their guys were going to suddenly hit like they did. The offense the Braves currently have in place is better than what they had in early 2015, and is going to get a shot in the arm with Albies at some point next season. They had d'Arnaud, Duda, Murphy, Flores, Wright, Cuddyer, Lagares, and Granderson to begin the season and improved 11 games between 2014 and the end of 2015.
I defy any of our numbers-based posters to say they saw New York being more than a wildcard contender BEFORE last season started and back it up with numbers. No one saw that coming. That certainly doesn't mean the Braves will take that kind of step either - no question. The point is, this team has more pieces in place now to make that kind of jump than they did then. The stars will have to align next season for the Braves just like they did for the Mutts then.
The situations are really similar if you think about it - there were signs that they could get on a roll if they added a bat (Cespedes) and the faith they had in their Pitchers was rewarded. Our offense made great strides over the last two months of 2016 with little help from the pitching, and closed on an absolute tear. Our "ready" arms don't even have to be nearly as unhittable as theirs' were - just better than they were THIS year. It's a lot to ask, sure - but no more than what was asked when the Mutts made their big jump.
That said, I completely understand those who are so hesitant - and agree with them to a large extent. I'm skeptical as well, and wouldn't want to give up CHUNKS of our future to roll the dice. The thing is, we're in a similar place to the one the Mutts were in - lots of really good pitching "coming", and we have the financial means to add a big piece without mortgaging the entire future. They gave up ONE of their young "Aces" (Fulmer) to get Cespedes. Would I give up Newcomb or Fried to get Martinez? In less than a heartbeat - we'd still have more high-ceiling pitching prospects than anyone else in baseball, AND we might have his bat for years to come. I thought it was really interesting to see Stan Kasten admit what so many here have been saying for a long time - that the playoffs are absolutely a crapshoot...
“It is largely correct that the playoffs are a crapshoot,” Kasten said. “So if you think you can lock something up in just one year by going all in, that is folly. I know our chances of winning a championship are better if we win eight out of 10 division titles.”
Many of the pieces needed to contend for the near future are already in place - Teheran, Freeman, Inciarte, Swanson, Albies, Kemp, a really deep pen, and LOTS of high-ceiling (cheap) arms on the way to keep costs down. Why wait until the monster free-agent class a couple winters from now to add that big piece that may or may not get you over the hump? Some of those arms are going to hit (and hit big) soon. JMO, but if the brass is willing to push some of them - at the right times, of course - I honestly don't see any reason other than catastrophic injuries that the Braves can't make the unexpected leap New York did, and we have a lot more promising prospects in place at the lower levels to help sustain success than they do.
So I guess my answer to "would I extend" Martinez if I got him would be - "maybe". If adding him made things click the way adding Cespedes made the Mutts click, absolutely. There's not likely going to be that kind of impact talent available before the 2019 season. Put him in the middle of the lineup with Freeman and Kemp in 2017, and see what happens. If he performs like most people expect him to, give him a big deal to stay. Offer him market-value like they did Cespedes and see if he's willing to go to a higher bidder with a future that isn't as bright after he spends a season here. Cespedes wasn't.
