Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect Rankings

C

CJ9

Well-known member
He's releasing 20 per day, and three days in, 41-100 are available. Today was a big one for Braves prospects. I'll keep updating as the next two days come out.

Here's the current list:

81. LHP Sean Newcomb
77. LHP Luiz Gohara
59. SS Kevin Maitan
52. RHP Ian Anderson
50. LHP Max Fried
36. OF Ronald Acuna
32. LHP Kolby Allard
26. 2B Ozzie Albies
2. SS Dansby Swanson

Nine of the top 81 prospects.
 
Personally I think Newcomb is way too low and Gohara is too high. There's no reason for Newcomb to have dropped like he did on so many lists. He had a pretty decent season. I'd probably have him between 40 and 50.

I also don't really get why Ian Anderson is so high. I would hold off putting him in the top 100 until he showed something.

Fried is about where I'd put him though I think he'll jump up the lists this year.
 
striker42 said:
Personally I think Newcomb is way too low and Gohara is too high. There's no reason for Newcomb to have dropped like he did on so many lists. He had a pretty decent season. I'd probably have him between 40 and 50.

I also don't really get why Ian Anderson is so high. I would hold off putting him in the top 100 until he showed something.

Fried is about where I'd put him though I think he'll jump up the lists this year.
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Prospect fatigue.
 
Touki will be on this list.

Agreed on Newcomb. Minor league hitters have proven they have no chance of hitting him.
 
striker42 said:
Yeah, probably.
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I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.
 
I would have Touki on before Anderson personally. Anderson is only getting credit for his draft position. I would love to see Acuna on there, but not sure he has enough cred to make it. But like someone already said, Law loves the kid.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I would have Touki on before Anderson personally. Anderson is only getting credit for his draft position. I would love to see Acuna on there, but not sure he has enough cred to make it. But like someone already said, Law loves the kid.
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Andersons ranking is much more than his draft position.
 
These lists are nice but remember placement in no way effects future performance. If Newcomb is 25th or 75th makes no difference in his actual performance.
 
Southcack77 said:
I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.
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The fact that Newcomb duplicated what he had been doing at AA is a pretty big deal. The jump from A ball to AA ball is a very hard jump to make and he did it successfully last year.

I could understand a small drop due to his continued control issues. We'd all have liked to see him reduce his BBs last year and every year he doesn't do it makes it less likely he will. But even with those walks he was still dominating.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Anyone think Soroka has a shot over Touki in this list?
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I don't think Soroka has the buzz because of who is surrounding him. Allard/Fried/Touki raise a few more eyebrows because of the high quality of their stuff. Sorokas might play up more because of his ability to control his arsenal as well as play with speed changes. Those guys usually need to show it at a higher level to get notoriety.
 
Southcack77 said:
I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.
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Newcomb pretty much duplicating what he did in 2015 was kind of the problem though. I think a lot of his aggressive rankings in the past were based on projections that his control would improve. But in 2016, it really didn't. I think that's why we are seeing most sites drop him, and I don't really blame them for that.

I do agree that his strong close gives me a little more hope for him. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come in 2017.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Anyone think Soroka has a shot over Touki in this list?
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He does, but I'm not sure what Law thinks of him. He usually values upside more, and he may see Soroka as lacking the upside of guys like Fried, Gohara, and Newcomb. Having Soroka 10th or worse in our system would seem strange, though.
 
CJ9 said:
Newcomb pretty much duplicating what he did in 2015 was kind of the problem though. I think a lot of his aggressive rankings in the past were based on projections that his control would improve. But in 2016, it really didn't. I think that's why we are seeing most sites drop him, and I don't really blame them for that.

I do agree that his strong close gives me a little more hope for him. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come in 2017.
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but when you have Kemp, Markakis and Garcia playing defense Ks and walks are fine. Putting the ball in play is just going to cause problems. Might as well walk them.

From the people that actually watch Newcombe they all seem to think he just loses focus. Klaw's write up makes it sound like it's a mystery flaw. He could be a guy like Cabrera that just needs the challenge/shock/whatever of being put in from of MLB hitters. Even if he struggles maybe it would be the butt kicking that he needs to focus more.
 
Just saw an interesting point on Twitter. In his team prospect rankings, Law said that Anderson couldn't make the top six in the Atlanta system, meaning he was likely seventh. With Fried being sixth in our system (according to today's rankings), that means we still have five players left in his top 40. Pretty safe to assume Swanson, Albies, Allard and Acuna are four of them. Who would be the fifth? Touki or Soroka are probably the best bets, maybe Soroka? Law has always been a huge Touki fan, as others have mentioned, so I'd probably lean him.
 
Russ2dollas said:
but when you have Kemp, Markakis and Garcia playing defense Ks and walks are fine. Putting the ball in play is just going to cause problems. Might as well walk them.

From the people that actually watch Newcombe they all seem to think he just loses focus. Klaw's write up makes it sound like it's a mystery flaw. He could be a guy like Cabrera that just needs the challenge/shock/whatever of being put in from of MLB hitters. Even if he struggles maybe it would be the butt kicking that he needs to focus more.
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I've watched a good bit of video on Newcomb and his walks look to be related to his mechanics getting out of whack. He'll cruise for several innings, his delivery will look absolutely smooth, and he'll be hitting the catcher's glove. Then suddenly things will get out of sync for some reason, he loses his release point, and he starts walking the world. It reminds me of a young Kimbrel in that respect.

Mike Scocia got to see him in ST one year and agrees about him losing his release point. ""He needs some refinement," Scioscia said. "He has to find his release point. Part of it is, 'How do you get back in sync when you lose it?' There's a lot of things in a pitcher's progression that he needs to figure out.""

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/articl...rospect-sean-newcomb-among-seven-angels-cuts/

Considering Newcomb's relative inexperience at the position, it's not surprising he'd still have points where he gets out of sync and loses his release point. The good thing is that's something that should get better with experience.
 
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