Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Super]

I assume he'd do both at the same time, hence even more difficulty.

If he has the framework for a TDA trade then he can land Realmuto.

Realmuto is a good hitter at 850 ops type. That's not DH level IMO. Not DH at 20 plus million, certainly. So if you get him, you have to think he's catching 75% of the time (or whatever is possible in the ATL heat).

Rumor was Phillies had an offer on the table around 5/110. But you have to play for the Phillies vs the Braves, Nats and Mets. Not crazy to think that if Realmuto wants to be a playoff player in his career (next 5 years) then he should get off the Phillies. Would 2/50 and a better shot at the playoffs be worth giving up 100 million?

3/75 for Realmuto or 3/60 for Ozuna?

Also who is the team with the 800 plus OPS bat that is being traded for TDA? Blue Jays are the only team I can think of that makes any sense. I think they have young catching coming and a 1 year guy like TDA to help for post season makes sense. They have some OF surplus.

i doubt JTR takes less years and less guaranteed dollars than what's being offered regardless who the team is, tbh. he's a catcher. being a FA again after two years of catching will only hurt his value. would he get ~$22M/year at almost 32 as a guy who probably shouldn't be a DH on a contender, and who might not be able to catch FT, either? idk. i think he has to take the longer deal with more guaranteed.

if the Jays would do a TDA for Teoscar swap, i'd probably be down for that tho.

 

[NYCBrave]

Jared Carrabis via Twitter: There seems to be a lot of optimism from writers in the know that Marcell Ozuna could end up back with the Braves. Some unfinished business there, and Braves fans deserve this one after their pursuit of re-signing Josh Donaldson fell short last winter.

Two rumors in one day!

I'm not sure who Jared Carrabis is, but are we sure that's an actual rumor or is he just referring to this article from MLB.com today where half of their "experts" predicted Ozuna would return to the Braves lol

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-predictions-for-j-t-realmuto-trevor-bauer

 

[UNCBlue012]

I'm not sure who Jared Carrabis is, but are we sure that's an actual rumor or is he just referring to this article from MLB.com today where half of their "experts" predicted Ozuna would return to the Braves lol

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-predictions-for-j-t-realmuto-trevor-bauer

He's been at it for a long time. He runs a popular Red Sox blog and eventually built up legit sources in the league. He's not a top-tier reporter but he has ears around the lead. So who knows if it's accurate but...

 

[JohnAdcox]

For Ozuna, i'm guessing around 3-60/4-75 or so, but who is even in on Ozuna? Regarding Realmuto, other than Philly, who is even in on him? Jays were in on him but i'd guess they're out now after getting Springer.

JTR wants a big deal, and i dont know how comfortable AA is with that. But AA has liked Realmuto for a long time though.

There's a tiny part of me that wants to think that AA is just trolling Philadelphia, trying to get them to spend more of that stupid money than they would if they were the only serious suitor.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

He's been at it for a long time. He runs a popular Red Sox blog and eventually built up legit sources in the league. He's not a top-tier reporter but he has ears around the lead. So who knows if it's accurate but...

He lost a ton of credibility with me as soon as you said he is a blogger.

 

[UNCBlue012]

He lost a ton of credibility with me as soon as you said he is a blogger.

That's fine but not how the industry works anymore. Blogging is notable now. As a PR person and former journalist, many big names started as a blogger.

 

[NYCBrave]

That's fine but not how the industry works anymore. Blogging is notable now. As a PR person and former journalist, many big names started as a blogger.

As someone who started as a blogger in the music space and built up legit contacts, I can confirm this is true

 

[TheBravos]

Heck...why not just get Ozuna AND JTR. That would solve the problem.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Heck...why not just get Ozuna AND JTR. That would solve the problem.

Wouldnt be impossible if AA can move TDA AND Ender

 

[Southcack77]

This only makes sense if the DH is in place and JTR is looking for a high AAV short deal like 2/50.

It could also make sense if JTR wants a short deal and AA is looking to sell high on TDA. His .411 BABIP (career .280) and 25.7% HR/FB rate (career 12.9%) suggests he is in for a significant regression in 2021. Trading him to a team who thinks he’s more than an average MLB bat could be a very savvy move.

Selling high on TDA to sign Realmuto to a reasonable deal would be pretty excellent from a baseball perspective, but it's hard to see that really happening from a financial perspective.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Wouldnt be impossible if AA can move TDA AND Ender

I'd be so erect if that happened

Acuna RF
Freeman 1B
Ozuna LF
JTR C
Albies 2B
Swanson SS
Riley 3B
Pache CF

 

[Enscheff]

i doubt JTR takes less years and less guaranteed dollars than what's being offered regardless who the team is, tbh. he's a catcher. being a FA again after two years of catching will only hurt his value. would he get ~$22M/year at almost 32 as a guy who probably shouldn't be a DH on a contender, and who might not be able to catch FT, either? idk. i think he has to take the longer deal with more guaranteed.

if the Jays would do a TDA for Teoscar swap, i'd probably be down for that tho.

We’ve seen a few instances recently of guys taking short deals with higher AAV over longer deals with more guaranteed.

I don’t think it’s too far fetched that JTR may prefer 2/50 over 5/110 because he thinks he will just get paid again in 2 years. It would be a mistake on his part, but sometimes players prefer to “bet on themselves”.

 

[Heyward]

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

If I was AA my offer would be 5/125 with 2 team options at 20M each year, no buy out. Im basing this offer on the window of contention my team has, look at the up the middle defense, easy offense to predict, and the young rotation and depth.

I know this is not something AA seems comfortable with but things are slow.

 

[Enscheff]

If I was AA my offer would be 5/125 with 2 team options at 20M each year, no buy out. Im basing this offer on the window of contention my team has, look at the up the middle defense, easy offense to predict, and the young rotation and depth.

I know this is not something AA seems comfortable with but things are slow.

So as Braves GM, your brilliant plan would be to completely blow the previous record for a catcher contract out of the water on a catcher in his 30s? And you’d do this when the current high offer is nowhere near that amount?

I’ve never been so glad to have AA as the GM.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

So as Braves GM, your brilliant plan would be to completely blow the previous record for a catcher contract out of the water on a catcher in his 30s? And you’d do this when the current high offer is nowhere near that amount?

I’ve never been so glad to have AA as the GM.

Im sorry. I meant to direct this missive to everyone except you and your expected demeaning. It would help if you read the intent sometimes and forget your constant attempts to exert your supposed intellect.

 

[NYCBrave]

If I was AA my offer would be 5/125 with 2 team options at 20M each year, no buy out. Im basing this offer on the window of contention my team has, look at the up the middle defense, easy offense to predict, and the young rotation and depth.

I know this is not something AA seems comfortable with but things are slow.

Uh, what????

In other news, it's likely important to keep in mind any contract we hand out to a free agent will not be higher than Freeman's annual value. If we're trying to sign him long term, how will it look if we pay a free agent more than him? Something to keep in mind. So these delusions of JTR at 5 for 125 is ridiculous.

 

[Russ2dollas]

We’ve seen a few instances recently of guys taking short deals with higher AAV over longer deals with more guaranteed.

I don’t think it’s too far fetched that JTR may prefer 2/50 over 5/110 because he thinks he will just get paid again in 2 years. It would be a mistake on his part, but sometimes players prefer to “bet on themselves”.

The post below talks about ATL. It is possible that JTR wants to win and sees the Braves as the place to do it. I think he could take some less, but not a ton less.

If the Phillies are offering 5/110. 3/75 with 2 team options at 25 a year, maybe a buy out, isn't horrible. Yes it's less guaranteed money. You may get old, suck or injured and lose the money. But you can also say you got the highest AAV per year and if you are yourself you get 5/125. If you get the fourth year you are only 10 million down. That may all work out with cost of living, playoffs, etc.

If I'm JTR, I'm probably thinking about HOF. I want to play in the post season. I'd be looking at the mets or Braves or out of the East. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would not bet on the phillies long term.

I still don't see AA doing it. If he does, then we need to learn the secret AA man crush list. Clearly Will Smith and JTR on that list.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Uh, what????

In other news, it's likely important to keep in mind any contract we hand out to a free agent will not be higher than Freeman's annual value. If we're trying to sign him long term, how will it look if we pay a free agent more than him? Something to keep in mind. So these delusions of JTR at 5 for 125 is ridiculous.

Another that reads without interpretation. Every single fan post on these and other boards are nothing but pure fantasy and wishful thinking or sometimes a sarcastic expression of an attempt at humor to expose the above.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

The post below talks about ATL. It is possible that JTR wants to win and sees the Braves as the place to do it. I think he could take some less, but not a ton less.

If the Phillies are offering 5/110. 3/75 with 2 team options at 25 a year, maybe a buy out, isn't horrible. Yes it's less guaranteed money. You may get old, suck or injured and lose the money. But you can also say you got the highest AAV per year and if you are yourself you get 5/125. If you get the fourth year you are only 10 million down. That may all work out with cost of living, playoffs, etc.

If I'm JTR, I'm probably thinking about HOF. I want to play in the post season. I'd be looking at the mets or Braves or out of the East. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would not bet on the phillies long term.

I still don't see AA doing it. If he does, then we need to learn the secret AA man crush list. Clearly Will Smith and JTR on that list.

This morning on Hot Stove, Darling and Vasgersian emphasized the fact that no one takes the lesser deal anymore and there is no such thing as a home town discount.