Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

50PoundHead said:
The only problem I have with Ender is determining how wise it is to carry a caddy who is really become overly one-dimensional. Again, I'm old and back in the era of 10-man pitching staffs, teams would carry a third-catcher and a position player (or sometimes two) that were really defensive oriented guys. But when pitching staffs started to grow to 12 or 13, those were the guys who largely went the way of the dinosaur. We're likely going to be paying Ender because I don't see anyone willing to take him off our hands, but he has to do something with the bat to really warrant sticking around. Of course, a lot depends on the construction of the roster around him. If Pache is the everyday CF (and the DH becomes universal), it's not a backbreaker to keep Ender on board. That said, I'm not counting on a rebound from him.
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The defense appeared to "slip" this year - but that's from the eye test. Any numbers folks care to chime in on what the different metrics actually said (even though it was a relatively small sample size)?

Not sure how much the union would stand up and fight for either guy, but I think it'll be really interesting to see if (or more importantly WHAT) the Cardinals work out with Wong. They're in a somewhat similar situation with him - owed $12.5 million next year with a $1 million buyout. They'd like to keep him around, but certainly not at that price. Ender's due $9.7 million over BOTH years. IIRC, any contract "extension" can include guaranteeing an option as long as there's some money tacked on (IIRC that's the way they worked out at least one Chipper extension). I wonder if it's not worth at least approaching Ender and saying we'll guarantee 2022 for $1.3 million more dollars. It technically adds payroll, but would bring his AAV in each season down to $5.5 million, freeing up a little more for AA to move around this winter - while also allowing you to slow play Waters if you want to keep him down for the entire 2021 season. Even with his defense slipping, you're probably still better off with Inciate in a corner as a late-inning defensive replacement than Ozuna (or whatever bat you bring in to replace him) for the next two years.
 
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Enscheff said:
If Ender truly has fallen off a cliff then the best he can provide the organization is a bench option until Pache and/or Waters prove ready to force their way into the lineup. At that point whoever is playing the Markakis/Duvall role as bench player pretending to be an everyday player will move to the bench and Ender will be dropped.
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This is certainly the likeliest scenario, by far. But I don't think it's entirely fruitless to go truffle-pigging for the rare bad-money-for-bad-money swap that actually makes sense.
 
clvclv said:
The defense appeared to "slip" this year - but that's from the eye test. Any numbers folks care to chime in on what the different metrics actually said (even though it was a relatively small sample size)?

Not sure how much the union would stand up and fight for either guy, but I think it'll be really interesting to see if (or more importantly WHAT) the Cardinals work out with Wong. They're in a somewhat similar situation with him - owed $12.5 million next year with a $1 million buyout. They'd like to keep him around, but certainly not at that price. Ender's due $9.7 million over BOTH years. IIRC, any contract "extension" can include guaranteeing an option as long as there's some money tacked on (IIRC that's the way they worked out at least one Chipper extension). I wonder if it's not worth at least approaching Ender and saying we'll guarantee 2022 for $1.3 million more dollars. It technically adds payroll, but would bring his AAV in each season down to $5.5 million, freeing up a little more for AA to move around this winter - while also allowing you to slow play Waters if you want to keep him down for the entire 2021 season. Even with his defense slipping, you're probably still better off with Inciate in a corner as a late-inning defensive replacement than Ozuna (or whatever bat you bring in to replace him) for the next two years.
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I think it's far more likely they'll pay the $1m buyout than guarantee any money in excess of that to have him clog up the roster another season beyond next. His 2021 salary is somewhat onerous, but not egregious; meanwhile, fudging AAV numbers like you suggest is really only helpful for luxury-tax purposes (which seems ... unlikely to be an issue next year).
 
clvclv said:
The defense appeared to "slip" this year - but that's from the eye test. Any numbers folks care to chime in on what the different metrics actually said (even though it was a relatively small sample size)?

Not sure how much the union would stand up and fight for either guy, but I think it'll be really interesting to see if (or more importantly WHAT) the Cardinals work out with Wong. They're in a somewhat similar situation with him - owed $12.5 million next year with a $1 million buyout. They'd like to keep him around, but certainly not at that price. Ender's due $9.7 million over BOTH years. IIRC, any contract "extension" can include guaranteeing an option as long as there's some money tacked on (IIRC that's the way they worked out at least one Chipper extension). I wonder if it's not worth at least approaching Ender and saying we'll guarantee 2022 for $1.3 million more dollars. It technically adds payroll, but would bring his AAV in each season down to $5.5 million, freeing up a little more for AA to move around this winter - while also allowing you to slow play Waters if you want to keep him down for the entire 2021 season. Even with his defense slipping, you're probably still better off with Inciate in a corner as a late-inning defensive replacement than Ozuna (or whatever bat you bring in to replace him) for the next two years.
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His defense likely has slipped, but he's probably better than Duvall and could serve as a defensive replacement either for Duvall or my hoped-for platoon partner Pederson. If we carry 5 OFs, it makes sense to use Ender as a defensive replacement because then you'd still have the other end of the platoon as a possible pinch-hitter. We're all getting ahead of ourselves. I guess my point is Ender is probably a decent 5th OF if they carry 5. If 2020 is any indication, he's probably not going to hit enough to be a 4th OF. Again, it all depends on roster construction. Basically, Ender is the 25th guy in most scenarios.
 
jpx7 said:
I think it's far more likely they'll pay the $1m buyout than guarantee any money in excess of that to have him clog up the roster another season beyond next. His 2021 salary is somewhat onerous, but not egregious; meanwhile, fudging AAV numbers like you suggest is really only helpful for luxury-tax purposes (which seems ... unlikely to be an issue next year).
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Definitely not the "best" scenario by any stretch, no doubt. Just wondering aloud if it might be a potential option depending on just how tight money's going to be. Pushing $3 million of his 2021 salary back (until when you assume The Battery will be back on its feet) more or less pays for your veteran swingman (Tomlin?) and utility IF (Hechavarria/Culberson?) PLUS whatever you'll wind up paying Pache and Contreras whenever they come up. Would leave everything coming off the books that AA is ALLOWED to spend to dedicate towards Ozuna/Pederson/Melancon/veteran SP/whoever.
 
I have serious doubts that Camargo and Jackson will be looking for work this winter. Have less serious doubts about Duvall.

"won.t be looking for work" Other words "Dont think they will be back in Atlanta".
 
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Interesting note on the Arb projections is that Bryant wont be getting a raise. Same money as Ozuna got this year. Still think he will be a big target for AA.
 
As much as it hurts right now, let Ozuna walk.

1.) Start the season with Pache.
2.) Sign Pederson as LF/DH option - 1 year/$5 million.
3.) Trade Camargo, Luke Jackson, and A-Jax (plus sweetener) for Soler.
4.) Re-sign Melancon or Greene - 1 year/$5 million.
5.) Hechavarria or Jordy Mercer as utility IF - 1 year/$1 million. Delgado has to be added to the 40-Man anyway, so this gives you another full year for Shewmake in minors.

Pederson/Soler/Duvall/Ender mix as LF/DH platoon to start - DFA Ender when you call Waters up. Continue to roll the dice with the young pitching and hope for a return to health from Soroka.

If MLBTR arbitration projections are right, gives you a 2021 payroll of $120,659,375 with d'Arnaud, Melancon, Soler, Martin, O'Day, and Pederson (plus Inciarte if he hasn't already been replaced by Waters) coming off the books in 2022 in the event you choose to work out an extension with Freeman.
 
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clvclv said:
As much as it hurts right now, let Acuna walk.

1.) Start the season with Pache.
2.) Sign Pederson as LF/DH option - 1 year/$5 million.
3.) Trade Camargo, Luke Jackson, and A-Jax (plus sweetener) for Soler.
4.) Re-sign Melancon or Greene - 1 year/$5 million.
5.) Hechavarria or Jordy Mercer as utility IF - 1 year/$1 million. Delgado has to be added to the 40-Man anyway, so this gives you another full year for Shewmake in minors.

Pederson/Soler/Duvall/Ender mix as LF/DH platoon to start - DFA Ender when you call Waters up. Continue to roll the dice with the young pitching and hope for a return to health from Soroka.

If MLBTR arbitration projections are right, gives you a 2021 payroll of $120,659,375 with d'Arnaud, Melancon, Soler, Martin, O'Day, and Pederson (plus Inciarte if he hasn't already been replaced by Waters) coming off the books in 2022 in the event you choose to work out an extension with Freeman.
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I think i'd keep Acuna around for a few more seasons.
 
A lot of it probably depends on if the NL keeps the DH next year. If they do I think AA brings Ozuna back.
 
Hudson2 said:
A lot of it probably depends on if the NL keeps the DH next year. If they do I think AA brings Ozuna back.
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Ozuna's make good gamble paid off big time. Now he will cash in big time. Look for an AL team with assured DH to make run (s). NL teams maybe but they wont be Atlanta with payroll limitations.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Ozuna's make good gamble paid off big time. Now he will cash in big time. Look for an AL team with assured DH to make run (s). NL teams maybe but they wont be Atlanta with payroll limitations.
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He will take a paycut to play with his new BFF Acuna. Albies goes into deep depression.
 
Braves Free Agents this offseason:

Marcell Ozuna $18m
Cole Hamels $18m
Mark Melancon $19m
Shane Greene $6.25m
Nick Markakis $4M
Tyler Flowers $4M
Darren O'Day $3.5m
Jhoulys Chacin $1.6m
Yangervis Solarte $1M
Adeiny Hechavarria $1m
Josh Tomlin $1m
Tom Milone $1M
Felix Hernandez $1m
Chris Rusin $575k
Pablo Sandoval $563,500

That is roughly $80.5M coming off the books this offseason. Not saying the Braves have the $80m to spend with COVID knocking out most revenue, but with a small World Series bonus. But I think we will have more money than some of us think
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Braves Free Agents this offseason:

Marcell Ozuna $18m
Cole Hamels $18m
Mark Melancon $19m
Shane Greene $6.25m
Nick Markakis $4M
Tyler Flowers $4M
Darren O'Day $3.5m
Jhoulys Chacin $1.6m
Yangervis Solarte $1M
Adeiny Hechavarria $1m
Josh Tomlin $1m
Tom Milone $1M
Felix Hernandez $1m
Chris Rusin $575k
Pablo Sandoval $563,500

That is roughly $80.5M coming off the books this offseason. Not saying the Braves have the $80m to spend with COVID knocking out most revenue, but with a small World Series bonus. But I think we will have more money than some of us think
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Offer Ozuna 40 million and Bauer 40 million
 
I love Ozuna. He seems to be critical to the team chemistry. Seems to be a great compliment to FF. Both leading in different ways.

I'd be very concerned about a 33+ y/o Ozuna on my team. He went from a CF to a guy with no arm, who can't play LF who isn't a good baserunner. He has a great bat but it seems to be very much tied to big time bat speed. I think offering him a 4-5 year deal is very scary, even with a DH.

With COVID budgets, who knows. Mets may just buy up everyone and we sit everything out.
 
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