I'm not sure how complete statcast's Outs Above Average is for infielders. But they have Swanson at -2 which is more in line with his -0.3 UZR than his 10 DRS.
Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread
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I'm not sure how complete statcast's Outs Above Average is for infielders. But they have Swanson at -2 which is more in line with his -0.3 UZR than his 10 DRS.
Dalyn
Fredi Gonzalez Supporter
With starters not going as long as they used to, and the subsequent rise in importance of the bullpen, I could see teams going back to a 4-man rotation. Most "good" starts are going to be 5-6 innings with the occasional 7-inning gem. A 4-man rotation allows even more arms in the bullpen, and you could argue that it also makes a team better prepared for a playoff run. It makes a lot of sense to me.
The flip side of that is that you may be in a position to have Ball replace Freddie and spend $20+ million per on one of those SSs.
A Dansby extension likely has to be quite team-favorable. All the big contracts (other than Acuna's) will be off the books when those guys become available.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Swanson is an acceptable SS on a contending team. I would rather pour money into other areas and just sign Dansby to the affordable salary he will command. We need to be carful signing a bunch of different FA position players. That is how a cheap team goes broke.
Don't misunderstand - I've been banging the extend Dansby drum for a while, as long as it's a team-friendly extension. The monster class of free-agents is coming though, you've got Shewmake coming before then, and for all we know Grissom might have blown their minds in Gwinnett this summer.
right.
i could see a team overpaying Dansby tho, still dreaming on what he "could" be.
the Braves have some time, and i'm sure they want to see what they have in Shewmake before committing to Swanson (unless it's clearly team-friendly).
If - as mentioned plenty of times in separate places - the consensus targets are (not necessarily in order) a pen arm, a veteran starter, and a "big bat", there are going to be a ton of ways for AA to approach things...
Pen Arm - would be nice to have someone with closing experience from the right side (even though it's probably not entirely necessary with Martin around).
1.) You've got plenty of big-name targets, but with $20 million already committed to Smith and Martin, it's awfully tough to see AA making a play for someone like Colome, Treinen, Giles, Yates, or Hendriks IMO.
2) Given his age (and the market) it's tough to imagine many teams offering multiple years to Melancon - considering he's had a big payday, he might be open to taking a little less to stay put if most teams are going to tighten their belts as much as we think. If you could bring him back on a $5-$8 million deal, that would make the pen scary deep again. I don't see bringing Greene back as plausible unless his market collapses for some reason no one sees coming - he likely gets a multi-year offer from SOMEBODY.
3.) Almost impossible to imagine Oakland can hang onto all their guys - Hendriks is the sexy name, but both Soria and Petit are older guys who probably get 1 year deals. Either of them could probably be had in that $5 million range. Ian Kennedy probably represents another older option who probably doesn't get multiple years either.
4.) If another multi-year deal would be considered, I think Kela might be a nice, sneaky signing.
With Smith and Minter pretty much locked-in as the top two LHs and Matzek, Dayton, Newk, and Davidson as potential options as well (and the possibility they break Muller in in a pen role) it's just really hard to see them targeting a LH reliever.
Preference - re-sign Melancon and watch to see if one of the older guys like Soria, Kennedy, Greg Holland, Petit, Tommy Hunter, or Blake Parker slips through the cracks with everyone looking to get younger and pinch pennies.
Veteran SP - HAS to be someone on a 1 year deal, doesn't it?
1.) All but impossible to imagine AA's in a position to bid on Bauer whether he takes a 1 year deal or not. Gausman, Odorizzi, Stroman, Paxton, and Garrett Richards probably get multi-year deals even if they're not particularly expensive.
2.) Hang onto Folty - he isn't likely going to get much of a raise (if at all), and our people have gotten the look at him that no one else has.
3.) If Archer proves he's healthy he's probably the upside play on a 1 year deal. Another name that's not so sexy that I'd look at is Mike Leake - has always been a solid innings-eater. Mike Fiers might fit as that type too.
Preference - Leake on an $8-$10 million (or less) deal to chew up innings and buy that much more time for Newk/Touki/Wilson/Davidson/Muller. Keep an eye on Wood in the event his market tanks as another potential LH option if he'll sign a split deal.
Bat - probably as short-term as possible.
1.) Just can't see Ozuna coming back. Hope I'm wrong, but if bringing him back causes AA to have to go really cheap on the pen and rotation arms he's probably much better off spreading whatever money he can spend evenly. Freddie, Acuna, d'Arnaud, and Ozzie are going to make you dangerous enough without spending big. Springer would be "nice", but someone's probably going to give him a contract they'll regret too.
2.) Turner will be out there, but Riley's done enough to make you think there's no real reason to sign him and add another RH bat. Marte kinda gets in the way of Pache and Waters since he'll get a multi-year deal.
3.) Pay whatever raises Duvall and Dansby get in arbitration to give you the lineup flexibility you've had this year. While not ideal, Ozzie can hit in the middle of the order to break up a run of RH bats if he needs to.
Preference - sign Brantley to balance the lineup. He's already shown he can produce as an everyday DH, and while he may not hit 35 or 40 bombs like Ozuna or Springer he's still a *elluva hitter. He won't exactly be "cheap", but probably doesn't get the type of deal Ozuna does. You're going to shave off big chunks of payroll if you re-sign Melancon for half of what he's making, let Greene, Flowers, Markakis, Jackson, and Camargo walk, and replace Hamels with a much cheaper SP. Give him a 2 year deal with an option - that buys you the time you need to find out what you have in Waters. If he's as good as hoped, you can let Duvall walk after next season.
Pen Arm - would be nice to have someone with closing experience from the right side (even though it's probably not entirely necessary with Martin around).
1.) You've got plenty of big-name targets, but with $20 million already committed to Smith and Martin, it's awfully tough to see AA making a play for someone like Colome, Treinen, Giles, Yates, or Hendriks IMO.
2) Given his age (and the market) it's tough to imagine many teams offering multiple years to Melancon - considering he's had a big payday, he might be open to taking a little less to stay put if most teams are going to tighten their belts as much as we think. If you could bring him back on a $5-$8 million deal, that would make the pen scary deep again. I don't see bringing Greene back as plausible unless his market collapses for some reason no one sees coming - he likely gets a multi-year offer from SOMEBODY.
3.) Almost impossible to imagine Oakland can hang onto all their guys - Hendriks is the sexy name, but both Soria and Petit are older guys who probably get 1 year deals. Either of them could probably be had in that $5 million range. Ian Kennedy probably represents another older option who probably doesn't get multiple years either.
4.) If another multi-year deal would be considered, I think Kela might be a nice, sneaky signing.
With Smith and Minter pretty much locked-in as the top two LHs and Matzek, Dayton, Newk, and Davidson as potential options as well (and the possibility they break Muller in in a pen role) it's just really hard to see them targeting a LH reliever.
Preference - re-sign Melancon and watch to see if one of the older guys like Soria, Kennedy, Greg Holland, Petit, Tommy Hunter, or Blake Parker slips through the cracks with everyone looking to get younger and pinch pennies.
Veteran SP - HAS to be someone on a 1 year deal, doesn't it?
1.) All but impossible to imagine AA's in a position to bid on Bauer whether he takes a 1 year deal or not. Gausman, Odorizzi, Stroman, Paxton, and Garrett Richards probably get multi-year deals even if they're not particularly expensive.
2.) Hang onto Folty - he isn't likely going to get much of a raise (if at all), and our people have gotten the look at him that no one else has.
3.) If Archer proves he's healthy he's probably the upside play on a 1 year deal. Another name that's not so sexy that I'd look at is Mike Leake - has always been a solid innings-eater. Mike Fiers might fit as that type too.
Preference - Leake on an $8-$10 million (or less) deal to chew up innings and buy that much more time for Newk/Touki/Wilson/Davidson/Muller. Keep an eye on Wood in the event his market tanks as another potential LH option if he'll sign a split deal.
Bat - probably as short-term as possible.
1.) Just can't see Ozuna coming back. Hope I'm wrong, but if bringing him back causes AA to have to go really cheap on the pen and rotation arms he's probably much better off spreading whatever money he can spend evenly. Freddie, Acuna, d'Arnaud, and Ozzie are going to make you dangerous enough without spending big. Springer would be "nice", but someone's probably going to give him a contract they'll regret too.
2.) Turner will be out there, but Riley's done enough to make you think there's no real reason to sign him and add another RH bat. Marte kinda gets in the way of Pache and Waters since he'll get a multi-year deal.
3.) Pay whatever raises Duvall and Dansby get in arbitration to give you the lineup flexibility you've had this year. While not ideal, Ozzie can hit in the middle of the order to break up a run of RH bats if he needs to.
Preference - sign Brantley to balance the lineup. He's already shown he can produce as an everyday DH, and while he may not hit 35 or 40 bombs like Ozuna or Springer he's still a *elluva hitter. He won't exactly be "cheap", but probably doesn't get the type of deal Ozuna does. You're going to shave off big chunks of payroll if you re-sign Melancon for half of what he's making, let Greene, Flowers, Markakis, Jackson, and Camargo walk, and replace Hamels with a much cheaper SP. Give him a 2 year deal with an option - that buys you the time you need to find out what you have in Waters. If he's as good as hoped, you can let Duvall walk after next season.
For the offense I think Brantley would be a good choice to replace Ozuna. Depending on the money I would look hard at Pederson to replace Neck. That would give us an quality platoon with Duvall/Pederson and a good DH. We have Duvall for 2 more years if we want so a 2 year deal for Pederson would line up well. Waters also bats from the right so you could ease him into the majors in 2022 in that scenario if you decide to let Duvall walk a year early.
I think you will see Ender start the year in CF regardless with Pache likely taking over once a year of service time has been gained. IMO, that would be a perfect plan for the offense for the offseason.
I think you will see Ender start the year in CF regardless with Pache likely taking over once a year of service time has been gained. IMO, that would be a perfect plan for the offense for the offseason.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Would obviously prefer Ozuna + Pederson, as opposed to Brantley + Pederson. But the latter is a good fallback.
I'd forgotten Duvall now has two more arbitration years. I think he's a lock for 2021, but I could see a non-tender ahead of 2022, given his age / the Braves' OF depth / &c.
I'd prefer Ozuna too. But I feel the dude is going to get paid. He's took a 1 year prove it deal and has absolutely delivered. He's getting the big contract and I just don't see it happening with the Braves. Who knows what the covid climate will bring to the offseason though.
Yeah Duvall is a lock for 2021 and would fit in greatly with a platoon. I feel like that's been AA's plan with him every since he acquired him. It's just never really worked out for a long period of time due to various reasons. He sucked when we got him and Ender had to be forced back into fulltime. Our 2020 outfield situation has been sporadic as **** and he's had to go to fulltime duty after performing well against RHP for a short period. Duvall returning in 2022 would largely depend on A) how he performed in his role in 2021 and B) what he's looking at in arbitration and the Braves payroll
Love the idea, but not sure there's a way Pederson comes cheap enough. If they're forcing AA to cut salaries as significantly as we think they will, I'm not sure you can platoon someone with Duvall. If there's enough money to platoon with someone, wouldn't you rather spend a couple million on someone like Shaw or Lamb to platoon with Riley if you had to choose one or the other?
In this scenario, I guess you could platoon Brantley with Duvall and have d'Arnaud DH on some of the days Brantley plays defense without having to add another salary.
My main thing is that I don't want him to have to go cheap anywhere. Make sure to spend enough money to add a "surer thing" like Leake to the rotation and bring Melancon back even if the offense takes a little bit of a hit - don't think anyone's counting on Pache and Waters to blow the world away next season, but there's a legitimate chance that they provide more than Ender and Markakis have this year.
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Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
For bullpen, i think MM if he'd sign a team-friendly deal makes sense. Agree with our lower budget, cant see Greene come back, he's likely to get a solid contract somewhere. Teams always pay for bullpen arms.
Doubt we're in on Bauer, so i'm not sure where AA leans here. Likely a 1 yr deal for someone but anyones guess as to who.
If AA were to spend heavy, i think it's on the offense but we return Duvall, Swanson, TDA, Albies, Acuna, Riley, Freeman from the offense. I'd love Ozuna back but man, he's had such a good year, he's going to get paid. Ozuna is alot younger than JD so AA could go 4+ years but his AAV is the kicker, 20, 25, 30? If AA spent on Ozuna, and went cheap on bullpen/SP, that's tough. Will be interesting what direction he does go though. If we got 2 bats, i'd want one LHH and one RHH. But hard to project.
Doubt we're in on Bauer, so i'm not sure where AA leans here. Likely a 1 yr deal for someone but anyones guess as to who.
If AA were to spend heavy, i think it's on the offense but we return Duvall, Swanson, TDA, Albies, Acuna, Riley, Freeman from the offense. I'd love Ozuna back but man, he's had such a good year, he's going to get paid. Ozuna is alot younger than JD so AA could go 4+ years but his AAV is the kicker, 20, 25, 30? If AA spent on Ozuna, and went cheap on bullpen/SP, that's tough. Will be interesting what direction he does go though. If we got 2 bats, i'd want one LHH and one RHH. But hard to project.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Why on earth would Ender start the year in CF?
He'll start it on the bench.
He'll start it on the bench.
Same reason a lot of decisions are made. $$$
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Unless we signed Pache to an extension to start the year, hard to see them not start Ender until we get the extra year of clock with Pache.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
There has to be a team out there with dire needs of young pitching of which the Braves have excess. AA should not have a difficult time getting a decent OFer, preferably LH hitting, and any bullpen help needed. If Soroka is healed, Wright is really ready, and Anderson can continue then that 5th guy might well be Folty/Newk/Wilson/Touki/Ynoa/Davidson/Muller. (You get what Im saying Im sure) then if one or more work out AA should have tons of money to get that DH/OFer.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Acuna.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Acuna, Duvall and who? Hopefully Nick retires.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
If the DH becomes universal, Brantley will likely have a higher AAV than Pederson. Difference may be that Brantley will probably have a shorter contract in terms of years. Pederson is 28 and may go years over AAV, which would be a sticking point for the Braves in my estimation. I like the idea of a Pederson/Duvall platoon.