John Manuel On XM This Morning

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clvclv

<B>"What is a clvclv"</B>
On Minors And Majors with Grant Paulsen -

Mentioned that Rule V Draft day is one of the five busiest days of every year on the site - more hits than June draft. Several guys that throw 100 will be available.

Braves' notes...

1.) Braves updated Top 10 comes out Friday - have a legitimate shot at breaking the Royals' record of 9 Top 100 guys. 12-13 are under consideration as of right now.

2.) Talked with between 6-8 Scouting Directors who asked "why does Alex Jackson even make the Braves' Top 30?" Said he doesn't work, doesn't adjust, isn't a good teammate - the only positive thing on his ledger is that he was the #6 overall pick when he was chosen. They've been hearing that for a year and a half at this point. The red flags about makeup didn't show up until he got paid. Mentioned Denard Span as the only prospect in the last 20 years to become a big league regular after not making a full season roster in his first full year. Jackson didn't even do it in his second.

3.) Braves have as much high-ceiling talent as any other organization. Even with the Jackson concerns, he feels the trade was a reasonable flier for that reason.
 
I'm against an overpay as well but one of the defining characteristics of the Braves in the 90's and early 2000's was the ability to continually draft, scout and develop minor league talent. I have confidence that this front office will be actually allow the scouting department to do their job uninterrupted.

We may never have a farm this strong again for the next 10 years but it will be one of the best in the game based on the scouting talent that decided to come back to this organization the day Wren was fired.
 
clvclv said:
Talked with between 6-8 Scouting Directors who asked "why does Alex Jackson even make the Braves' Top 30?" Said he doesn't work, doesn't adjust, isn't a good teammate - the only positive thing on his ledger is that he was the #6 overall pick when he was chosen. They've been hearing that for a year and a half at this point. The red flags about makeup didn't show up until he got paid.
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Yikes. If this is an accurate portrayal of Jackson, then I think we've made a mistake unless there's a plan in place to give him a major wake-up call.
 
dak said:
Yikes. If this is an accurate portrayal of Jackson, then I think we've made a mistake unless there's a plan in place to give him a major wake-up call.
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Sometimes D-bags like this need a kick in the face and possibly the trade could have done that. If it doesn't work out then it doesn't hurt but if something clicks then the Bravse could have pulled the heist of the century - Well second biggest heist.
 
dak said:
Yikes. If this is an accurate portrayal of Jackson, then I think we've made a mistake unless there's a plan in place to give him a major wake-up call.
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The negative reports about Jackson have been well known. This clearly is just a lottery ticket for two guys that didn't fit in our plans. Povse could be solid but again he won't be in our rotation long term over our higher end guys. Chances are Jackson doesn't work out but he has enormous talent. WHen you have our pitching depth in the minors I like taking a long shot like this
 
But then you are trading pitchers just because you have them. Why not get equal value back. A long shot is not equal value. I agree with most that it probably will not be a big deal. But I would still rather make moves that have potential and not someone with a
 
bravesfanMatt said:
But then you are trading pitchers just because you have them. Why not get equal value back. A long shot is not equal value. I agree with most that it probably will not be a big deal. But I would still rather make moves that have potential and not someone with a
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clvclv said:
I'll have to disagree here. I'm definitely not a fan of "trading Pitchers just because you have them", but in this situation I think it was a worthwhile gamble. We needed to clear up 40-Man Roster space as well as the logjam in the higher levels - particularly at Gwinnett. The deal checked both of those boxes. Gant's "OK", but he wasn't even going to crack Gwinnett's rotation with Collmenter, Wisler, Blair, Newcomb, Sims, and possibly Weigel and/or Mader at some point so he'd likely have been in the pen wherever he was. While I'm not a fan of trading for kids with questionable makeup, I've yet to hear anyone question Jackson's upside in the unlikely event someone ever gets through to him.

Trading Gant, Ellis, and Povse not only got you a SP you feel much more comfortable with at the MLB level (even if only for one year) while clearing the way for much more-talented kids to progress if they deserve to at some point, it also added TWO players with much-higher ceilings in Jackson and Lindgren who could play much more important roles in the future if they somehow work out. Given how good we've been at picking up relievers off the scrap heap, Gant, Ellis, and Povse were arguably three of the most "expendable" players in our system.

I've said all along that I don't think a couple trades like this will move the meter at all - just don't fall in love with so many "upside" guys that you eventually kill the depth we have by making too many of them.
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the roster management thing is a real factor. Braves had too many fifth starter/swing man types in the upper levels to do something with all of them.

I'd absolutely rather have Jaime Garcia, a lefty, in the MLB rotation than any of those guys. And those guys likely didn't have much trade value beyond what was recovered.

Braves traded organization depth for two assets that their current clubs didn't want anymore. I think that's about all the trades were, except that I think Garcia is someone that can be rehabilitated into having significant trade value and prospect is something you can at least dream big on.
 
I am fine with trading from depth. I just don't like taking assets that haven't matured yet and throwing them at a lottery ticket. Whalen/Ellis/gant/posve is definitely depth we can replace. But trading them too soon could see us wishing we still had that value for deadline trades or next off season. I just don't like Jackson for Povse. I feel we sold him to low.
 
clvclv said:
On Minors And Majors with Grant Paulsen -

Mentioned that Rule V Draft day is one of the five busiest days of every year on the site - more hits than June draft. Several guys that throw 100 will be available.

Braves' notes...

1.) Braves updated Top 10 comes out Friday - have a legitimate shot at breaking the Royals' record of 9 Top 100 guys. 12-13 are under consideration as of right now.

2.) Talked with between 6-8 Scouting Directors who asked "why does Alex Jackson even make the Braves' Top 30?" Said he doesn't work, doesn't adjust, isn't a good teammate - the only positive thing on his ledger is that he was the #6 overall pick when he was chosen. They've been hearing that for a year and a half at this point. The red flags about makeup didn't show up until he got paid. Mentioned Denard Span as the only prospect in the last 20 years to become a big league regular after not making a full season roster in his first full year. Jackson didn't even do it in his second.

3.) Braves have as much high-ceiling talent as any other organization. Even with the Jackson concerns, he feels the trade was a reasonable flier for that reason.
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Sounds like Tyler Houston.
 
The Jackson comments were interesting. Don't think it was a huge gamble, and at least they know what they're up against. The acquisition has John Hart's influence all over it, for the response he had on MLB Network, as others have already mentioned. They must figure that he's young enough to turn things around.
 
Expect Jackson to be moved back to catcher, and if they're smart, they will make Eddie Perez his personal drill instructorf. Either he will get better and grow up, or wash out. Because if a young catcher can't get along with Perez, that means he is as bad a guy as it sounds. He'll be gone and soon forgotten.
 
clvclv said:
Back-to-back trips to the World Series notwithstanding, eh?
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http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/24/1772207/kansas-city-royals-top-20-prospects-for-2011

They didnt even produce one perennial all star. I dont see anyone on that list hitting anything close to what their perceived ceiling was. A lot of useful parts but nothing special. I doubt Odorizzi would be as good if he stayed with the Royals. The Rays have some of the best development systems whereas the Royals development is a dumpster fire. Their best players for their WS teams were Gordon who they already had and the players they got for trading Greinke. They were also very close to selling at the trade deadline the year they got to the first WS.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am fine with trading from depth. I just don't like taking assets that haven't matured yet and throwing them at a lottery ticket. Whalen/Ellis/gant/posve is definitely depth we can replace. But trading them too soon could see us wishing we still had that value for deadline trades or next off season. I just don't like Jackson for Povse. I feel we sold him to low.
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I'm not so sure Coppy doesn't have one more of these trades to thin out some of this depth for anoter lottery ticket up his sleeve still. Think about it, we still have...

Collmenter, Wisler, Blair, Newcomb, Blair, Perez, Jenkins, Weigel, Mader, Withrow, and Beech as potential AAA or AA SPs, and you also have Casey Kelly and Rob Wooten as spot-starters/swingmen, Then you have Biddle and Fried. On top of that, you've got Winkler, Hursh, Akeel Morris, Marksberry, Cuniff, Feigl, Brian Moran, Janas, Roney, Minter, Dirks, Pfeiffer, Evan Phillips, David Peterson, and several others as pen pieces at those levels.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a couple of those guys packaged to get someone like a Courtney Hawkins/Mason Williams/Jake Cave/Matt Olson/Max Pentecost type.
 
No idea who this Manuel guy is, but everyone proclaiming the Jackson trade a steal for the Braves should try to wrap their heads around what he said. The PosiBraves will obviously decide that Jackson will be the next Denard Span during their next circle jerk session, but the far most likely outcome is that he washes completely out of baseball before producing even 1 WAR.

Like I said the day the trade went down, it was an odd way for the Braves to spend pitching prospect value. Just because they probably weren't going to pitch for the Braves doesn't mean it was OK to spend that value on something so....odd.
 
Prospecting is all about taking chances. What Jackson has is upside. We gave up low upside guys who might produce more than Jackson in the majors but it should be production we can easily make up for with any number of other pitchers. You cant win the lottery if you dont play. We traded two tickets with a 50% chance to win 5 bucks for a 1 in 1000 chance to win 500k.
 
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