Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

zbhargrove said:
I don't think Benintendi will be more than a bit player if that on any MLB in a couple years. He's just not very good. He had a good rookie year and has been awful ever since.
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He sure has taken a downturn. Interesting comments section on the article in the link clvclv provided. Seemingly no middle ground.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
You are the only one of the two of us whom I recall making any assumptions. Wait, assumptions dont apply to you since you stated unequivically for days on end since forever ago that $120M was the ceiling. In fact I recall you being totally against non tendering Duvall in favor of a Pederson platoon. Now you put Duvall out there without a job? Unbelievable. And where did Happs name come up from. I dont recall seeing anything about Happ being on the market. Waters and another former 1st round pick for Happ? Unbelievable.

Can hardly wait for tomorrow for your next fantasy team construction. Or is it simply fantasizing?
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I don’t recall seeing anyone state “ unequivically for days on end since forever ago that $120M was the ceiling”.

What I do recall is everyone saying over and over that we have no idea what the payroll would be, but that $120M seemed like a logical guess. Now that they are sitting at $113M without addressing the offense in any way it is logical to assume payroll will be higher than that.

Right now it’s probably logical to conclude they have ~$20M left to replace Ozuna, so payroll is probably around $135M. By the way, that isn’t stating it “unequivically”. They could very well only have a few million left to get a platoon partner Duvall and maybe a bargain BP arm.
 
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zbhargrove said:
I don't think Benintendi will be more than a bit player if that on any MLB in a couple years. He's just not very good. He had a good rookie year and has been awful ever since.
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Awful ever since? What is your definition of awful? Following his rookie year, he was worth 2 WAR in 2017, 4.4 WAR in 2018, 2 WAR in 2019 and horrendous last year along with injuries.

That being said he clearly has regressed since 2018. I would not look to buy low here.
 
clvclv said:
If you want to assume there's going to be an NL DH in 2021, there's absolutely NO WAY the Braves can fill the other holes you mention - PLUS all rotation options have to already be "in-house". If you have to pay a full-time DH, there's nowhere near enough money available to add a veteran SP (of any consequence).

There's simply no way to add a platoon partner for Duvall, a full-time DH, and another pen arm with $25 million - the names AA is going to have to look at are REALLY going to disappoint most people if it comes to that. An upgrade from Riley to Seager would at least mean that other "upgrades" wouldn't need to be nearly as significant.
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Want to guess why I pulled this back up. You have heard about these guys named Morton and Smyly Im sure and the DH, OF and BP are questions still.
 
Enscheff said:
I don’t recall seeing anyone state “ unequivically for days on end since forever ago that $120M was the ceiling”.

What I do recall is everyone saying over and over that we have no idea what the payroll would be, but that $120M seemed like a logical guess. Now that they are sitting at $113M without addressing the offense in any way it is logical to assume payroll will be higher than that.

Right now it’s probably logical to conclude they have ~$20M left to replace Ozuna, so payroll is probably around $135M. By the way, that isn’t stating it “unequivically”. They could very well only have a few million left to get a platoon partner Duvall and maybe a bargain BP arm.
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Gets back to my question of Happ NOW vs. what we hope Waters will be by 2023 (he's not likely going to match Happ's production level as a rookie in 2022). Even if he happens to become Happ down the road, will that be too late? Freeman may no longer be here, Acuna will be making real money, Fried, Soroka, Dansby (if he's still here), and others will be substantially more expensive, etc.. Happ gives you a significant amount of flexibility you won't get from the potential platoon partners for Duvall we've been discussing - he's no Pache in CF, but he's been at least serviceable there, and his Steamer projections measure up pretty well with Pederson's for a whole lot less money. If getting that kind of production for $3.5 million allows you to also re-sign Ozuna, is it worth trading some of that future value that AA has been so stingy with to take a couple of shots? If this team wasn't so close the answer is obvious, but when Alex is spending $11 million on someone like Smyly because he's not convinced Wright is even good enough to be his 4th starter in a playoff series that's pretty telling IMO. He wouldn't be the first #5 pick in the draft not to work out but if adding him to a package that gets you an important piece, he wouldn't be a "waste". Even I'm learning to separate where someone was drafted from their actual value.

No idea what type of reputation Paul and Justin (FG/RG) have, but they mentioned believing in Waters on their Sleeper And Bust podcast the other day. What they didn't go into was just how long they expect it may take him.

The one year win-now deals AA has made (other than Hamels) have worked out incredibly well to this point, but the money available to spend on those will start to dry up as the young core starts making money - unless payroll continues to increase at the same rates each time they get raises.
 
NYCBrave said:
Awful ever since? What is your definition of awful? Following his rookie year, he was worth 2 WAR in 2017, 4.4 WAR in 2018, 2 WAR in 2019 and horrendous last year along with injuries.

That being said he clearly has regressed since 2018. I would not look to buy low here.
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I believe some players don’t give all when you are with a bad team. If we can work a trade giving pieces that we are not planning to play anymore like Sean Newcomb and Touki we should work a deal. Benintendi is just 26 year old. We can utilize him like a platoon player with Duvall and I believe he is a lelf fielder.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
I believe some players don’t give all when you are with a bad team. If we can work a trade giving pieces that we are not planning to play anymore like Sean Newcomb and Touki we should work a deal. Benintendi is just 26 year old. We can utilize him like a platoon player with Duvall and I believe he is a lelf fielder.
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I don't think Benintendi is the kind of guy to half-ass it just because his team sucks.

I'd take a chance on him if the acquisition cost wasn't too great.
 
NYCBrave said:
Awful ever since? What is your definition of awful? Following his rookie year, he was worth 2 WAR in 2017, 4.4 WAR in 2018, 2 WAR in 2019 and horrendous last year along with injuries.

That being said he clearly has regressed since 2018. I would not look to buy low here.
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Okay maybe not awful except for last year... I posted from memory as I didn’t have time to look at his Fangraphs page. I forgot he did so well in 2018... but otherwise a 2 WAR player is basically average. And he just doesn’t look the same. I’m afraid injuries have messed him up.
 
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What about DFA Duval and sign Joc to platoon with Riley in LF and go after Turner? Still might have money for a DH if there is one.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
You are the only one of the two of us whom I recall making any assumptions. Wait, assumptions dont apply to you since you stated unequivically for days on end since forever ago that $120M was the ceiling. In fact I recall you being totally against non tendering Duvall in favor of a Pederson platoon. Now you put Duvall out there without a job? Unbelievable. And where did Happs name come up from. I dont recall seeing anything about Happ being on the market. Waters and another former 1st round pick for Happ? Unbelievable.

Can hardly wait for tomorrow for your next fantasy team construction. Or is it simply fantasizing?
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I have no clue why the Braves would trade Waters straight up for Happ, let alone add more to a deal.
 
Super said:
Maitan's story will never cease to amaze me. it has so many baseball extremes contained within one player's career.
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Maitan reminds me of can't-miss Latin American prospect Jackson Melian who signed a then-record bonus with the Yankees back in the mid-1990s. Melian bounced around the minors for a dozen years in the systems of a half-dozen franchises. He had his moments and there were times when he was doing well in AA that it looked like he may have figured it out and was ready to blossom, but it never came together. Maitan is still young and who knows what will happen, but he hasn't gotten out of the gate very impressively.

For me, the bottom line is that trying to project how high school players will develop physically and skill-wise is difficult. When you are looking at 16-year-olds, it is more difficult by several factors.
 
Here is an idea and please understand it is only for conversation purposes. With the current indecisiveness about roster issues and the pending extension of Freddie and the uncertainty about the 2021 season along with the common knowledge that LFer (which is needed) is usually the easiest position to fill and 1b is generally accepted as the 2nd easiest to fill and money may or may not be an issue. Could AA consider signing a competent part time 1bman and let Freddie DH part time and evaluate the results from both sides before extending Freddie?
 
Hudson2 said:
What about DFA Duval and sign Joc to platoon with Riley in LF and go after Turner? Still might have money for a DH if there is one.
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Think this is the problem we've all had since the beginning - no clue how much money AA has available, and (even worse) still no clue whether there will be a DH on top of that. FanGraphs' projections (Crowdsource) have Turner getting a two year deal for $16 million per and Pederson getting 2 years for $10 million per. Non-tendering Duvall and signing the two of them would presumably fit if there's $20-ish million left, but that would also leave you with no money for a DH. Then you have the question of whether AA wants to spend $10 million on someone who has to have a platoon partner. Would dropping Duvall while signing Brantley to play everyday and Shaw to platoon with Riley at 3B be better? Who knows? That would cost about the same amount of money.

My point is that unless there's quite a bit more than $20 million available there's not enough there to sign the types of names everybody wants in all 3 spots (LF/3B/DH) based on what those players are projected to get unless AA works out a trade for someone cheap to fill a hole. Unfortunately trades for productive players who are also inexpensive are probably going to hurt more this winter than usual since most teams are looking to cut costs everywhere they possibly can.
 
ixiXSolidXixi said:
I don’t think is smart to sign Joc Pederson to platoon. Probably we need to over pay to get him too.
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Agree. I dont know what it would cost to sign Pederson to "platoon" if you expect him to play against RH pitchers who comprise 75% of MLB pitchers and then pay Duvall the $5-7M he will get in arb. I have read Pederson will command as much as $12M per FWIW.
 
Any team signing Joc will be paying him to “platoon”. Not sure why that was in quotes.

He’s probably too expensive as a “platoon” option though.
 
Enscheff said:
Any team signing Joc will be paying him to “platoon”. Not sure why that was in quotes.

He’s probably too expensive as a “platoon” option though.
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Because every reference to Pederson I have seen in this thread refers to him as a platoon partner for Duvall. I actually think there are several teams out there that can find use for him as an everyday player. I may be over estimating your ability to discern others intent by over valuing your analytic acumen.

Let me quess the reasons for your quotation marks tho. Could it be another attempt at sarcasm?
 
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