Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Super said:
..what do you make of them really liking Riley? i can't really figure it out..
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For me it the growth projections that still intrigue me.
Year 1, swing for the fences but can't layoff the Slider away...figured out and schooled.
Year 2, obviously worked on that aspect of pitch recognition, made significant improvements
Year 3, don't know what he is working on this offseason, but lets say he makes the necessary changes to meet projections (2WAR is pretty good for season 3 (really like 2 in growth).

In my mind, I compare his growth with Swanson, came up a little early and was figured out. Swanson saw 3 years worth of strong starts followed by the league adjusting, until this past year when he seemed to put it together. I think the same will happen with Riley.
 
Carp said:
I don't see anyway that happens unless he has a platoon partner taking away at bats from RHP. He is like really, really bad vs RHP. He improved slightly in 2020, but still really bad, and it could basically just be noise over a small # of ABs.
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if he's platooning, there's no way he gets to 30 bombs.
i'm just surprised pretty much all the projections seems to like him a lot.
 
bravesguy said:
For me it the growth projections that still intrigue me.
Year 1, swing for the fences but can't layoff the Slider away...figured out and schooled.
Year 2, obviously worked on that aspect of pitch recognition, made significant improvements
Year 3, don't know what he is working on this offseason, but lets say he makes the necessary changes to meet projections (2WAR is pretty good for season 3 (really like 2 in growth).

In my mind, I compare his growth with Swanson, came up a little early and was figured out. Swanson saw 3 years worth of strong starts followed by the league adjusting, until this past year when he seemed to put it together. I think the same will happen with Riley.
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cutting his k-rate from 36.4% to 23.8% is such massive improvement, it's kind of crazy to see. he did that while raising his BB%.
Enscheff has pointed out how his recognition/swing rates improved a good bit.
but even with those improvements..he was -0.1 fWAR last year.
1.9 fWAR seems like a pipe dream. he's young and reportedly a hard worker. but man...that's quite a leap.
 
To me, what he needs to work on is his approach at the plate. When he got hot last year, he was taking pitches away to opposite field (also very similar to Swanson). I am not sure if that is a hard approach to learn, but Freeman has to be the best influence in the league with that regard.

When he gets pull happy, he struggles until he happens to catch one to drive deep. I guess he will get paid for the 30 bombs, not the .290 BA, so we will see if he can improve.
 
Super said:
if he's platooning, there's no way he gets to 30 bombs.
i'm just surprised pretty much all the projections seems to like him a lot.
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This is true. 30 bombs doesn't happen. But 1.5-2 WAR could def happen if he hits LHP like he did in 2019 and we limit his exposure to RHP.
 
bravesguy said:
I guess I do not get the thought of trading for Seager. If he replaces Riley, you are getting the exact same batter (just from the other side) as you have now. You pay $18M more and hope that ages 33+ do not show significant regression (like it does on almost all non-superstars).

If you want to platoon him with Riley, you get a better 3B overall. However, overall you pay $18M more with downward trajectory.

That does not even take into consideration the thoughts that Riley could actually improve. I know we have seen his 1st 131 games (over two years) and decided that he is topped out, but really??? He played 1/2 of a season, showed significant holes in his swing that were obviously exploited. He came back in a weird season and had improved his K rate & BB rate significantly. At 23 years old, I bet Seattle would trade Seager for Riley (straight up). It is a break even right now on the field but has tremendous benefits for the team (finances) as a whole and huge potential going forward.
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Seagar is a better hitter and defender.

It doesn't make sense to trade Riley for Seagar.
 
Super said:
cutting his k-rate from 36.4% to 23.8% is such massive improvement, it's kind of crazy to see. he did that while raising his BB%.
Enscheff has pointed out how his recognition/swing rates improved a good bit.
but even with those improvements..he was -0.1 fWAR last year.
1.9 fWAR seems like a pipe dream. he's young and reportedly a hard worker. but man...that's quite a leap.
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Riley was a bit unlucky in his results last year, but raised his xwOBA from .309 to .325. Despite similar results, he was much better in 2020 than 2019. He was an average hitter in 2020, and if you give an average hitter that plays average or better defense a full season he should approximate the average WAR of an MLB player....2.

This isn’t like when Camargo fluked his way to a 3 win season by having every hard hit ball fall for extra bases. Anyone with half a clue saw Camargo for what he was, and he should have never been “given a chance to see what he can do”...and he wasn’t...because AA is smart.

So unless the Braves need to put Ozuna’s replacement at 3b (which may happen if no DH), I’d like to see them stick with Riley and switch lanes at the deadline if needed.
 
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The deadline to tender contracts for 2021 is now 1 week away. Who do you think the Braves will cut loose?

I can see Camargo and Dayton for sure. Duvall is up in the air. With the amount we have spent on the rotation, does that mean Jackson is safe?
 
CrimeDog247 said:
He’s not that much better and costs a hell of a lot more.
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Seagar has been a significantly better player than Riley over the last 2 years and it hasn't been remotely close.

It's fine if people think Seagar is too expensive. That's a valid concern. It's likewise a valid concern if you believe he is likely to decline over the next 2 years. But any narrative that Riley has been anywhere close to as good as Seagar is completely wrong.
 
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All this trash can talk about Riley and wanting to scrap heap him or trade him for a 12 year veteran with declining numbers reminds me that some people may be wiser to do a bit of research. A late first round pick is not cheap. At one time he was the top or near top prospect in the Braves organization. But the telling thing to me at the moment is looking at Mike Schmidt stats for his age 23 season (which Riley just completed) and compare the two. Now dont misunderstand, Im not forecasting Riley as a future HOFer but damn, it certainly is too early to claim someone like Seager is the salvation of the Braves when there are much more crucial needs.
 
Carp said:
Seagar has been a significantly better player than Riley over the last 2 years and it hasn't been remotely close.

It's fine if people think Seagar is too expensive. That's a valid concern. It's likewise a valid concern if you believe he is likely to decline over the next 2 years. But any narrative that Riley has been anywhere close to as good as Seagar is completely wrong.
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The difference in the two is not significant enough to spend that much more money. Anyone using that narrative is completely wrong.
 
Carp said:
As noted in the other thread, Seagar is a good bit better than Riley. It really isn't close. And considering like 75% of starting pitchers in the league are RH, I'd say it's much more important to have a guy starting that actually hits RHP well.
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This is the reason for moving Riley (if you're going to do it) IMO, but if you're eating up the biggest chunk of the money available to add someone to platoon with Duvall, how much are you actually improving? As far as we "know" as of now, Waters isn't going to be an option as a platoon-mate for Duvall in 2021 - meaning AA is going to have to go outside of the organization and spend money if he doesn't want to play Duvall everyday. I can't imagine either of those statements are wrong. HOW he best spends the money to upgrade 3B and LF against RHPs is fair to argue about, but I also can't imagine there's any chance this team can get by the Dodgers - even with the improved rotation - if you lose Ozuna AND utilize Duvall and Riley as everyday players.

There are legitimate points to be made for someone who wants to spend all the money one way or another - when making one we need to understand that what's being spent in one place is likely going to hurt elsewhere though. If someone wants to spend $15-$18 million (or more) on Ozuna/Springer/Brantley, just remember you're going to have to deal with Ozuna's *hitty defense every day and Riley as your everyday 3B. Spend that much on Seager or Turner, and Duvall or Riley is going to be your everyday LF.

I'm all for getting one of the big bats to hit behind Freeman if that's where AA thinks it's the best place to spend what money he has, but I'll also be the first one to point out that he did what made the fans happy when they're *itching about the black hole in LF or at 3B when there's a RHP on the mound or when Ozuna kicks it around. Shooting his wad on one big bat is a "win the offseason" type of move - and one that just doesn't feel like something Alex will do.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
The deadline to tender contracts for 2021 is now 1 week away. Who do you think the Braves will cut loose?

I can see Camargo and Dayton for sure. Duvall is up in the air. With the amount we have spent on the rotation, does that mean Jackson is safe?
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Not likely IMO. The cheapest place to find upgrades this winter is going to be in the pen - literally a ton of legitimate 7th inning or later options available, and not that many contenders to drive the prices on ALL of them through the roof like during a normal offseason. Replacing Jackson with someone like Melancon or Greene (or possibly better) will likely cost maybe $2-$3 million more than what Jackson's due - that type of improvement for "chump change" seems like a slam dunk to me.
 
When AA comes out and states that the $120M you have spouted all off season is all he has and he is done fixing any roster problems then lets revisit this issue. No team is ever going to have the perfect lineup in this day and age. We all know and Im sure AA is just as aware as any of us that LF and DH (probably) need to be fixed. Personally, and I dont know for sure, but I think AA is setting up for a trade or two once the DH issue is resolved. By signing Morton and Smyly he can spring some pretty valuable trade chips for some young talent for LF OR 3d. Some team like Cleveland or Detroit might have interest in Duvall even.
 
This thread has now devolved into saying Seager isn’t a marked improvement over Riley, and Mike Schmidt and his always stellar plate discipline is evidence Riley can still get better.

Always good for a laugh haha.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
When AA comes out and states that the $120M you have spouted all off season is all he has and he is done fixing any roster problems then lets revisit this issue. No team is ever going to have the perfect lineup in this day and age. We all know and Im sure AA is just as aware as any of us that LF and DH (probably) need to be fixed. Personally, and I dont know for sure, but I think AA is setting up for a trade or two once the DH issue is resolved. By signing Morton and Smyly he can spring some pretty valuable trade chips for some young talent for LF OR 3d. Some team like Cleveland or Detroit might have interest in Duvall even.
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Which one of them has a better LF/3B/DH? Duvall's money isn't the issue - it's not guaranteed - it disappears if you get a better LF/DH. What would you trade him to the Indians or Tigers to get? You can give Ozuna or Seager or Turner $18 million this year and feel like you're "only" paying them $12 million by getting rid of Duvall, but you'll still have Riley at 3B or in LF.

It's obvious that AA's been given more latitude to spend than most of us expected, but I promise you there's a limit - and after spending $26 million on the rotation he's going to be coming up on it pretty fast. It's perfectly reasonable at this point to imagine he has another $15-$20 million to spend, but expecting Pederson and Seager as platoon partners AND Ozuna if there's a DH is going to leave you incredibly disappointed. Sorry.

In all likelihood AA can afford ONE big bat or solid upgrades at 3B and in LF - and that's with no DH.
 
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Enscheff said:
This thread has now devolved into saying Seager isn’t a marked improvement over Riley, and Mike Schmidt and his always stellar plate discipline is evidence Riley can still get better.

Always good for a laugh haha.
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If this is aimed at anything I have posted then laugh your ass right off. At $35M for the next 2 years of Seager versus $600K to see if Riley can continue to improve is pretty foolish for a mid market team IMO.
 
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