Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[clvclv]

I am warming on Kyle Seagar IF they take Ender to help even out the money for 2021. I know his 2022 option becomes guaranteed in a trade, but I'm comfortable with a 2 year commitment.

What would a trade for Seagar look like if it included Ender you might ask. Well, it shouldn't be that much. Seagar barely has any positive trade value once you factor in the 2022 option is guaranteed. Ender has negative value, adding him to the deal improves the return for Seattle. Riley still has positive value, but it's hard to know exactly what that is. I assume it isn't enough in a return for Seagar. So likely have to add a decent arm to sweeten the deal. Maybe Weigel.

The thing that worries me about including Riley in a Seager deal - EVEN if they take Ender's money back - is that you're going to have to play Duvall against RHPs more than you want AND it pretty severely limits any amount of money AA will have left to spend (assuming he has any).

For *hits and giggles, lets assume adding Seager minus Ender and Riley's 2021 salaries adds $9.2 million to the payroll. If our guess that AA is probably working with ~ $25 million to spend (at best), that leaves you ~ $16 million. One way to pinch a few pennies would obviously be to have A-Jax or Contreras as d'Arnaud's backup while having Travis play more than every-other day. Now you're down to $15 million. Another $1 million for the backup SS knocks that down to $14 million. Maybe you pinch a few more pennies there and have Delgado as the backup infielder since he has to be added to the 40-Man Roster. If you can get Reddick to platoon with Duvall, you're left with $10-$11 million to spend on a veteran SP and another pen arm - with nothing left to spend at the deadline.

I'm all for that personally - as Enscheff mentions, I think there are going to be some incredible bargains out there - particularly on the pitching side. The lineup would be balanced, and you'd have Waters and Shewmake not that far away in the event of an injury. The question - from a typical fan's standpoint - is going to be just how unhappy is the general fanbase going to be if you replace Ozuna and Riley with Seager and a platoon AND you wait really late to add whatever pitching slips through the cracks? Pitching ALWAYS seems to cost more than we think it should, so AA would have to stay incredibly disciplined and not jump too soon. The thing he'd have working in his favor is that he'd only be looking for an innings-eater and a 6th/7th inning guy - he won't need a big piece for either of those roles (unless one falls into his lap), and with most free-agents probably being offered 1 year deals he'll have the fact that we're a legitimate contender with all the important pieces in place as an additional selling point.

 

[Southcack77]

The thing that worries me about including Riley in a Seager deal - EVEN if they take Ender's money back - is that you're going to have to play Duvall against RHPs more than you want AND it pretty severely limits any amount of money AA will have left to spend (assuming he has any).

For *hits and giggles, lets assume adding Seager minus Ender and Riley's 2021 salaries adds $9.2 million to the payroll. If our guess that AA is probably working with ~ $25 million to spend (at best), that leaves you ~ $16 million. One way to pinch a few pennies would obviously be to have A-Jax or Contreras as d'Arnaud's backup while having Travis play more than every-other day. Now you're down to $15 million. Another $1 million for the backup SS knocks that down to $14 million. Maybe you pinch a few more pennies there and have Delgado as the backup infielder since he has to be added to the 40-Man Roster. If you can get Reddick to platoon with Duvall, you're left with $10-$11 million to spend on a veteran SP and another pen arm - with nothing left to spend at the deadline.

I'm all for that personally - as Enscheff mentions, I think there are going to be some incredible bargains out there - particularly on the pitching side. The lineup would be balanced, and you'd have Waters and Shewmake not that far away in the event of an injury. The question - from a typical fan's standpoint - is going to be just how unhappy is the general fanbase going to be if you replace Ozuna and Riley with Seager and a platoon AND you wait really late to add whatever pitching slips through the cracks? Pitching ALWAYS seems to cost more than we think it should, so AA would have to stay incredibly disciplined and not jump too soon. The thing he'd have working in his favor is that he'd only be looking for an innings-eater and a 6th/7th inning guy - he won't need a big piece for either of those roles (unless one falls into his lap), and with most free-agents probably being offered 1 year deals he'll have the fact that we're a legitimate contender with all the important pieces in place as an additional selling point.

Help me understand how including Riley in a Seagar deal makes it more likely you have to play Duvall vs RHP? I'm not sure how Riley really changes that dynamic? Beyond the option of playing Riley in the OF vs RHP, which hardly seems better.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Why not wait until the DH issue is decided. Surely with all the unknowns out there the MLBPA and MLB are going to minimize their sides of potential disaster again in 2021. Seager over Riley is minimal improvement before even considering money. Barring injury the pitchers on hand should be very competitive at least. If need to trade someone, Duvall should be easier to move than Ender. In fact, if DH is brought back go with Ozuna, sign Brad Hand, trade Duvall and maybe Will Smith. Go to war and hope Pache and Waters come into being. Plan on dumping Ender at the deadline. I know this still leaves you RH heavy but then again cant say the LH hitters helped last year that much.

 

[drewdat]

Making some assumptions, and if the budget is there, I think it makes more sense to take on new salaries in a deflated market than to give up assets for albatross contracts. Even final year arbitration guys seem like they could be poor value if the market is bad enough. Of course, there's a finite number of useful FAs. And who knows, maybe the Mets buy everyone.

 

[clvclv]

Help me understand how including Riley in a Seagar deal makes it more likely you have to play Duvall vs RHP? I'm not sure how Riley really changes that dynamic? Beyond the option of playing Riley in the OF vs RHP, which hardly seems better.

If you're left needing to pinch pennies to spend on pitching, you don't add a platoon partner for Duvall - and you have to play Seager everyday as well. You no longer have any option at 3B to give Seager a day off against tough lefties. All these salary projections are based on Camargo being non-tendered. If you don't add a LF platoon guy of at least Reddick's ilk, you could probably keep Camargo as your emergency 3B and sign someone like Matt Joyce, Jon Jay, or bring back Schebler as a part-time platoon guy, but are you any more confident in one of them than simply playing Duvall against all but the strongest RHPs instead?

Reddick's probably going to be able to find a one year deal in the $4 million range, but he'd give you a solid platoon partner for Duvall (career .270/.330/.440 against RHPs). If you keep Camargo around you could play him once in a while against LHPs when you give Seager a day off, but that would only leave you ~ $2 million to bring someone in for LF, and for that kind of money that guy's not likely going to be good enough to be the strong side of the platoon.

It's not so much that Riley gives you a better option in LF against RHPs - it's that keeping him and dumping Duvall's money saves you around $5 million that could be spent on a stronger platoon partner/backup C/pitching (not to mention a much better 3B option than Camargo when Seager takes a day off).

 

[Enscheff]

Why not wait until the DH issue is decided. Surely with all the unknowns out there the MLBPA and MLB are going to minimize their sides of potential disaster again in 2021. Seager over Riley is minimal improvement before even considering money. Barring injury the pitchers on hand should be very competitive at least. If need to trade someone, Duvall should be easier to move than Ender. In fact, if DH is brought back go with Ozuna, sign Brad Hand, trade Duvall and maybe Will Smith. Go to war and hope Pache and Waters come into being. Plan on dumping Ender at the deadline. I know this still leaves you RH heavy but then again cant say the LH hitters helped last year that much.

Seaver over Riley is minimal improvement?

Seager has posted offensive numbers 10% to 18% better than MLB average the last 2 seasons.

Riley has been 11% to 14% below average those same 2 seasons.

That’s a difference of ~25%, so calling that minimal is pretty silly.

The Braves may not be able to afford it considering other holes on the roster, but it would be a significant upgrade at 3b.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Seaver over Riley is minimal improvement?

Seager has posted offensive numbers 10% to 18% better than MLB average the last 2 seasons.

Riley has been 11% to 14% below average those same 2 seasons.

That’s a difference of ~25%, so calling that minimal is pretty silly.

The Braves may not be able to afford it considering other holes on the roster, but it would be a significant upgrade at 3b.

My perception of minimal may not agree with yours but considering the unknowns of the finances available 2 years of Seager at $34M or so versus Rileys remaining years of pre arb, age, potential makes it seemingly minimal. I guess what Im saying is Riley is adequate at least until other questions are answered, such as DH, BP and OF.

 

[clvclv]

If you're left needing to pinch pennies to spend on pitching, you don't add a platoon partner for Duvall - and you have to play Seager everyday as well. You no longer have any option at 3B to give Seager a day off against tough lefties. All these salary projections are based on Camargo being non-tendered. If you don't add a LF platoon guy of at least Reddick's ilk, you could probably keep Camargo as your emergency 3B and sign someone like Matt Joyce, Jon Jay, or bring back Schebler as a part-time platoon guy, but are you any more confident in one of them than simply playing Duvall against all but the strongest RHPs instead?

Reddick's probably going to be able to find a one year deal in the $4 million range, but he'd give you a solid platoon partner for Duvall (career .270/.330/.440 against RHPs). If you keep Camargo around you could play him once in a while against LHPs when you give Seager a day off, but that would only leave you ~ $2 million to bring someone in for LF, and for that kind of money that guy's not likely going to be good enough to be the strong side of the platoon.

It's not so much that Riley gives you a better option in LF against RHPs - it's that keeping him and dumping Duvall's money saves you around $5 million that could be spent on a stronger platoon partner/backup C/pitching (not to mention a much better 3B option than Camargo when Seager takes a day off).

Don't misunderstand - as Enscheff laid out, adding Seager to replace Riley is probably worth it no matter how you slice it offensively, but doing so will likely require keeping Camargo AND pinching pennies in other places - even if Seattle would take Ender and his money.

As he and others have laid out before, finding a platoon partner for Duvall is probably going to be much easier than finding a platoon partner for Riley that can be the strong side of the platoon PLUS play acceptable defense at 3B on the cheap. Whether upgrading from Riley to Seager while not bringing back one of Melancon or Greene OR having to go bottom of the barrel diving for a veteran SP would be the discussion you'd probably have to have at that point.

 

[clvclv]

My perception of minimal may not agree with yours but considering the unknowns of the finances available 2 years of Seager at $34M or so versus Rileys remaining years of pre arb, age, potential makes it seemingly minimal. I guess what Im saying is Riley is adequate at least until other questions are answered, such as DH, BP and OF.

If you want to assume there's going to be an NL DH in 2021, there's absolutely NO WAY the Braves can fill the other holes you mention - PLUS all rotation options have to already be "in-house". If you have to pay a full-time DH, there's nowhere near enough money available to add a veteran SP (of any consequence).

There's simply no way to add a platoon partner for Duvall, a full-time DH, and another pen arm with $25 million - the names AA is going to have to look at are REALLY going to disappoint most people if it comes to that. An upgrade from Riley to Seager would at least mean that other "upgrades" wouldn't need to be nearly as significant.

 

[Southcack77]

If you're left needing to pinch pennies to spend on pitching, you don't add a platoon partner for Duvall - and you have to play Seager everyday as well. You no longer have any option at 3B to give Seager a day off against tough lefties. All these salary projections are based on Camargo being non-tendered. If you don't add a LF platoon guy of at least Reddick's ilk, you could probably keep Camargo as your emergency 3B and sign someone like Matt Joyce, Jon Jay, or bring back Schebler as a part-time platoon guy, but are you any more confident in one of them than simply playing Duvall against all but the strongest RHPs instead?

Reddick's probably going to be able to find a one year deal in the $4 million range, but he'd give you a solid platoon partner for Duvall (career .270/.330/.440 against RHPs). If you keep Camargo around you could play him once in a while against LHPs when you give Seager a day off, but that would only leave you ~ $2 million to bring someone in for LF, and for that kind of money that guy's not likely going to be good enough to be the strong side of the platoon.

It's not so much that Riley gives you a better option in LF against RHPs - it's that keeping him and dumping Duvall's money saves you around $5 million that could be spent on a stronger platoon partner/backup C/pitching (not to mention a much better 3B option than Camargo when Seager takes a day off).

Ok I follow you.

I do think that someone like Matt Joyce might be better vs RHP than Duvall.

Also, why do you think they'd trade Riley in a Seagar deal? That's a pretty big overpay.

Finally, Seagar is a mixed bag vs LHP. He's up and down career wise.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

If you want to assume there's going to be an NL DH in 2021, there's absolutely NO WAY the Braves can fill the other holes you mention - PLUS all rotation options have to already be "in-house". If you have to pay a full-time DH, there's nowhere near enough money available to add a veteran SP (of any consequence).

There's simply no way to add a platoon partner for Duvall, a full-time DH, and another pen arm with $25 million - the names AA is going to have to look at are REALLY going to disappoint most people if it comes to that. An upgrade from Riley to Seager would at least mean that other "upgrades" wouldn't need to be nearly as significant.

Which hole did you pull that $25M from. Do you have inside info or does your imagination run wild? Same old crap every year. I hear echos of "Lets sign Lucroy and he can provide salvation to the Braves"

 

[Heyward]

There's going to be a ton of ways for AA to add this winter. With alot of teams shedding salary. I'm kinda for making a super bullpen over getting a 4th-5th SP, but i may be alone on this. Adding Greene/MM for like 7 mil combined, and then another backend guy to replace O'Day would give Snit a ton of options.

Now, how to improve the lineup will be AA's biggest trick this offseason. We're locked into TDA, FF, Ozzie, Swanson, Acuna, and based on postseason, i think Pache is opening day CF. 3B, and LF and pending DH are the lineup holes. I like Riley but you can upgrade him if you go cheap on the SP front and Soroka's ready for OD.

 

[Heyward]

If you want to assume there's going to be an NL DH in 2021, there's absolutely NO WAY the Braves can fill the other holes you mention - PLUS all rotation options have to already be "in-house". If you have to pay a full-time DH, there's nowhere near enough money available to add a veteran SP (of any consequence).

There's simply no way to add a platoon partner for Duvall, a full-time DH, and another pen arm with $25 million - the names AA is going to have to look at are REALLY going to disappoint most people if it comes to that. An upgrade from Riley to Seager would at least mean that other "upgrades" wouldn't need to be nearly as significant.

We're at 89 on spotrac and thats without possibly cutting guys like Jackson, Dayton and Camargo if every penny counts. If OD payroll is 120-125, we should have around 30-35 mil to play with. Who knows, or more if AA is feeling like he can take advantage of this market or not. If we cut Dayton, Jackson and Camargo that would put payroll at 83 mil, giving AA nearly 40 mil to spend if payroll is 120ish on OD. Plenty enough for a couple bats, a rotation piece and some bullpen depth.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Passan reports that DH is on the table from MLB in exchange for expanded playoffs. MLBPA does not want expanded playoffs. Possible solution is shortened season. The DH is coming IMO.

 

[50PoundHead]

Passan reports that DH is on the table from MLB in exchange for expanded playoffs. MLBPA does not want expanded playoffs. Possible solution is shortened season. The DH is coming IMO.

I don't know why the players would be against expanded playoffs. I really don't want a greatly truncated season or turning MLB into the NBA or NHL when it comes to playoffs, but if you sliced 8 to 12 games off the regular and added another round or a couple of play-in games, I have a hard time figuring why the players would object that aggressively. Of course, splitting the proceeds of the playoff dollars may be a sticking point.

 

[Heyward]

I don't know why the players would be against expanded playoffs. I really don't want a greatly truncated season or turning MLB into the NBA or NHL when it comes to playoffs, but if you sliced 8 to 12 games off the regular and added another round or a couple of play-in games, I have a hard time figuring why the players would object that aggressively. Of course, splitting the proceeds of the playoff dollars may be a sticking point.

The top seeds should get some advantage instead of having to play a best of 3 in a random playoff setting where anything can happen. I can see that but the DH in both leagues is best for baseball.

 

[weso1]

Give the top teams a one win head start.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I don't know why the players would be against expanded playoffs. I really don't want a greatly truncated season or turning MLB into the NBA or NHL when it comes to playoffs, but if you sliced 8 to 12 games off the regular and added another round or a couple of play-in games, I have a hard time figuring why the players would object that aggressively. Of course, splitting the proceeds of the playoff dollars may be a sticking point.

Just like any other worker. You want more work out of me (extended playoffs, longer season), I want more pay. OTOH the employers (MLB) want more money therefore need more work (games) from those players. You and I are old enough to remember the 154 game season and certainly in my case the two 8 team leagues playing a 7 game playoff. IIRC in those days the owners and players split the revenue from first 4 games and owners kept all rest of games/revenue money.

 

[clvclv]

Ok I follow you.

I do think that someone like Matt Joyce might be better vs RHP than Duvall.

Also, why do you think they'd trade Riley in a Seagar deal? That's a pretty big overpay.

Finally, Seagar is a mixed bag vs LHP. He's up and down career wise.

Not so sure just how big an overpay he'd be - I've wanted him to turn into "the guy" as much as anyone but we've had a pretty good look at his adjustments, and those saying the jury's still out are right so far. He's OK struggling a bit while he's cheap and hitting 8th in a lineup with the DH but AA needs to replace a big chunk of Ozuna's production, and Duvall and/or Riley just aren't going to cut it if they have to hit in the middle of the lineup (and play everyday).

Seager's not Freeman against LHPs, no doubt about that - but he's good enough that you don't need to spend much money at all for someone to platoon with him. He's at least good enough that you can get away with giving him his days off against the really nasty lefties and playing him against "average" guys. On top of that, you'd be in a much better position with him at 3B since you're going to face right-handed SPs much more often than lefties. If you were going to bring someone in to be a strict platoon-mate for Riley, he's not going to play a whole lot. Most opposing staffs are going to have one or two lefties (at most), so there will be times that you'd face 6-8 (or more) RHPs in a row with no need to worry about matchups for Seager. As things within the division stand, you'd probably only "need" to sit Seager against Patrick Corbin, David Peterson, and Trevor Rogers - those are the only left-handed SPs currently in the East unless the Mutts bring Matz back. We're talking about less than 10 times all season.

I don't disagree that Joyce wouldn't be a terrible choice to pair with Duvall - particularly if you're upgrading from Riley to Seager - he's just not a particularly sexy name for most fans. If you could fill the platoon partner for Duvall and have Camargo play 3B against LHPs every couple weeks FOR $4 million or less, I could live with that - that's where you could save a little money to spend on pitching. The thing everybody easily forgets is that you're talking about somebody hitting in the bottom-third of an NL lineup that likely has the Pitcher hitting (at least for 2021), and you're upgrading from Ender to Pache in the #8 hole. If you add Seager, Duvall and WHOEVER you platoon with him isn't going to hit any higher than 7th (Acuna/Freeman/d'Arnaud/Seager/Ozzie/Dansby) anyway.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Give the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs a one win head start.

How it would actually happen.