nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Let's start by looking at four key numbers as he has moved up: walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO and BABIP.
2012 Low A (age 21): 13.7%, 23.9%, .154, .310
2013 High A (age 22): 15.2%, 25.0%, .154, .344
2014 AA (age 23): 14.0%, 24.7%, .153, .370
A few things stand out. One is the stability of his walk rate, strikeout rate and ISO numbers as he has moved up. The walk rate is very good, but I'd like to see a little lower strikeout rate. However, if I had to choose between a player like Kubitza or a player with a 5% walk rate and 15% strikeout rate, I'd rather have the former.
His BABIP has always been high, but looks to be on the high side of what is sustainable this year.
Kubitza has played a little old at each level, while sustaining a consistent level of performance while moving up one level a year. AA is usually the level where the wheat gets separated from the chaff as far as prospects go. His success at that level has really increased his chances of having a big league career. If he continues progressing one level a year, he would reach the majors in 2016 as a 25 year old. The key question is can he maintain the kind of numbers he's put up the past three years as he moves up to AAA and hopefully the majors. There are no guarantees but I think he is becoming an intriguing prospect.
Defensively, he is supposed to be fairly athletic with a good arm, but he makes a fair number of errors at third. He has some speed with 9 stolen bases in 10 attempts this year. In past years, he's had a lower success rate stealing bases. Last year was especially bad with 8 steals and 16 caught stealings. He has played a small number of games in the outfield. With his arm and mobility, he should be able to handle both corner outfield spots. I presume he could play first as well if needed.
He has a slightly higher OPS against lefties than righties this season, which is consistent with his tendency in his minor league career to post reverse splits.
So what does my crystal ball say about Kubitza? The most likely scenario is that his performance numbers decline a bit as he moves up to AAA and the majors. This would leave him as a useful bench player who can play all the corner infield and outfield spots and can be used against both righties and lefties. But I think there is about a 25% chance that he sustains the level of performance as he moves up. And that's an .800 OPS player who hits lefties just as well as righties. In today's game, that's good enough to start in the majors, whether it be at third or one of the corner outfield spots. Even for a first baseman that would not be bad. To cite a comp, Adam LaRoche has a career OPS of .813.
2012 Low A (age 21): 13.7%, 23.9%, .154, .310
2013 High A (age 22): 15.2%, 25.0%, .154, .344
2014 AA (age 23): 14.0%, 24.7%, .153, .370
A few things stand out. One is the stability of his walk rate, strikeout rate and ISO numbers as he has moved up. The walk rate is very good, but I'd like to see a little lower strikeout rate. However, if I had to choose between a player like Kubitza or a player with a 5% walk rate and 15% strikeout rate, I'd rather have the former.
His BABIP has always been high, but looks to be on the high side of what is sustainable this year.
Kubitza has played a little old at each level, while sustaining a consistent level of performance while moving up one level a year. AA is usually the level where the wheat gets separated from the chaff as far as prospects go. His success at that level has really increased his chances of having a big league career. If he continues progressing one level a year, he would reach the majors in 2016 as a 25 year old. The key question is can he maintain the kind of numbers he's put up the past three years as he moves up to AAA and hopefully the majors. There are no guarantees but I think he is becoming an intriguing prospect.
Defensively, he is supposed to be fairly athletic with a good arm, but he makes a fair number of errors at third. He has some speed with 9 stolen bases in 10 attempts this year. In past years, he's had a lower success rate stealing bases. Last year was especially bad with 8 steals and 16 caught stealings. He has played a small number of games in the outfield. With his arm and mobility, he should be able to handle both corner outfield spots. I presume he could play first as well if needed.
He has a slightly higher OPS against lefties than righties this season, which is consistent with his tendency in his minor league career to post reverse splits.
So what does my crystal ball say about Kubitza? The most likely scenario is that his performance numbers decline a bit as he moves up to AAA and the majors. This would leave him as a useful bench player who can play all the corner infield and outfield spots and can be used against both righties and lefties. But I think there is about a 25% chance that he sustains the level of performance as he moves up. And that's an .800 OPS player who hits lefties just as well as righties. In today's game, that's good enough to start in the majors, whether it be at third or one of the corner outfield spots. Even for a first baseman that would not be bad. To cite a comp, Adam LaRoche has a career OPS of .813.
