Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

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All sorts of questions about roster size, DH or no DH, available payroll (even with lots of money coming off the books), but might as well start a thread to centralize some of the discussion. Way too early to start narrowing things down since there are a lot of questions that can still be answered internally (Wright/Folty/Riley in particular).

2021 Guaranteed Salaries And Likely Arbitration/Renewals:
C - Travis d'Arnaud ($8,000,000)
C - William Contreras (Renew - $600,000)
C - Alex Jackson (Renew - $600,000)
1B - Freddie Freeman ($22,050,000)
2B - Ozzie Albies ($3,000,000)
SS - Dansby Swanson (MLBTR Projection - $8,300,000)
3B - Austin Riley (Renew - $600,000)
RF/CF - Ronald Acuna ($5,000,000)
CF - Ender Inciarte ($8,250,000)
LF/RF/DH - Adam Duvall (MLBTR Projection - $7,100,000)
OF - Cristian Pache (Renew - $600,000)

SP - Mike Soroka (MLBTR Projection - $1,900,000)
SP - Max Fried (MLBTR Projection $4,600,000)
SP - Ian Anderson (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Sean Newcomb (ARB 1)
SP - Kyle Wright (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Touki Toussaint (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Bryse Wilson (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Huascar Ynoa (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Tucker Davidson (Renew - $600,000)
SP - Jasseel De La Cruz (Renew - $600,000)

CL - Will Smith ($13,333,333)
RP - Chris Martin ($7,000,000)
RP - A. J. Minter (MLBTR Projection - $1,600,000)
RP - Darren O'Day ($3,500,000)
RP - Tyler Matzek (Renew - $600,000)
RP - Chad Sobotka (Renew - $600,000)
RP - Grant Dayton (MLBTR Projection - $1,000,000)
RP - Jacob Webb (Renew - $600,000)
RP - Patrick Weigel (Renew - $600,000)
RP - Phil Pfeifer (Renew - $600,000)
RP - Jeremy Walker (Renew - $600,000)



Braves' Free-Agents:
SP - Cole Hamels ($18 million)
OF/DH - Marcell Ozuna ($18 million)
RP - Mark Melancon ($14 million)
RP - Shane Greene ($6.25 million)
IF - Adeiny Hechavarria ($1 million)
IF/OF - Charlie Culberson ($1 million)

Final Year Of Arbitration:
SP - Mike Foltyniewicz ($6.425 million)



2021 Free-Agents:
3B - Justin Turner ($19 million)
OF - George Springer ($21 million)
OF - Michael Brantley ($16 million)
OF - Joc Pederson ($7.75 million)
OF - Mark Canha ($4.8 million)
UT - Tommy LaStella ($3.25 million)
DH - Nelson Cruz ($12 million)

SP- Trevor Bauer ($17.5 million)
SP - Masahiro Tanaka ($23 million)
SP - Jake Odorizzi ($17.8 million)
SP - James Paxton ($12.5 million)
SP - Marcus Stroman ($12 million)
SP - Jose Quintana ($10.5 million)
SP - Mike Minor ($9.5 million)
SP - Robbie Ray ($9.43 million)
SP- Kevin Gausman ($5.3 million)
SP - Taijuan Walker ($2 million)
RP - Blake Treinen ($10 million)
RP - Ken Giles ($9.6 million)
RP - Liam Hendriks ($5.3 million)
RP - Keone Kela ($3.725 million)
RP - Brandon Workman ($3.5 million)
RP - Tony Watson ($3 million)
RP - Trevor Rosenthal ($2 million)
RP - T. J. McFarland ($1.8 million)
RP - Greg Holland ($1.25 million)
RP - Jeremy Jeffress ($850K)



2021 Final Year Of Arbitration Or Team Options Not Likely To Be Picked Up:
C - Wilson Ramos ($10,000,000)
C - Robinson Chirinos ($6,500,000)
C - Mike Zunino ($4,500,000)
1B/DH - Carlos Santana ($17,500,000)
1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion ($12,000,000)
1B/3B/DH - Todd Frazier ($5,750,000)
2B - Kolten Wong ($12,500,000)
2B/3B - Eric Sogard ($4,500,000)
LF - Bret Gardner ($10,000,000)

SP - Jake Arrieta ($20,000,000)
SP - Corey Kluber ($18,000,000)
SP - Anibal Sanchez ($12,000,000)
SP - Chris Archer ($11,000,000)
SP - Chase Anderson ($9,250,000)
SP - Gio Gonzalez ($7,000,000)
RP - David Robertson ($12,000,000)
RP - Brad Hand ($10,000,000)
RP - Hector Neris ($7,000,000)
RP - Steve Cishek ($6,750,000)
RP - Sergio Romo ($5,000,000)



*** Salaries listed are what they were due to make in 2020 ***
 
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At this point, I let Hamels, Hech, Culberson, and Folty go.

I'd bring back Melancon if we can get a decent price, but would let him walk if the price gets too high. I'd like to bring Greene back if possible, but same situation as Melancon.

Folty should not be tendered a contract. I'd just move on.

I'd look into Bauer, Tanaka, Stroman....

Back burner options would be Paxton, Quintana, Ray on a contract to re-establish themselves.

I'd be heavily involved in trying to bring Ozuna back, especially if the DH is to be continued in the NL.
 
Initial thoughts.

Keep Duvall in arb. Try to extend Ozuna for 3 + 1 option. Try to sign Folty at 4 million for 2021 + incentives + option for 2022. Bauer for 1 year if he's set on doing that.

Of course that is assuming covid hasn't wrecked the payroll for next year.
 
With the large group of available RPs with late-inning experience, it's just really hard to imagine bringing Melancon and Greene back unless they take less money (substantially less in Melancon's case).

It's also awfully hard to see Hamels returning unless he takes A LOT less - even if he proves healthy and impresses over the next few weeks down the stretch.

Really looks like that if there IS any money to spend, it goes for Ozuna (or his replacement). If someone offers Marcell a huge deal, it would at least be worth looking into whether Turner or Cruz would take a 1 year/$15 million deal to hit behind Freeman in the last year of his deal even though they're older.

Making a run at Bauer would be nice, but with everyone trying to cut payrolls this winter AA might be better served by going after a durable guy like Gausman or somebody like Walker or Keller (or two of them) to create some serious rotation depth so we don't have to live through a repeat of the first month of 2020. Given the questions surrounding Soroka's health/timeline, I night even consider trying to have enough legitimate depth to use a 6 man rotation early on and eventually whittle it down to protect everybody - expecting multiple guys to go back to being 150-180+ IP guys following this crazy season would be pretty dangerous.
 
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Camargo will be in his first year of arbitration eligibility, as opposed to his final year, but he's someone I could definitely see being non-tendered—especially given his 2020 base-salary of $1.7m would probably be his baseline for earnings, as bad as he's been this year. With Shewmake in the system, Hechavarría a strong possibility to return on another one-year deal if he's wanted, and Culberson another cheap potential returning player (perhaps in a UTIL/RP role if they can get him pitching in a few more games this season), I don't really see Camargo providing a lot of value—especially if Riley can be cheap and decent at 3B.
 
As for the bullpen, Anthopoulos should (and probably will) just focus on the best combinations of stuff and price—as opposed to zeroing in on bringing back Melancon and Greene—since the Braves' 2021 pen should still be a strong unit to begin with, and relievers fall of a cliff constantly and without warning.

Of the two, I'd rather have Greene back, probably; but he's also the guy more likely to be looking for a payday, since he hasn't gone through FA (and gotten proper paid) like Melancon has. The latter, given his age and previous big payday, is probably the more likely to come back at some sort of discount, provided he's been comfortable with the Braves thus far and wants a few more shots at winning.

Either way, given the glut of options, the signings from the previous offseason, and weird economics likely for the coming offseason, I'd hope RP is the last place Anthopoulos will throw substantial resources.
 
We should try and bring King Felix back on another minor league deal. He did well enough in ST to get a rotation spot and his arm will have been rested for a year.
 
I think liberty will pull back hard on the money.
I think we will lose all free agents and bargain shop on la Stella. Fill in pen with our aaaa starters.
 
What I’d like to see is us look at springer. Down year this year. Maybe he will take the aa one year deal. If not he’s still 30 with solid obp even when not hitting.

Add Springer and it gives versatility. You could move waters. You could have a future of Springer, pache, acuna waters if they all hit . Dh allows you to play all 4 and have an amazing defense. Springer hits rh well.

Take all the money and go springer plus Bauer. Then look to trade to shake loose another starter.

Replace melancin, Greene, etc with guys on 60 man and a one year vet.

Dump ender, eat the money. Let duval go. Sign neck for less than 5 to dh and ph and veteran lead.

Let flowers go and ease Contreras in as the second catcher.

Keep Hech. Lose Culberson.
 
Flowers and Markakis are off the books as well.

It could be a cut bait off-season to some extent. A lot of payroll coming off the books and it will depend on where Liberty wants to go with things. I guess I see a lot of bargain shopping. I believe they will look for some OF help. Inciarte's precipitous fall-off puts Acuna in CF until Pache is ready and without the benefit of spring training, we won't know if that's the case and by then it could be too late.

russ, where would La Stella play? He's been a regular for the past two seasons and he wouldn't be one in Atlanta with Albies and Riley penciled in at 2B and 3B. Depending on what's going on at the alternate site, I could see Shewmake either on the opening day roster or with the big club very early in 2021.
 
Decide who replaces Flowers
Need a LH OFer
Need a competent backup SS
Need to see how Anderson finishes and how Soroka heals up. If all is good still need at least 2 competent backend starters.
No idea how DH situation well come out. But I do doubt Ozuna will get a long term offer from AA.
Riley going nowhere IMO. Would be nice if he can get BA up another 10-15 points.
With Smith on board I doubt Melancon comes back
Camargo Folty and maybe Duvall get non tendered
Just my thoughts, no basis for facts
 
50PoundHead said:
Flowers and Markakis are off the books as well.

It could be a cut bait off-season to some extent. A lot of payroll coming off the books and it will depend on where Liberty wants to go with things. I guess I see a lot of bargain shopping. I believe they will look for some OF help. Inciarte's precipitous fall-off puts Acuna in CF until Pache is ready and without the benefit of spring training, we won't know if that's the case and by then it could be too late.

russ, where would La Stella play? He's been a regular for the past two seasons and he wouldn't be one in Atlanta with Albies and Riley penciled in at 2B and 3B. Depending on what's going on at the alternate site, I could see Shewmake either on the opening day roster or with the big club very early in 2021.
Click to expand...

I actually put him on the list because I think he could be an interesting case depending on how much he'll cost as a free-agent. He might actually even be a "perfect fit" when you think about it. If you're going to carry two utility IF types (one that could play an OF corner in a pinch), why not add something we don't have right now - one that actually can hit a bit and is left-handed? Say adios to Camargo and Culberson and pay him with their money and bring Hechavarria back on a split deal to be your backup for Dansby. If Shewmake pushes his way onto the roster, you just send Hechevarria away.

Would make the bench bats a lot better and balanced with La Stella and Shewmake, and shouldn't cost much more money (if any) than you're currently spending on the *hitty ones we have.


(BTW - shout out any other potential FA additions and I'll add them to the above list.)
 
I just think La Stella will have a market that will price him above what a back-up should merit. He's been a starter and my guess is he'll want to be paid like a low-level starter. Right now, we're paying Camargo $1.7 and Hechevarria $1.0. La Stella is making $3.25 by himself. No question he'd be an offensive upgrade on the bench.
 
50PoundHead said:
I just think La Stella will have a market that will price him above what a back-up should merit. He's been a starter and my guess is he'll want to be paid like a low-level starter. Right now, we're paying Camargo $1.7 and Hechevarria $1.0. La Stella is making $3.25 by himself. No question he'd be an offensive upgrade on the bench.
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No doubt. Really only think you'd spend like that on an offensive-minded utility guy like him if you were able to reduce salary elsewhere. Just seems like the opportunity could be there if you're replacing Flowers with A-Jax/Contreras, Markakis with Pache (eventually Waters), and Hamels with TWO SPs that will likely combine to make between half to 2/3 of what he would have made this year - you'd still be in a position to bring Ozuna (or another similar type of bat) back and cut salaries substantially by letting Melancon, Greene, and Folty walk.
 
In my liberty is cheap scenario la Stella is replacing ozuna.

He’s dh. He could play lf. He could play 3b or 2b.
 
I've always had in the back of my mind the idea that Shewmake could end up at 3B. If Riley, et. al. don't really lay claim by breaking out, I could see Shew getting a shot next year...
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think liberty will pull back hard on the money.
I think we will lose all free agents and bargain shop on la Stella. Fill in pen with our aaaa starters.
Click to expand...

In the absolute worst case scenario of Liberty slashing our payroll, we still have enough to be competitive, but not close to elite. I doubt that happens or anything like a fire sale. You've got to spend money to make money
 
Russ2dollas said:
In my liberty is cheap scenario la Stella is replacing ozuna.

He’s dh. He could play lf. He could play 3b or 2b.
Click to expand...

La Stella can really only play 2B of the positions you've listed and he's not that great there. He's played some 3B, but not that much and he hasn't played an inning in the OF during his entire professional career.
 
Stella! was a great choice for the deadline. Next year he doesn't really make a ton of sense. That said, I would sure take him over Camargo in 2021.
 
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