Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Heyward]

Whispers have most teams cutting back between 20%-30%. Sportrac has the 40-Man payroll at $173,109,397. Losing 30% of that would put the top number for 2021 at $121,176,578.

If you let Hamels ($18 million), Melancon ($14 million), Folty ($6.425 million), Greene ($6.25 million), Markakis ($4 million), and Flowers ($4 million) walk this winter that saves you $52.675 million - roughly what it takes to get to that number. Replacing them with guys making the minimum bumps that up around $3.5 million, plus you've got significant raises coming for Acuna and Dansby. That probably gets you to around a 25% cutback.

Folty, Camargo, and Luke Jackson will need to be DFAd this winter. If you want to improve the rotation beyond hoping Soroka comes back completely healthy and Wright finally helps, you're probably looking at the young OF everybody has been dreaming on (Acuna, Pache, Waters) with Riley at 3B and Duvall as your DH. Then you can spend some of what Ozuna made this season trying to upgrade the rotation on the cheap. If you try to bring Ozuna back, the starting pitching you have today is what you're likely going to have next season, and the pen is going to take a hit.

This is why AA held onto all the arms and is crossing his fingers that SOMEBODY finally steps up - not only could he not add 2020 salary, he couldn't add any to next season's payroll either.

Before screaming about Liberty, the rumblings are that the majority of teams are going to be looking to cut payroll that much - the guys that are going to be free-agents this winter are going to be extremely disappointed in the offers they get.

IF seems set with Riley/Swanson/Albies/FF, C seems ok with TDA and Contreras, save money there. Nick and Duvall platoon with Pache, Acuna. Leaving SP, BP, and DH/bopper as main needs. How much money will we have to use for that though. Melancon/Greene most likely depends on who is cheaper. Greene hasnt been paid yet, while Melancon has and is a little older. Probably decline O'Day's option and re-sign him at a slightly cheaper amount like we did Flo/Nick.

And no chance Springer signs a 1 year deal even in this kinda economy.

 

[thewupk]

IF seems set with Riley/Swanson/Albies/FF, C seems ok with TDA and Contreras, save money there. Nick and Duvall platoon with Pache, Acuna. Leaving SP, BP, and DH/bopper as main needs. How much money will we have to use for that though. Melancon/Greene most likely depends on who is cheaper. Greene hasnt been paid yet, while Melancon has and is a little older. Probably decline O'Day's option and re-sign him at a slightly cheaper amount like we did Flo/Nick.

And no chance Springer signs a 1 year deal even in this kinda economy.

I bet some players will though. If salaries for FA this off season are reduced due to teams lack of revenue this year and maybe some projected lack of revenue next year. A 1 year deal in a down economy and banking on a bigger deal when salaries could be back to normal a year later might be an approach that some take.

 

[Heyward]

I bet some players will though. If salaries for FA this off season are reduced due to teams lack of revenue this year and maybe some projected lack of revenue next year. A 1 year deal in a down economy and banking on a bigger deal when salaries could be back to normal a year later might be an approach that some take.

Yeah i think some guys might/probably will given money could be ? this winter. I could see Stroman take a 1 year deal given he didnt even pitch this year. Maybe even Paxton too, or take the QO if it's offered to him. I'll believe it when i see it if Bauer does, by far the top P on the market. But i think Springer will have a ton of suitors.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Yeah i think some guys might/probably will given money could be ? this winter. I could see Stroman take a 1 year deal given he didnt even pitch this year. Maybe even Paxton too, or take the QO if it's offered to him. I'll believe it when i see it if Bauer does, by far the top P on the market. But i think Springer will have a ton of suitors.

I think Bauer will be the only QO given. He's the only one that is a "sure thing" to get more than a QO yearly value and multi-year offers.

Flowers probably returns as the Braves #2 catcher, if he wants it. Don't think any of the minors guys will be considered ready for 2021.

Overall, the FA stinks, especially where it relates to likely Braves needs. And that's before considering finances.

One thing is for sure. Teams that actually can take on payroll obligations should find some huge bargains this offseason.

 

[clvclv]

IF seems set with Riley/Swanson/Albies/FF, C seems ok with TDA and Contreras, save money there. Nick and Duvall platoon with Pache, Acuna. Leaving SP, BP, and DH/bopper as main needs. How much money will we have to use for that though. Melancon/Greene most likely depends on who is cheaper. Greene hasnt been paid yet, while Melancon has and is a little older. Probably decline O'Day's option and re-sign him at a slightly cheaper amount like we did Flo/Nick.

And no chance Springer signs a 1 year deal even in this kinda economy.

Not exactly sure how you plan to "save money there". Assuming Contreras replaces Flowers, the BEST you do is break even, and the chances you do that are remote given the season Dansby's having. Flow>>>Contreras saves around $3.4 million, but Albies' raise eats up $2 million of that, and it's pretty hard to imagine Dansby doesn't get the rest of that (if not more) through his raise in arbitration. The Ender contract is going to hurt twice as bad as it would have before.

You're missing the point here. Trying to figure out how to keep payroll from going up in 2021 is a waste of time - it's going down significantly, and not just in Atlanta. Most arbitration-eligible players making any money of consequence (Folty, Camargo, Jackson) as well as players with team options in their contracts that AREN'T significant pieces of your 2021 team will become free-agents this winter. Teams are going to look to cut costs EVERYWHERE. Chances are really good that all of the following guys can be added to the list of free-agents...

Jake Arrieta ($20,000,000)
Carlos Santana ($17,500,000)
Bret Gardner ($10,000,000)
Edwin Encarnacion ($12,000,000)
David Robertson ($12,000,000)
Anibal Sanchez ($12,000,000)
Wilson Ramos ($10,000,000)
Corey Kluber ($18,000,000)
Robinson Chirinos ($6,500,000)
Brad Hand ($10,000,000)
Steve Cishek ($6,750,000)
Chase Anderson ($9,250,000)
Kolten Wong ($12,500,000)
Gio Gonzalez ($7,000,000)
Todd Frazier ($5,750,000)
Sergio Romo ($5,000,000)
Hector Neris ($7,000,000)
Eric Sogard ($4,500,000)
Mike Zunino ($4,500,000)
Chris Archer ($11,000,000)

Those numbers are what the players' options are, and there's almost no way they get close to those as free-agents in a few months. That's without looking at all the first and second time arbitration-eligible guys on rosters that are due pretty big raises.

The only guy that's getting PAID this winter is Realmuto. Springer should get a decent deal if he's not going to bet on himself with a one-year deal, but it's going to be more like what Castellanos got last winter - not 6 or more years at $20+ million. Given the circumstances, Castellanos might be better off going back to Cincinnati for 2021 to put up some more numbers and then looking at things again next winter. It's probably 50/50 whether or not Miami picks up Marte's option, and that's shocking to most of us.

 

[Heyward]

Not exactly sure how you plan to "save money there". Assuming Contreras replaces Flowers, the BEST you do is break even, and the chances you do that are remote given the season Dansby's having. Flow>>>Contreras saves around $3.4 million, but Albies' raise eats up $2 million of that, and it's pretty hard to imagine Dansby doesn't get the rest of that (if not more) through his raise in arbitration. The Ender contract is going to hurt twice as bad as it would have before.

You're missing the point here. Trying to figure out how to keep payroll from going up in 2021 is a waste of time - it's going down significantly, and not just in Atlanta. Most arbitration-eligible players making any money of consequence (Folty, Camargo, Jackson) as well as players with team options in their contracts that AREN'T significant pieces of your 2021 team will become free-agents this winter. Teams are going to look to cut costs EVERYWHERE. Chances are really good that all of the following guys can be added to the list of free-agents...

Jake Arrieta ($20,000,000)
Carlos Santana ($17,500,000)
Bret Gardner ($10,000,000)
Edwin Encarnacion ($12,000,000)
David Robertson ($12,000,000)
Anibal Sanchez ($12,000,000)
Wilson Ramos ($10,000,000)
Corey Kluber ($18,000,000)
Robinson Chirinos ($6,500,000)
Brad Hand ($10,000,000)
Steve Cishek ($6,750,000)
Chase Anderson ($9,250,000)
Kolten Wong ($12,500,000)
Gio Gonzalez ($7,000,000)
Todd Frazier ($5,750,000)
Sergio Romo ($5,000,000)
Hector Neris ($7,000,000)
Eric Sogard ($4,500,000)
Mike Zunino ($4,500,000)
Chris Archer ($11,000,000)

Those numbers are what the players' options are, and there's almost no way they get close to those as free-agents in a few months. That's without looking at all the first and second time arbitration-eligible guys on rosters that are due pretty big raises.

The only guy that's getting PAID this winter is Realmuto. Springer should get a decent deal if he's not going to bet on himself with a one-year deal, but it's going to be more like what Castellanos got last winter - not 6 or more years at $20+ million. Given the circumstances, Castellanos might be better off going back to Cincinnati for 2021 to put up some more numbers and then looking at things again next winter. It's probably 50/50 whether or not Miami picks up Marte's option, and that's shocking to most of us.

Fair points, very fair. I expect our payroll to drop, to what extent is tbd. But given the payroll drop around the league, there should be bargains to find provided we actually have some money to spend this winter.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I have seen no one mention the pending CBA and how it will affect the 2020 off season. I would think teams will be less inclined to give multi year contracts with high dollar amounts to FA this winter. Along with the lost revenue and uncertainty of next season and COVID issues could be a really quiet winter.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I have seen no one mention the pending CBA and how it will affect the 2020 off season. I would think teams will be less inclined to give multi year contracts with high dollar amounts to FA this winter. Along with the lost revenue and uncertainty of next season and COVID issues could be a really quiet winter.

What is the reasoning behind the CBA affecting contracts. I mean no way a cap is installed. Work stoppage should scare anyone. Because it just means guys don’t get paid.

 

[TheBravos]

Teams will not spend as much. There will still be some big contracts, but quietly I’m betting most GMs will be told to be as careful as possible (ours included).

Example..fast forward a year...would AA sign Will Smith if it was 2021? Doubtful.

 

[Enscheff]

Riley’s rolling 15 day Z-Contact% is UL to something like 90% right now, which is amazing and something he’s never approached during any hot streak yet. His plate discipline numbers have stayed fairly steady all year after the modest improvement he made early.

Riley is undoubtedly showing enough improvement that there is almost no reason to even look at options for 3b this off-season. A full length regular season in 2021 may expose some things, but right now he is clearly the guy at 3b.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

What is the reasoning behind the CBA affecting contracts. I mean no way a cap is installed. Work stoppage should scare anyone. Because it just means guys don’t get paid.

Possible work stoppage for 2022 resulting in a lost season for a high dollar player means the team owners not only lose revenue they lose one of a players most projectionable seasons if you go with the premise that production diminishes with age.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Possible work stoppage for 2022 resulting in a lost season for a high dollar player means the team owners not only lose revenue they lose one of a players most projectionable seasons if you go with the premise that production diminishes with age.

Won't be a work stoppage.

The 2020 COVID season is the best thing that could have happened for the owners and players in terms of forcing a negotiation the CBA. Let's face it, with COVID19, the shortened season, the whole social justice part of 2020 (whether you agree with it or not, doesn't matter) and the likely economic downturn experienced by many coming out of the 2020 COVID and political scene, baseball as we know it won't be the same for a while, if ever (although I think memories tend to be short and most will be back sooner than later).

Neither side can afford to have a work stoppage under any circumstances anytime soon. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them both agree to kick the can down the road and just extend the current agreement a few years so they could let things stabilize before they get their fight on later.

 

[cajunrevenge]

So who's a good manager the franchise should look at once AA SHOULD not exercise Snitker's option.

spoiler warning, there are no managers you will be happy with. Just learn to live with it.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Twit isn’t going anywhere for a while. Managers have little impact on a game to game basis. The worst managers are the ones who over use pitchers or let club house issues grow. Twit is good about both those and is fine for our role.

He does scare me in playoff games but our talent can overcome that too.

 

[Slippyjms]

Twit isn’t going anywhere for a while. Managers have little impact on a game to game basis. The worst managers are the ones who over use pitchers or let club house issues grow. Twit is good about both those and is fine for our role.

He does scare me in playoff games but our talent can overcome that too.

Really? Our talent didn’t overcome Snitker giving Folty 2 starts including the deciding game while giving Soroka and Fried a combination of 1 start in the playoffs last year.

 

[Slippyjms]

spoiler warning, there are no managers you will be happy with. Just learn to live with it.

I don’t think that’s true. I mean many of us have had just different versions of the same manager throughout our entire lives. Gonzalez and Snit have basically been cheap imitations of Bobby.

 

[Southcack77]

Whispers have most teams cutting back between 20%-30%. Sportrac has the 40-Man payroll at $173,109,397. Losing 30% of that would put the top number for 2021 at $121,176,578.

If you let Hamels ($18 million), Melancon ($14 million), Folty ($6.425 million), Greene ($6.25 million), Markakis ($4 million), and Flowers ($4 million) walk this winter that saves you $52.675 million - roughly what it takes to get to that number. Replacing them with guys making the minimum bumps that up around $3.5 million, plus you've got significant raises coming for Acuna and Dansby. That probably gets you to around a 25% cutback.

Folty, Camargo, and Luke Jackson will need to be DFAd this winter. If you want to improve the rotation beyond hoping Soroka comes back completely healthy and Wright finally helps, you're probably looking at the young OF everybody has been dreaming on (Acuna, Pache, Waters) with Riley at 3B and Duvall as your DH. Then you can spend some of what Ozuna made this season trying to upgrade the rotation on the cheap. If you try to bring Ozuna back, the starting pitching you have today is what you're likely going to have next season, and the pen is going to take a hit.

This is why AA held onto all the arms and is crossing his fingers that SOMEBODY finally steps up - not only could he not add 2020 salary, he couldn't add any to next season's payroll either.

Before screaming about Liberty, the rumblings are that the majority of teams are going to be looking to cut payroll that much - the guys that are going to be free-agents this winter are going to be extremely disappointed in the offers they get.

The Braves have about 67.5 guaranteed. If they pick up O'Day that would put them at 70m.

If they offered everyone arbitration, the ceiling there would probably be about 30m, but that includes picking up options on guys like Camargo, Folty, Duvall, Jackson. Those 4 are probably more than half of the Braves arbitration expenses between them.

I think the Braves are likely to start free agency with somewhere between 85-95m in payroll.

I'm not sure anyone really understands what the economics of next season look like. The economics of this season were pretty austere as pretty much no one took on much money or bad deals at the deadline.

If mid and small market teams are bleeding players the beneficiaries are still likely to be big market clubs, but the Braves are somewhat well positioned to benefit if they have a reasonable payroll limit.

 

[clvclv]

Really? Our talent didn’t overcome Snitker giving Folty 2 starts including the deciding game while giving Soroka and Fried a combination of 1 start in the playoffs last year.

You do realize Folty had just shut them out for 7 innings and was on regular rest before he started the second of those games you're talking about, right? Soroka would have been going on short rest, and they had been worried about his innings all year.

That game might have been his best start all year - 81 pitches/58 strikes, 7 Ks, 0 BBs, 3 hits.

You can *itch about the order that Snitker lined the SPs up in - plenty of folks have - but complaining that Folty got that start is a little ridiculous. He had just completely dominated them (with Flaherty on the mound), and you would have had Soroka and Keuchel lined up for Games 6 and Game 7.

 

[TheBravos]

Fried to the 10 day DL...

 

[Southcack77]

You do realize Folty had just shut them out for 7 innings and was on regular rest before he started the second of those games you're talking about, right? Soroka would have been going on short rest, and they had been worried about his innings all year.

That game might have been his best start all year - 81 pitches/58 strikes, 7 Ks, 0 BBs, 3 hits.

You can *itch about the order that Snitker lined the SPs up in - plenty of folks have - but complaining that Folty got that start is a little ridiculous. He had just completely dominated them (with Flaherty on the mound), and you would have had Soroka and Keuchel lined up for Games 6 and Game 7.

Games 6 and 7?