Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Russ2dollas]

If we have the money, I am thinking 2 years for Brantley and a one year deal for Cruz.

Duvall may have some trade value, but nothing of substance.

Turner is only an option if the Dodgers land Lindor or the like. For a long time ppl have said Turner is playing for the Dodgers or retiring. Maybe that is wrong. There was some buzz Morton was Rays or retire.

I am still hopeful there is a couple of million left to sign Greene or MM or a similar guy. Need some more pen unless Wilson, Touki, and/or Newk are back in the pen. Need a high leverage RH, right?

 

[Russ2dollas]

I have the Braves sitting right at $114M right now with a $0 at backup SS and OF/DH. I refuse to believe the plan was to spend $26M on SPs and let Mayfield and Almonte take bench spots on the MLB roster.

Pos Player 2021 Salary
1 C d'Arnaud $8.00
2 1B Freeman $22.00
3 2B Albies $3.00
4 3B Riley $0.60
5 SS Swanson $3.30
6 LF Acuna $5.00
7 CF Pache $0.60
8 RF Duvall $4.70

9 SP1 Soroka $0.60
10 SP2 Fried $2.40
11 SP3 Anderson $0.60
12 SP4 Morton $15.00
13 SP5 Smyly $11.00

14 BN1 IF $0.00
15 BN2 Camargo $2.00
16 BN3 OF $0.00
17 BN4 Inciarte $8.70
18 BN5 Contreras $0.60

19 BP1 Jackson $2.00
20 BP2 Minter $1.10
21 BP3 Dayton $0.80
22 BP4 Martin $7.00
23 BP5 Smith $13.00
24 BP6 Ynoa $0.60
25 BP7 Matzek $0.60
26 BP8 Webb $0.60

EX BO O'Day $0.50

Total $114.30

This tells me there are a few possibilities:

1. Payroll is cut to ~$120M, and AA plans to add a platoon partner for Duvall (Rosario) and a Hech replacement, and go with Riley at 3B. In this scenario, DH would be filled by rotating guys through the spot if it is used in 2020.

2. Payroll is largely unaffected and reamins at $140M+. In this scenario, AA just freed up arms like Touki and Wright to be used in a Bryant trade. Turner is an option. Ozuna and Cruz are both options if the DH is in play for 2020. Basically everyone is an option.

We will know a lot about what the plan is when they make a decision on Duvall. If they keep him it's hard to imagine they go big in LF and relegate $5M to the bench.

AA has already surpassed my ideal pitching staff, which was just the addition of Morton for $10-$15M. My ideal outcome for the DH roster is Rosario, Cruz at DH, and Riley getting 400 PAs at 3B. My ideal outcome for the non-DH roster is Rosario and Turner on a 1-2 year deal. Hopefully AA has the $20M+ to make that or something similar happen.

IF we have the DH and Contreras is our second catcher, do you think we'd go with 3 catchers?

I think it makes a lot sense. You put Jackson on the roster for the minimum. He can PH when you need a bomb (he'll strike out). But you can use him to keep Contreras down and get another year of control.

When all 3 are on the roster it gives you the flexability to put TDA at DH and/or pinch hit Contreras or TDA.

If we have DH ball, I'd rather have the ability to put TDA or Contreras at the plate than Comargo, hech, Culberson. Snit showed last year he's not playing a culberson type with the DH, so a third catcher makes sense.

The concern with having Contreras up is stunting his growth and/or taking TDA out of the line up. 3 catchers fixes that b/c Conteras can get an at bat as a PH every day. Plus you prepare him to take over for TDA the next year.

 

[Super]

i honestly don't know how the MLB can justify not deciding on universal DH as free agency has begun.
that one rule will change so much. it needs to be determined yesterday.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

i honestly don't know how the MLB can justify not deciding on universal DH as free agency has begun.
that one rule will change so much. it needs to be determined yesterday.

Really is unfortunate they have not made a final decision on it. It leaves the NL team in limbo, which in turn, leaves a good number of free agent players in limbo.

 

[Russ2dollas]

It’s bc they know the players want it. They won’t do Anything the players want without getting something in return.

It’s toxic.

It’s why this next year is our last hope for a full mlb season for a while. These greedy jerks are going to ruin most of the 22-23 season

 

[Tapate50]

Do we circle back to Puig ?

 

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Do we circle back to Puig ?

Puig join Trevor Bauer agent Luba Sports. Probably looking for a multiple year contract.

 

[Heyward]

I still think the Mets are going to do:
Bauer
DeGrom
Syndergaard
Stroman
Peterson

That's still much better than our rotation. Our pen is worse w/o green and melancin.

We need two more bats.

Thor wont be back until the 2nd half of the season. Stroman isnt better than Anderson/Morton. Peterson is worse than our 5th. Unless Mets land Springer, JTR and Bauer, nothing to sweat with them. We'll see if they land Bauer.

Mets also have way worse depth in their rotation than we do.

 

[NYCBrave]

If we have the money, I am thinking 2 years for Brantley and a one year deal for Cruz.

Duvall may have some trade value, but nothing of substance.

Turner is only an option if the Dodgers land Lindor or the like. For a long time ppl have said Turner is playing for the Dodgers or retiring. Maybe that is wrong. There was some buzz Morton was Rays or retire.

I am still hopeful there is a couple of million left to sign Greene or MM or a similar guy. Need some more pen unless Wilson, Touki, and/or Newk are back in the pen. Need a high leverage RH, right?

Still have a feeling that valuable relievers like Greene or MM will end up being bargains this off season. I hope we have some cash stashed to land at least one of those types.

 

[clvclv]

Do we circle back to Puig ?

Would have to imagine he's a back-burner type of option just like last year. Maybe he's floating around in the back of AA's thoughts somewhere in the event all the other roads come to dead ends.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Would have to imagine he's a back-burner type of option just like last year. Maybe he's floating around in the back of AA's thoughts somewhere in the event all the other roads come to dead ends.

I could see us circle back to him if we DFA or trade Duvall....but he would be 4th OFer material at best

 

[BedellBrave]

It’s bc they know the players want it. They won’t do Anything the players want without getting something in return.

It’s toxic.

It’s why this next year is our last hope for a full mlb season for a while. These greedy jerks are going to ruin most of the 22-23 season

Which might be an impetus for AA/Liberty to make a push this year?

 

[Super]

Do we circle back to Puig ?

maybe if Pederson's market is too robust.
i didn't realize just how bad his regular season was last year. and he actually hit lefties better than righties, which we know is a SSS aberration. but last year should still bring his value down a bit. really curious what he signs for.

 

[clvclv]

The Morton thread doesn't seem to have much talk about Morton at this point, so I'll post this here...

Seager was mentioned again, but the proposed offer for him was WAY light. Sure they'd probably like to get out from under some of that money, but they're not going to take a RP prospect AND eat Ender's money to move him - come on now.

Their top prospects either have started arriving (Lewis, White, Crawford, Sheffield, Dunn) or will arrive by next season (Kelenic, Rodriguez, Trammell, Hancock, Gilbert, Kirby). Ty France isn't "the answer" at 3B if they trade Seager, and they don't have anyone in their system that's likely going to stick there defensively either.

Riley will have to be part of a Seager deal if AA hopes to get them to take Ender's money back, and there's no reason not to include him if you're getting Seager. Seager's not Freeman against LHPs (by any stretch), but he "gets by" against them - he's almost 50 OPS points better against lefties than Riley is against righties. If you're going to bring someone in to platoon with Austin, you go get someone like Shaw that mashes RHPs the way Riley does LHPs. Seager's an everyday guy, and Shaw is even better against RHPs than Seager.

At this point there's no reason to believe that getting out from under Ender's money is a big concern - it's tough to imagine that it is after watching AA spend $26 million on SPs. If including something good to get rid of his money leads to adding someone like Ozuna, Springer, or even Brantley maybe you do it, but the way Alex is spending money makes it look like he doesn't need to do that. Non-tendering Duvall, Camargo, Jackson, and Dayton gives you $10.8 million to put towards signing one of them - if you have to add getting rid of Ender's money to that to cover Seager's salary, you still don't have a LF.

It's probably fair to assume that AA has another $15 million to spend without unloading any of the money currently on the books. That's enough money to bring in someone like Rosario or Pederson to pair with Duvall (~ $10 million), replace Jackson with one of Melancon or Greene (~ 3 million), AND bring in someone to replace Camargo that allows Snitker to sit Riley against the toughest lefties (~ $2 million). Until the Commissioner and ownership get off their *sses and decide there's going to be a DH in the NL in 2021, there's no reason to give up something valuable (even slightly) to get rid of Ender. Keeping him around - even if it's just for the first 6 weeks - is worth it if it gives you an extra year of control over Pache.

 

[bravesguy]

I guess I do not get the thought of trading for Seager. If he replaces Riley, you are getting the exact same batter (just from the other side) as you have now. You pay $18M more and hope that ages 33+ do not show significant regression (like it does on almost all non-superstars).

If you want to platoon him with Riley, you get a better 3B overall. However, overall you pay $18M more with downward trajectory.

That does not even take into consideration the thoughts that Riley could actually improve. I know we have seen his 1st 131 games (over two years) and decided that he is topped out, but really??? He played 1/2 of a season, showed significant holes in his swing that were obviously exploited. He came back in a weird season and had improved his K rate & BB rate significantly. At 23 years old, I bet Seattle would trade Seager for Riley (straight up). It is a break even right now on the field but has tremendous benefits for the team (finances) as a whole and huge potential going forward.

 

[Carp]

Thor wont be back until the 2nd half of the season. Stroman isnt better than Anderson/Morton. Peterson is worse than our 5th. Unless Mets land Springer, JTR and Bauer, nothing to sweat with them. We'll see if they land Bauer.

Mets also have way worse depth in their rotation than we do.

Stroman is def better than Anderson. A toss up whether he's better than Morton. Depends on which Stroman shows up in 2021. If it's the 2019 version, he's def better than Morton. I don't know enough about Peterson to know if 2020 was a fluke for him, but they also have Matz if he isn't non-tendered. He has been a very solid pitcher for them over the years. And they certainly have the money to add another pitcher than just Bauer as well.

Mets should def be a threat in 2021, but we're still a good bit better at this point.

 

[Carp]

I guess I do not get the thought of trading for Seager. If he replaces Riley, you are getting the exact same batter (just from the other side) as you have now. You pay $18M more and hope that ages 33+ do not show significant regression (like it does on almost all non-superstars).

If you want to platoon him with Riley, you get a better 3B overall. However, overall you pay $18M more with downward trajectory.

That does not even take into consideration the thoughts that Riley could actually improve. I know we have seen his 1st 131 games (over two years) and decided that he is topped out, but really??? He played 1/2 of a season, showed significant holes in his swing that were obviously exploited. He came back in a weird season and had improved his K rate & BB rate significantly. At 23 years old, I bet Seattle would trade Seager for Riley (straight up). It is a break even right now on the field but has tremendous benefits for the team (finances) as a whole and huge potential going forward.

As noted in the other thread, Seagar is a good bit better than Riley. It really isn't close. And considering like 75% of starting pitchers in the league are RH, I'd say it's much more important to have a guy starting that actually hits RHP well.

 

[Super]

I guess I do not get the thought of trading for Seager. If he replaces Riley, you are getting the exact same batter (just from the other side) as you have now. You pay $18M more and hope that ages 33+ do not show significant regression (like it does on almost all non-superstars).

Riley hasn't come close to hitting at Seager's level. you would be taking a gamble that he'll close the cap considerably, but so far, he hasn't been close. and if the playoffs are any indication...
projection systems seem bullish on Riley, much to my surprise. Steamer has Riley as a *better* hitter than Seager (102 wRC+ to 98). i'll believe it when i see it, but i'd certainly be stoked to be wrong.

 

[Super]

As noted in the other thread, Seagar is a good bit better than Riley. It really isn't close. And considering like 75% of starting pitchers in the league are RH, I'd say it's much more important to have a guy starting that actually hits RHP well.

peep projections tho. obviously they're just that: projections. what do you make of them really liking Riley? i can't really figure it out.
if Riley can approach 2 WAR, there's no reason to touch 3B. just get an OF.

 

[Carp]

peep projections tho. obviously they're just that: projections. what do you make of them really liking Riley? i can't really figure it out.
if Riley can approach 2 WAR, there's no reason to touch 3B. just get an OF.

I don't see anyway that happens unless he has a platoon partner taking away at bats from RHP. He is like really, really bad vs RHP. He improved slightly in 2020, but still really bad, and it could basically just be noise over a small # of ABs.