Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

thewupk said:
How many singles does he turn into doubles because he is slow? Kemp is a bad defensive outfielder. I think everybody sees that but homers on this board.
Click to expand...

So point them out. Like I said I can clearly remember 2 plays where I said that was a bad play.

The thing about these defensive metrics is that we have no clue how they are claculated. We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder. Everyone just closes their eyes and treats them like the gospel.

Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.
 
thewupk said:
Excellent? We'll see how his numbers shake out when his BABIP isn't above 400. He's probably going to end up in the 120-125 WRC+ range offensively is about what I expected.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't think KEMvP has been near as bad as you KEMvP haters predicted
 
Kemp is mashing the ball, and that's really all I care about. His defense is bad by the eye test (IMO) and that will probably be borne out in the numbers by the end of the year.
 
thethe said:
Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.
Click to expand...

There is plenty of subjectivity... offensive stat don't account for bloops, and softly hit balls that find holes, and whether or not the defense was in a shift or not.

The argument can be played both ways.

Kemp is pretty dagon awful out there. I remember several plays where I would have assumed the ball could have been caught but it drops in front of him. I also see several plays where the left fielder should be making the play, but Ender does instead. And then the fact that he hurt his hamstring diving for a ball a normal left fielder catches standing up, causing him to miss 2 weeks, also has negative value.

Kemp will be a good player for us if he continues to hit this well. If he continues to hit this well, he will be out performing the last 4 years of his career at age 32... impossible? no. improbably? yes.
 
thethe said:
So point them out. Like I said I can clearly remember 2 plays where I said that was a bad play.

The thing about these defensive metrics is that we have no clue how they are claculated. We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder. Everyone just closes their eyes and treats them like the gospel.

Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.
Click to expand...

Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

5 Star Ranking Breakdown:
5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

Now here are their DRS numbers

Duvall: +2
Kemp: -3
Melky: -2
Upton: +4
Gardner: +5
Tomas: -5

A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
 
thewupk said:
Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

5 Star Ranking Breakdown:
5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

Now here are their DRS numbers

Duvall: +2
Kemp: -3
Melky: -2
Upton: +4
Gardner: +5
Tomas: -5

A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
Click to expand...

well do these three or four star play opportunities count if none of us saw them and they occurred in innings where no runs scored
 
thewupk said:
If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
Click to expand...

Yup. And if a guy hits a triple but no runs score and no one sees it, should it count. I mean real baseball fans only consider things that directly lead to runs and that they can see with their own eyes to be of importance. The game is played on a field not a spreadsheet!

Excel has ruined baseball! Enough of this nonsense!
 
Another thing of note is that park factors for Sun Trust are finally kicking in. Kemp has a 997 OPS but only a 155 OPS+ whereas Corey Dickerson of the Rays has a 942 OPS with a 162 OPS+. Raw OPS numbers in Atlanta are going to be inflated. Something to keep in mind.
 
thewupk said:
Another thing of note is that park factors for Sun Trust are finally kicking in. Kemp has a 997 OPS but only a 155 OPS+ whereas Corey Dickerson of the Rays has a 942 OPS with a 162 OPS+. Raw OPS numbers in Atlanta are going to be inflated. Something to keep in mind.
Click to expand...

true or false? you live in your parents' basement
 
thewupk said:
Physically? About 3 years. Can we really trust what we see on tv?
Click to expand...

Not really. TV images can be altered to be misleading. Some of the balls that Kemp didn't catch were actually much more difficult than they looked on TV. Plus TV doesn't show actual conditions including wind and glare from the sun or the stadium lights or cellphone camera flashes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top