nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Looks like the court packing bill is DOA. Pelosi has said it's not getting to the floor and that she supports Biden's commission.
This makes me speculate what the full plan is for the commission. It could be one of a couple things. First, it could just be an attempt to placate the base while not inciting the right too much. The far left is where you see the most push for court packing. These are also the people most likely to vote in primaries. The commission could give Democrats in congress cover from getting primaried. There are also Democrats in less than safe districts who can't afford to stir up voter turnout against them. The commission is less likely to stir up Republicans than an actual bill being voted on. The commission could just be a way to avoid the question for the moment.
The alternative is that the commission could be a way to try to lure in the moderates that would be necessary to pack the court. Several Democrats are already on the record in opposition of court packing. A commission that concludes there are many non-partisan benefits to packing the court could give those moderates some cover to tow the party line and get a bill through both houses. The filibuster would have to die (or at least be rolled back from judicial bills) but if you have 50 votes then I doubt the filibuster would be the stumbling block.
I'm not sure what the true purpose of this commission is. I highly doubt it's to try to uncover new truths about the SCOTUS. This isn't some new and emerging issue. There's a political reason. Either it's designed to further the idea of court packing or it's designed to suppress it.
I'm going to guess that the most substantive recommendations from the commission will have to do with the lower courts in the federal system. Some of the circuits have big backlogs of cases and need more judges.
I also had a thought about the Supreme Court and retirement ages. Maybe have every justice take senior status by age 80. Obviously it would have to be worked out what senior status entails. But it would automatically create a new opening whenever they reach 80.
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