Look at Ex-SEC big name rookies

msstate7

msstate7

Well-known member
WAR is baseball reference

MLB avg exit velocity is 87.68

Hunter renfroe...

.216/.231/.392

WAR = -0.3; oWAR = -0.1, dWAR = -0.3

BABIP = .246

Exit velocity = 89.84

Dansby Swanson...

.156/.200/.233

WAR = -0.7; oWAR = -0.6, dWAR = 0.0

BABIP = .188

Exit velocity = 89.65

Andrew benintendi...

.333/.392/.478

WAR = 0.8; oWAR = 0.8, dWAR = 0.0

BABIP = .375

Exit velocity = 85.51

Alex bregman...

.250/.340/.310

WAR = 0.0; oWAR = 0.4, dWAR= -0.4

BABIP = .318

Exit velocity = 86.81

Is it a safe assumption that dansby has been very unlucky with an above average exit velocity, above average speed, but very low BABIP? Is there a correlation between BABIP and exit velocity?
 
It is a very safe assumption. Only thing to worry about with Swanson K rate. As long as it doesn't get to high he's going to hit enough.
 
Dansby has clearly been incredibly unlucky. The numbers back up what you see when you watch, which is that he's hitting it hard and not being rewarded. They will start falling with regularity soon.

jpack is right, his K rate needs to come down. He'll likely always K at a little higher rate than normal for guys with his profile, but he needs to at least get it down to around 18-20%. But he'll be fine. Bregman is much more worrisome, IMO, even though he's walking a good bit and getting on base.
 
There's a little more in Dansby's plate discipline and contact numbers to be concerned about, but in such a SSS it could just be noise from the few games of him pressing in the midst of a slump.

I think that the exit velocity number, his generally good plate discipline, and his makeup will mean that he will level out and be fine (with the caveat that I'm a little more bearish on where he'll settle). I think dropping down the order has been good for him, and I think his last couple of games have probably saved him from a trip to Gwinnett. I wrote last year that the FO probably believes that he is well-equipped to handle either success or failure in early exposure, and I think that's still true.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exit-velocity-part-i-on-the-import-of-exit-velocity-for-hitters/

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/is-exit-velocity-important/

Exit velocity correlates very well to slugging but not BABIP. Lots of other factors to factor in besides just how hard you hit the ball

To add further. Exit velocity is important. The harder you hit it the more likely you will get a hit to a point. But launch angle matters. Pulling or going the opposite way matters, etc.

Swanson has been unlucky in the BABIP dept but his issues do go beyond that.
 
thewupk said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exit-velocity-part-i-on-the-import-of-exit-velocity-for-hitters/

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/is-exit-velocity-important/

Exit velocity correlates very well to slugging but not BABIP. Lots of other factors to factor in besides just how hard you hit the ball

To add further. Exit velocity is important. The harder you hit it the more likely you will get a hit to a point. But launch angle matters. Pulling or going the opposite way matters, etc.

Swanson has been unlucky in the BABIP dept but his issues do go beyond that.
Click to expand...

Swanson's exit velocity is above avg and slugging is abysmal. What explains that then?

I'm asking bc I don't know. I'm not trying to be smart or anything
 
thewupk said:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exit-velocity-part-i-on-the-import-of-exit-velocity-for-hitters/

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/is-exit-velocity-important/

Exit velocity correlates very well to slugging but not BABIP. Lots of other factors to factor in besides just how hard you hit the ball

To add further. Exit velocity is important. The harder you hit it the more likely you will get a hit to a point. But launch angle matters. Pulling or going the opposite way matters, etc.

Swanson has been unlucky in the BABIP dept but his issues do go beyond that.
Click to expand...

So how does this jive with the lack of a relationship between exit velocity and BABIP? I think we all agree that your statement is true, so why is it not showing up in BABIP numbers?

And if his issues go beyond a lack of BABIP luck, then what are they? We've already identified his K rate, which is not good but certainly doesn't explain the depth of his lack of results. So what are those issues, since you seem to confident in your knowledge of them?
 
msstate7 said:
Swanson's exit velocity is above avg and slugging is abysmal. What explains that then?

I'm asking bc I don't know. I'm not trying to be smart or anything
Click to expand...

Some of it is bad luck. Part of it is you need actual hits to fall in before it counts as slugging. If those hits he had bad luck were to fall in then you would see his slugging rise to a level that would be consistent with his exit velocity.
 
smootness said:
So how does this jive with the lack of a relationship between exit velocity and BABIP? I think we all agree that your statement is true, so why is it not showing up in BABIP numbers?

And if his issues go beyond a lack of BABIP luck, then what are they? We've already identified his K rate, which is not good but certainly doesn't explain the depth of his lack of results. So what are those issues, since you seem to confident in your knowledge of them?
Click to expand...

For your average major leaguer that statement isn't true so I probably shouldn't have said that. But the point I was trying to make is that weak ass contact (like those by pitchers) isn't going to yield a good BABIP. Your average major leaguer doesn't do this.

As far as his other issues besides striking out. BB% for one. His is piss poor. It sucked last year too when you take out the IBB he got for hitting 8th.

Swanson's xBABIP is around 290 which is pretty much league average. His actual BABIP is 188. So a 100 points difference or so in BABIP. That is pretty large. But honestly it would just take him from the 433 OPS he has now to somewhere in the low to mid 600's. That is still not good.

For someone who currently doesn't have good power. Swanson has a couple of options to be a good hitter. Walk more or strike out less. Preferablly a combo of both. With his issue with the slider that's going to be hard to do currently.

tldr: Normalizing Swanson's BABIP would improve his numbers a lot. Still not to the point you would want. Still has work to do. Exit velocity does not correlate to BABIP.
 
msstate7 said:
Andrew benintendi...
.333/.392/.478
WAR = 0.8; oWAR = 0.8, dWAR = 0.0
BABIP = .375
Exit velocity = 85.51
Click to expand...

I remember last year when multiple people on these boards told me Benintendi wasn't good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for Julio. And I was called an idiot for thinking Benintendi had a decent shot to hit 5 WAR once or twice during his first 6 full seasons. Good times.
 
auyushu said:
I remember last year when multiple people on these boards told me Benintendi wasn't good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for Julio. And I was called an idiot for thinking Benintendi had a decent shot to hit 5 WAR once or twice during his first 6 full seasons. Good times.
Click to expand...

I was really disappointed Julio wasn't traded. Always seemed to pitch above his ability.

Oh well. Coppy knows best
 
auyushu said:
I remember last year when multiple people on these boards told me Benintendi wasn't good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for Julio. And I was called an idiot for thinking Benintendi had a decent shot to hit 5 WAR once or twice during his first 6 full seasons. Good times.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's a pretty moronic point of view. Of course the Red Sox aren't dumb enough to offer such a deal anyways. As I stated last trade deadline and last offseason the Red Sox were going to after a true talent ace. Not a pitcher where the bulk of his trade value is tied to his contract like Julio. Julio would of best been traded to a competing team on a limited budget.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah that's a pretty moronic point of view. Of course the Red Sox aren't dumb enough to offer such a deal anyways
Click to expand...

Yeah, there might have been an outside chance earlier in the season before he exploded in AA and Julio was pitching outstanding, but it was very slim and unlikely. Finding someone on a budget trying to compete in a short window was always the best option as you say. Too bad all the best options there recently needed hitting, not pitching for the most part.
 
sturg33 said:
I remember people saying they wouldn't trade him for less than Benintendi and Moancada
Click to expand...

The thing w/ Tehran is we didn't have to deal him. We still have him cheaply for years. He could be a 4 and still have a decent deal.

With the lack of pitchers we should have held out for a ransom. Not the BM you mentioned, but one of those guys yes.

We have plenty of solid guys in the minors. I don't want to deal JT unless we get a potential difference maker.
 
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