Southcack77
Well-known member
I'm not sure why he would play either. I guess he could be the new Camargo if they choose to non-tender him, but I'd think they'd rather he get at bats.
Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
I'm not sure why he would play either. I guess he could be the new Camargo if they choose to non-tender him, but I'd think they'd rather he get at bats.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
agree 100%. Covid plus strike the following year.
Lots of 1 year deals. Teams looking to move long term financial commitments for low value if you take the money.
This off season will be as hard to predict as the trade deadline was.
We typically have a pretty good idea of who has cash to spend, what FA prices will be, and how teams value prospects and MLB players. All that went out the window the moment the pandemic shut down the sports world.
I suspect the rich teams with loads of TV revenue will once again have a clear advantage, and a team like the Braves reliant on attendance and folks visiting their real estate empire will be in a pretty rough spot (and laying off many people), but who knows how it will all shake out.
We typically have a pretty good idea of who has cash to spend, what FA prices will be, and how teams value prospects and MLB players. All that went out the window the moment the pandemic shut down the sports world.
I suspect the rich teams with loads of TV revenue will once again have a clear advantage, and a team like the Braves reliant on attendance and folks visiting their real estate empire will be in a pretty rough spot (and laying off many people), but who knows how it will all shake out.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I will be curious to see if liberty will write this revenue season off as a anomaly. And still give the team a good budget going off 2019 earnings as a predictive play.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
This.
Everyone's simply guessing at this point, but they've had a nice little stretch to get a look at the two of them side-by-side after Camargo got sent down. I think there are going to be lots of this type of trimming around the edges non-tenders this winter. Going from Camargo to Shewmake saves you over a million bucks or more (if Camargo gets any bump in arbitration). Non-tendering Jackson and carrying Webb/Walker/Pfeifer/Burrows in his spot saves you another million plus. Josh Graham, Hoekstra, Burrows, Clouse, Connor Johnstone, and Troy Bacon are all Rule V eligible if they're not added to the 40-Man Roster this winter, so they're potential replacements for Jackson as well - any of them could join Sobotka and Webb as options that can spend next season on the ATL/Gwinnett shuttle.
I just have a hard time seeing AA go to an arbitration hearing with either Camargo or Jackson (or Folty for that matter) - Tomlin and Hechavarria took $1 million (or less in Tomlin's case) to play in 2020, there's not much reason to think they wouldn't do the same next winter and you might even be able to get them to take non-guaranteed deals to come back.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Shewmake is a real prospect you develop him. If they want to get a guy for the minimum they will resign culberson.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Ender could very well be next year version of Culberson. At best possibly the 4th OFer
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Might be able to teach him to play 2B, but he just doesn't have the arm to pitch in relief.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I approve of this plan. I’d rather keep Ozuna but can’t imagine we can afford him after this year since he decided to go into beast mode.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Bauer's stated points: One year deal.
Wants chance at World Series.
Wants to pitch every 4th day.
Heavy reliance on stats.
Any comments/speculation as to how Braves play into his wants?
Wants chance at World Series.
Wants to pitch every 4th day.
Heavy reliance on stats.
Any comments/speculation as to how Braves play into his wants?
Depends on price. Braves/Bauer are likely to agree on all of those things. Braves are a WS contending team, big on one year deals, and seem to be moving aggressively into the stathead realm. I think the every 4th day was a comment just in this shortened season since it's a sprint and not a marathon.
In the end it will be how much does Bauer value himself. And do the Braves have the payroll and willing to spend it on him? But he would be the perfect add to the rotation.
Lots of people underestimating how big a change is coming with the minor league contraction that's on the way - players are going to spend less and less time in the minors moving forward. We've already seen this to an extent, and that's before contraction. With everyone looking to slash payroll there are going to be that many fewer spots available for the same OLD marginal (at best) veterans to sit at the end of the bench. Everybody has already seen everything that the Culbersons, Hechavarrias, Tomlins, Scheblers, and Sandovals of the world have to offer - if they're willing to sign split-deals and hang out in Gwinnett in case you have an injury and need someone to fill-in in case of a significant injury that's great, but teams aren't going to be handing out guarantees to that type of player anymore.
Service-time is going to become less of a concern for all but your top prospects - if you've determined that Shewmake's ceiling is a utility infielder, and he's one that can be helpful while he's cheap, you use him when he can be helpful and take advantage of that. If it's not clear by now that he's a legitimate replacement for Dansby within the next couple of years as he starts to get more and more expensive, you use him to help while it makes sense financially. Platoon him with Riley and use him to give Dansby and Ozzie days off. Shewmake isn't a 17 year old high school kid you didn't know much about when you drafted him, he's got a track record. Look at the Rays' infield - a complete mish-mash of limited ceiling platoon players who play when the matchups are right.
I'm not so sure AA's draft strategy was strictly driven by the lack of money to sign picks. Draft quick-to-the-majors types that can help you soon (Langeliers/Shewmake/Phillip/Kalich), and use them to help with your MLB depth while they're young and inexpensive. If you're not in a position to draft a supposedly "can't-miss" high school kid in the early rounds, why spend tons of money on them? The whiff rate on kids drafted out of high school is much higher than that on college kids. You don't ignore the 17 and 18 year olds with upside (Harris/Grissom/etc.), but if they're not consensus first rounders you don't give them huge bonuses if it's going to take you 4 or 5 years to develop them - there are just too many things that can go wrong.
The list of 2nd and 3rd round college players drafted since 2016 that are already in the majors helping their teams will surprise you...
Keegan Akin (who just shut us down)
Spencer Howard
Griffin Canning
Daulton Varsho
Will Crowe
Nick Solak
Pete Alonso
Garrett Hampson
Sean Murphy
Shaun Anderson
Austin Hays
Aaron Civale
Zac Gallen
Corbin Burnes
Bobby Dalbec
Shane Bieber
Not all of them are "stars", and all have had differing levels of success so far, but their value is that there's a much better chance they turn into useful regulars or bench pieces while they're young if they can make adjustments than there is that you get anything out of the same old boring set of veteran placeholders that keeps getting guaranteed contracts to block them every winter. You wind up holding onto those guys to sit at the end of the bench all year even when you have prospects that are hot because you gave them a couple million dollars. They're a dime-a-dozen and easily replaceable, and there are going to be a ton of veterans available this winter when teams go through their arby-eligible purges.
Teams are much more likely to take a more stars and scrubs approach given where the finances appear to be headed, and if carrying guys like Shewmake and Contreras rather than signing guys like Flowers and Camargo to guaranteed contracts saves you money to chase Bauer, we're probably going to start seeing more of that - particularly from contenders.
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Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
This is crazy.
He was a first round pick two drafts ago. Some have him as a top 100 prospect.
he has hardly had any professional at bats.
Saying he’s a utility player now is crazy. If there is a dh we have shown utility player value is way down.
You put him in aa then aaa. He’s your insurance if you can’t sign dansby or someone better. If you can make a signing he’s trade bait.
he’s not comargo
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I will agree with you just because you took the time to read all of that. Are there cliff notes somewhere I can buy?
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
The obvious question on Shewmake is do you waste service time on a guy who would likely be a 300 AB back-up. Braves have shown little reluctance in promoting players aggressively (arguably sometimes to the player's and team's detriment), but if they see Shewmake as a guy who will develop into a regular (and if you draft a guy in the first round, I hope--and would venture a solid guess--that they view him as an everyday player), I doubt they are going to burn service time right out of the gate with him.
As clvclv has often pointed out, we know little of substance in terms of what is going on at the alternate site. Shewmake would have probably been in Gwinnett at some point in 2020 had it been a regular and uninterrupted season and if that had been the case, we would have a better idea if Shewmake would fit into a prominent role in 2021. As it is, my guess is they'll want to see him against live and competitive pitching next spring training and most likely into the regular minor league season before moving him up to the big leagues.
As clvclv has often pointed out, we know little of substance in terms of what is going on at the alternate site. Shewmake would have probably been in Gwinnett at some point in 2020 had it been a regular and uninterrupted season and if that had been the case, we would have a better idea if Shewmake would fit into a prominent role in 2021. As it is, my guess is they'll want to see him against live and competitive pitching next spring training and most likely into the regular minor league season before moving him up to the big leagues.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
The idea that "service time is going to become less of an issue" is...well, let's just say that does not accord with my reading of how modern front offices operate.
Seems to fit perfectly until we realize some team may offer him $40M for a single prime season, at which point he becomes unrealistic.
We’ve never seen an elite player in his prime attempt to go year to year. Typically teams give a guy like Bauer $200M over many years so they can overpay him on the backend while underpaying him on the front end. If he truly goes year to year he will expect something like $10M per win, and who knows how much value teams will assign to only taking on a single year of risk. Who knows how much single year payroll A team can really commit to a single player.
MLB team finances have never operated the way Bauer wants to operate, so it will be fascinating to see if some team is able to pony up some insane single year salary. He is banking on that happening, otherwise it wouldn’t make sense to pass up huge long term deals.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
No, he stated he will be seeking a team that will let him pitch every 4th day for the entire year next year. He says that's how he feels the best and is best for his body.