Lineup Optimzation

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Plugging in the following numbers in the lineup analysis tool (OBP/SLG):

Heyward .350/.400
Justin .375/.500
Freeman .390/.500
Gattis .290/.500
BJ .290/.350
CJ .320/.320
TLS .350/.350
Simmons .300/.400
pitcher .150/.150

and throwing out any lineups where Freeman bats leadoff, the top lineups are:

4.442 Heyward Freeman CJ Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher TLS
4.442 Heyward Justin CJ Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher TLS
4.441 TLS Freeman Heyward Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.441 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.441 Heyward Freeman TLS Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.441 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.440 Heyward Freeman CJ Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher TLS
4.440 Heyward Justin CJ Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher TLS
4.440 TLS Freeman Heyward Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4.440 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4.439 Heyward Freeman TLS Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4.439 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4.439 Justin Freeman CJ Gattis Heyward Simmons BJ pitcher TLS
4.438 Justin Freeman TLS Gattis Heyward Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.437 Justin Freeman CJ Gattis Heyward BJ Simmons pitcher TLS
4.437 Justin Freeman TLS Gattis Heyward BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4.428 Justin Freeman Heyward Gattis TLS Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
4.427 Justin Heyward CJ Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher TLS

We can immediately throw out any lineups with CJ in the top half, realize that Justin is not leading off, and remove any with the LHers hitting 3 in a row, leaving us with:

1) 4.441 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
2) 4.441 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ
3) 4.440 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ
4) 4.439 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

It's pretty clear that Justin hits 2nd, Gattis hits 4th, Freeman hits 5th, Simmons and BJ hit 6/7, pitcher hits 8th, and CJ hits 9th. The only postions that are unclear is TLS or Heyward in the 1 and 3 holes, so I personally stick Heyward in the 3 hole and go with option #3. If someone has a major fit about the pitcher batting 8th, go ahead and slot CJ between BJ and Simmons.
 
Just want to point out that Heyward is awesome. Brought up his BA several points as well as his OBP.

Any room left on the we need to trade Heyward because he's useless and a glorified defender bandwagon? When our offense woke up against St. Louis and Colorado last year, it was Heyward that set the table hitting leadoff... he struggled out the gate, but we're seeing the awesome Jason showing up and it's only a matter of time until he starts hitting for more power. He can turn a single into a double better than anyone can, he's going to be hitting homeruns again soon like his rookie season.
 
Enscheff said:
Plugging in the following numbers in the lineup analysis tool (OBP/SLG):

Heyward .350/.400

Justin .375/.500

Freeman .390/.500

Gattis .290/.500

BJ .290/.350

CJ .320/.320

TLS .350/.350

Simmons .300/.400

pitcher .150/.150

and throwing out any lineups where Freeman bats leadoff, the top lineups are:

4.442 Heyward Freeman CJ Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher TLS

4.442 Heyward Justin CJ Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher TLS

4.441 TLS Freeman Heyward Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.441 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.441 Heyward Freeman TLS Gattis Justin Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.441 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.440 Heyward Freeman CJ Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher TLS

4.440 Heyward Justin CJ Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher TLS

4.440 TLS Freeman Heyward Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4.440 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4.439 Heyward Freeman TLS Gattis Justin BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4.439 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4.439 Justin Freeman CJ Gattis Heyward Simmons BJ pitcher TLS

4.438 Justin Freeman TLS Gattis Heyward Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.437 Justin Freeman CJ Gattis Heyward BJ Simmons pitcher TLS

4.437 Justin Freeman TLS Gattis Heyward BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4.428 Justin Freeman Heyward Gattis TLS Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

4.427 Justin Heyward CJ Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher TLS

We can immediately throw out any lineups with CJ in the top half, realize that Justin is not leading off, and remove any with the LHers hitting 3 in a row, leaving us with:

1) 4.441 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

2) 4.441 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman Simmons BJ pitcher CJ

3) 4.440 TLS Justin Heyward Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

4) 4.439 Heyward Justin TLS Gattis Freeman BJ Simmons pitcher CJ

It's pretty clear that Justin hits 2nd, Gattis hits 4th, Freeman hits 5th, Simmons and BJ hit 6/7, pitcher hits 8th, and CJ hits 9th. The only postions that are unclear is TLS or Heyward in the 1 and 3 holes, so I personally stick Heyward in the 3 hole and go with option #3. If someone has a major fit about the pitcher batting 8th, go ahead and slot CJ between BJ and Simmons.
Click to expand...

It is also pretty clear that lineup construction matters very little, once you get the basics down.
 
gilesfan said:
I would trade Heyward in a heartbeat if someone wants to buy him based on his potential .
Click to expand...

What would you be looking to get in return? Because if it's not a player who is very productive now, that would be a serious hit to our playoff hopes.
 
Who knows, I doubt he would be traded. The doubt the team buying him is going to trade premium prospects for his potential. Im assuming they would likely try to buy low based on his lack of "great" hitting the past couple years. Plus the return would have to be a corner outfielder bc there isn't anything to replace Heyward.
 
There is no way a team would give up something for Heyward that would exceed his value to the team right now unless the FO believe that he is leaving for NY in two years.
 
Fredi is not going to remove Hewyard from leadoff. And I have my doubts about BJ getting moved from the 2 hole.
 
gilesfan said:
I would trade Heyward in a heartbeat if someone wants to buy him based on his potential .
Click to expand...

Pretty much this.

Not to mention he has already shown to be pretty difficult to sign to an extension. If someone wants to give us a big haul for him that includes a top 20ish hitting prospect, then I'm all for it (in the off season of course). Let him go be an enigma for someone else. If we can't get proper value, then keep him and try to resign him to a reasonable deal or let him walk and get the pick.
 
Haven't watched any action. I think leaving La Stella where he is (7th/8th) has the advantage of helping turn the line-up over.

Heyward is fine in the lead-off role. The Reds' moved Votto to the #2 hole, largely because his approach is that of a #2 hitter. Heyward has enough power to play further down in the line-up, but he's looking fine at lead-off. Walks some. Good baserunner.
 
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