Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[tululush]

Why can't you expect to compete on one year deals? Such a strange point of view.

Ozuna has 1.5 notable seasons in his career and is a borderline disaster in the field and you want the Braves to bid against themselves es giving him big money? That would be pretty unwise.

Signing a player to a 1 year deal and then expecting them to perform like an elite player every single year is a risky gamble. At some point one of these 1 year deals is going to flop at the expense of re-signing one of them long term when they fit a need.

I agree, don't bid against yourself. I'm not saying throw a mega deal at him, but if the only reported deal out there right now is a 1 year offer from Tampa, just outbid them with a few more million for the year, or offer him 2 years. Yes, his defense sucks, but it sucked in 2019 and AA still felt comfortable with him playing 1 season in left. The dh is almost certainly coming in 2022 so Ozuna will only see 1 year in left. Have a late inning replacement for him and it'll be fine. He's not the best out there but he's certainly not Manny level bad with dives to cut off the cut off man. And if he has Pache and Acuna manning the other two spots, he legit only has to worry about such a small area in the outfield. I just don't see the downside to signing him to a reasonable deal that is slightly more than what is rumored to already be on the table. Now if Ozuna ends up signing 4/100 then so be it. Can't fault AA for passing on that, but if he passes on something doable it'll be pretty disappointing.

 

[tululush]

And when the Braves blow their window with a bad contract and win nothing will you tell Alex, it's ok that's what you wanted or will you accuse him of mortgaging the future to produce a loser...like Frank Wren?

Mortgaging the future would be dealing Pache for an averageish bat. Or signing Ozuna or another player to a 5+ year deal. Neither of which is what most of us are calling for him to do. Dealing Waters and some other pieces for an impact bat like JRam or Chapman is a fair deal. Signing Ozuna to a 3 or 4 year deal with an AAV of 18-20 million won't cripple the team beyond repair. He's 30, not 34 like Donaldson was last year, or 36 like Turner is this year. He's a safe bet to be a big bat for the next 3 or 4 years, especially if he's not playing the field.

 

[tululush]

Since we are quoting Instagram, Ozuna basically insinuated the Tampa deal is fake because until him or his agent release news it isn’t official.

Reading between the lines kinda points to there being an offer on the table.

He said Braves have not offered him anything. He also sus he should be signing soon, “let’s see what happens this week and the next”

If AA hasn't submitted an offer to Ozuna by now then it's safe to assume he isn't going to. Lol what is he waiting on? I understand not bidding against yourself, but submitting ONE offer isn't bidding against yourself, it's making an attempt to sign someone with a starting point. He may not want to increase his offer beyond that, but to offer nothing says to me he's not interested in bringing him back. If this is true, it's very disappointing.

 

[tululush]

If the Braves were truly willing to be the 1 year fallback option for both Springer and JTR then they have at least $20M to add offense.

As others have said, there’s no way AA dropped $11M on Smyly and put himself in a position where he couldn’t fix the offense.

I know we keep saying this, but what if this truly is the case.

What if AA's plan was to load up on starting pitching, add one pen arm, and then roll the dice on offense? I think it's a terrible way to build the 2021 team, but nobody cares how I feel lol. Having 1/3 of your lineup consisting of Ender, Pache and Riley is going to be a huge offensive suck to watch this season.

Call me pessimistic, but the way this is playing out I don't think AA has any interest in re-signing Ozuna. I think he's content with how the offense is currently constructed and may add a lesser bat like Puig. That poses a whole host of other questions, but we can talk about them if we sign him.

 

[Carp]

Considering the names the Braves have been attached to (JTR, Arenado, Ramirez, Ozuna, Bryant) I think it's fairly likely AA has money to spend and some sort of a plan in mind to replace Ozuna and Duvall. For everyone that's concerned that guys like Pederson, Rosario, etc. have already signed for what seems like very fair prices, it's likely that these guys weren't serious considerations for AA (for whatever reason). Just because we think those players are good fits, doesn't mean AA feels the same way.

AA has a plan to upgrade the offense, whatever that may be. We have no clear starters at 2 OF positions currently. He will undoubtedly be bringing someone in.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

You have to be more forward thinking when it comes to the Ozuna (or JD) signings. What if paying either of those would prevent you from keeping Freddie or resigning Fried or Soroka or Anderson down the road. Then too you have to remember Acuna and Ozzie salaries keep rising. Corporate ownership is a different ballgame.

 

[Super]

Signing a player to a 1 year deal and then expecting them to perform like an elite player every single year is a risky gamble. At some point one of these 1 year deals is going to flop at the expense of re-signing one of them long term when they fit a need.

what is this logic?
if Ozuna signs for 4 years...he could still flop in year 1...
and then you're stuck with him, good or bad, for 3 more.

 

[Super]

Smyly was redundant. We didn't need to invest 11 million in him when we have pitchers in our system who can perform, and we also don't need to waste money on Luke Jackson if those types of deals prevent us from signing a much better player. The same could be said for Camargo. Meh.

i disagree that there are pitchers in the system who can perform. who?
do you want to gamble on Kyle Wright over a full season? Touki? Wilson? i don't.
teams need like 10 starters per year.

 

[Heyward]

It is a little worrisome we still havent gotten a big bat yet. Regarding Smyly, i mean Soroka may not be ready to go on Opening Day, and the other starters leave alot to be desired. Kyle Wright pitched better but still isnt someone to count on. I find it hard to believe AA signed Morton/Smyly and that's all he's gonna do this winter.

Regarding Ozuna, the Rays are notoriousally cheap, i find it hard to believe they'd be the high bidder on a 4 year deal for Ozuna. That's the exact opposite that franchise does. I can see them do a 1 year deal for him, but that's about it. If we dont get Ozuna or Turner, it would be time to worry though.

 

[Carp]

i disagree that there are pitchers in the system who can perform. who?
do you want to gamble on Kyle Wright over a full season? Touki? Wilson? i don't.
teams need like 10 starters per year.

I have faith that Wright or Wilson (or both) could be serviceable pitchers this year and perhaps mid rotation starters down the road. But I find it unlikely either one are better than league average in 2021. If either one started all year this year, I'd imagine them posting around 1 WAR for the season.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Do people think turner is leaving Cali. I feeling he is at the point of his career location is important. He is so involved in the LA area that if it comes down to LA and the Braves, the Braves would have to really top the LA offer.

 

[Heyward]

Do people think turner is leaving Cali. I feeling he is at the point of his career location is important. He is so involved in the LA area that if it comes down to LA and the Braves, the Braves would have to really top the LA offer.

I doubt he leaves the Dodgers, tbh, especially after LA losing Pederson and Hernandez. The money as you said would have to be extreme for him to leave, i'd think too. I think Dodgers get him back for a 2 year deal with a 3rd year team option. No one is giving him 4 guaranteed years.

 

[tululush]

what is this logic?
if Ozuna signs for 4 years...he could still flop in year 1...
and then you're stuck with him, good or bad, for 3 more.

Anyone could flop at any time. So should we never sign anyone long term again? I think signing someone to any contract carries some risk. But my point is, last year we said let’s pass on the 34 year old guy who has been injured before for the 29 year old guy. That’s a good risk. What are our options now? Pass on a 30 year old for a 36 year old who’s missed a lot of time every season who has said he wants a 4 year deal and his preference is to stay in LA? I’d be just as shocked if we signed Turner as I would if we traded Pache. Neither are happening. Neither fit with AA’s mindset. So if we miss on Ozuna, then what? We have two holes in the outfield. I’m not saying we should sign Ozuna to a 4 year deal. If we were, he’d be signed already. I’m saying 3 years max, and at 30, that’s not an awful risk. Certainly no more than anyone else. Nothing in his peripherals say he’s going to regress. Maybe a 2 year deal gets him? Hell, maybe a 1 year deal gets him. The only real rumored on in him is Tampa.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

And this whole talking point about AA bidding against himself. That seems like a stretch. Who has signed this year that was a head scratcher. Drew for us and less steller are the only two. And every trade seems to be right or very meh returns. So other teams seem to be getting work done without some cop out of he is waiting the market out’.

 

[Super]

Do people think turner is leaving Cali. I feeling he is at the point of his career location is important. He is so involved in the LA area that if it comes down to LA and the Braves, the Braves would have to really top the LA offer.

i've had the same thought, but he hasn't signed yet. if he were 100% intent on staying there no matter what, i feel like a deal would've been done quickly. every day he's hanging out there increases the odds he signs elsewhere, and Atlanta feels like the runner-up for his services.

 

[Southcack77]

Signing a player to a 1 year deal and then expecting them to perform like an elite player every single year is a risky gamble. At some point one of these 1 year deals is going to flop at the expense of re-signing one of them long term when they fit a need.

I agree, don't bid against yourself. I'm not saying throw a mega deal at him, but if the only reported deal out there right now is a 1 year offer from Tampa, just outbid them with a few more million for the year, or offer him 2 years. Yes, his defense sucks, but it sucked in 2019 and AA still felt comfortable with him playing 1 season in left. The dh is almost certainly coming in 2022 so Ozuna will only see 1 year in left. Have a late inning replacement for him and it'll be fine. He's not the best out there but he's certainly not Manny level bad with dives to cut off the cut off man. And if he has Pache and Acuna manning the other two spots, he legit only has to worry about such a small area in the outfield. I just don't see the downside to signing him to a reasonable deal that is slightly more than what is rumored to already be on the table. Now if Ozuna ends up signing 4/100 then so be it. Can't fault AA for passing on that, but if he passes on something doable it'll be pretty disappointing.

Signing a player to a long term deal increases the chances that a player ends up flopping.

It would suck and it would be a failure if Inciarte starts playoff games this year, but I don't think it is going to come to that.

 

[tululush]

i disagree that there are pitchers in the system who can perform. who?
do you want to gamble on Kyle Wright over a full season? Touki? Wilson? i don't.
teams need like 10 starters per year.

As a 4 and 5, Wilson and Wright are fine. And if you don’t think they are, then sign another starter for less than 11 or 14 million if it allows you to sign Ozuna. But based on how they performed last year, I think Wilson and Wright would be fine as a 4 and 5.

 

[Super]

And this whole talking point about AA bidding against himself. That seems like a stretch. Who has signed this year that was a head scratcher. Drew for us and less steller are the only two. And every trade seems to be right or very meh returns. So other teams seem to be getting work done without some cop out of he is waiting the market out’.

huh? no one said every single GM is waiting the market out.
there don't appear to be many bidders for Ozuna specifically right now. a report named the Braves, Rays, and Twins. Twins are out. why go and offer Ozuna a 4-year deal right now when you likely don't need to? Ozuna is trying to wait for that kind of deal to come. AA is trying to wait until Ozuna's asking price comes down. i'm not sure how teams making trades relates to that at all.

AA probably has dollar numbers for each guy he's comfortable with. AA had a number for Smyly and Morton and they came to it. Ozuna hasn't come down to that number yet.

like why don't you just be patient?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone could flop at any time. So should we never sign anyone long term again? I think signing someone to any contract carries some risk. But my point is, last year we said let’s pass on the 34 year old guy who has been injured before for the 29 year old guy. That’s a good risk. What are our options now? Pass on a 30 year old for a 36 year old who’s missed a lot of time every season who has said he wants a 4 year deal and his preference is to stay in LA? I’d be just as shocked if we signed Turner as I would if we traded Pache. Neither are happening. Neither fit with AA’s mindset. So if we miss on Ozuna, then what? We have two holes in the outfield. I’m not saying we should sign Ozuna to a 4 year deal. If we were, he’d be signed already. I’m saying 3 years max, and at 30, that’s not an awful risk. Certainly no more than anyone else. Nothing in his peripherals say he’s going to regress. Maybe a 2 year deal gets him? Hell, maybe a 1 year deal gets him. The only real rumored on in him is Tampa.

If we miss on Ozuna the only fall back is a big trade ( which AA hasn’t done in his 3 years) or bargain bin shopping to platoon LF and hope our kids progress with AA telling us that he tried but no ones price fit into his comfort zone.

 

[Super]

As a 4 and 5, Wilson and Wright are fine. And if you don’t think they are, then sign another starter for less than 11 or 14 million if it allows you to sign Ozuna. But based on how they performed last year, I think Wilson and Wright would be fine as a 4 and 5.

wow, uh, ok. i'd love to be so comfortable with those 2 guys as a 4&5, but i'm not at all. their performances last year were not good at all.
on top of that, you have to account for the inevitable injuries.
Wright and his 7.11 k/9 along with 5.68 bb/9 and 5.90 FIP is not even 5th starter worthy. and again, that's *before* injuries force him into a higher spot. no thanks. i am very glad pitching was addressed so aggressively.