Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
This feels like weird timing for them to sign Arrieta, but I guess they have a lot of money
Let's predict who signs the remaining FAs
- Thread starter Enscheff
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This feels like weird timing for them to sign Arrieta, but I guess they have a lot of money
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
9 war might be a stretch. I am thinking 6 or less.
9 wins probably makes you the high man on Arrieta.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Arrieta’s declining velocity is truly worrisome. I understand the signing but I’m glad we didn’t do it.
msstate7
Well-known member
Nah, we gonna smash that clown
Southcack77
Well-known member
Not really realistic for Phillies to contend but they are spending much money to at least look like it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Dodgers, gnats and Cubs are the Big 3 in the NL. Phillies are one of many who could grab a wild card spot.
The Marlins are probably the only team definitively out of contention for a WC spot.
Southcack77
Well-known member
WC? Maybe. Probably not. Doubtful.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Walker to the Stankees. Who got that one.
For 1 year and $5M. Looks like they are going to be able to delay Torres and Andujar without missing much of anything.
Solid pick up for them, and extremely good value.
The Arrieta contract is fascinating. It breaks down as:
2018: $30M guaranteed
2019: $25M guaranteed
After the 2019 season, Arrieta can either opt in for:
2020: $20M guaranteed
However, if Arrieta opts out, the Phils can counter the opt out by invoking the following 2 year team option:
2020: $20M guaranteed
2021: $20M guaranteed
Both option years go up to $30M based on innings pitched and CYA finishes.
This is the first time I have seen a contract give a player an opt out, but then also give the team a way to counter the opt out...almost completely nullifying the purpose of the opt out.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
the circumstances where Arrieta opts out and the Phillies fail to counter look to be fairly narrow
Going into his age 33 season he would almost have to be looking for a 3 year deal worth ~$50M, where the Phils would not be interested in having him for 2/40 or 2/50 (his days of CYA contention are almost certainly over, so getting the options up to $30M per year is not really possible). It would most likely just be a way for Arrieta to force the Phils to add the extra year by opting out.
If Arrieta could reasonably expect 3/60+ going into his age 33 season (highly unlikely), there's no way the Phils wouldn't keep him at 2/50 (assuming he reached the inning incentives that allowed him to consider opting out for 3/60+).
The most likely outcome is Arrieta continues to decline as a mid-30s pitcher and simply plays out the 3 guaranteed years before becoming a FA who plays the rest of his career on 1 year deals to fill in rotation holes.
Legit WC contenders in 2018? No.
Better than the Braves? Yes.
The Phils are set up with a pretty good young set of players, and much more financial might than the Braves. I expect them to be serious bidders on Harper and Machado this offseason. As the Nats decline the Phils will be on the upswing.
All the Braves can hope for is that the Phils continue to sign dumb deals like the Santana deal (pushing Hoskins to LF) and waste the financial advantage they have over the Braves. Otherwise it will be hard to compete against a $180M payroll with a $125M payroll.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Woo Hoo
Got another...
Got another...
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Bowden- The reality is that the #Braves #Diamondbacks & #Cardinals have all touched base with Boras Corp regarding their client Greg Holland. At this point NONE of them feel like they can be competitive financially based on the “range” being asked for. Holland should take best offer.