Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

NYCBrave said:
This was also in that MLBTR article, about Braves pursuit of Springer.


George Springer was also reportedly on the Braves’ radar until the very late stages of the outfielder’s free agent tenure, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) writes that the team was looking to act “as a potential safety net” if Springer didn’t find a long-term offer to his satisfaction. Essentially, it would have been this offseason’s version of the Braves’ past one-year deals with Marcell Ozuna and Josh Donaldson, as Atlanta took advantage of thin markets for those two players and were rewarded with outstanding seasons.
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Yeah, this is much different -- and makes much more sense -- than the idea that we were a serious bidder on a long-term contract for Springer.
 
msstate7 said:
Which of the 3 would be your preference?
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I think Cruz will have the best 2021 offensively, but I realize AA probably doesn’t want a pure DH limiting the flexibility of the roster. Cruz literally can’t play anywhere else to give another guy a day at DH, but if he’s sitting there for 1/10 he’d be my guy.

I’d be fine with either 3 on a 1 year deal, and I’d assume AA knew which of them would actually take a 1 year deal before deciding on which one he signed.

Since the beginning my preference based on the cash I think they have available has been Morton (the best 1 year SP available), Cruz (the best RHH available) and a Rosario/Duvall platoon (both capable of playing everyday if Pache needs AAA time) with Riley (legit chance to be a cheap 2+ win option) given some more time at 3b. I think that offense would be at least as good as the 2020 offense. AA got Morton, and I’m still not a big fan of the Smyly deal, but overall I like AA’s offseason so far.
 
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Some quick 2019-2020 stats for the 3 main options.

xwOBA overall
Cruz .403
Ozuna .397
Turner .383

xwOBA vs LHP
Cruz .473
Ozuna .434
Turner .402

FB/LD EV
Cruz 98.9
Ozuna 96.4
Turner 93.1

All 3 are the exact type of hitter the Braves need to pair with Freeman.

Cruz is clearly the best bat, but also the the least valuable defensively, resulting in him being the most likely to take a 1 year deal.

Ozuna carries some defensive value and slots in exactly like he did last year. He’s less likely to take a 1 year deal, but if he’s willing to accept a 1 year deal he could be the best choice.

Turner carries the most defensive value and is the weakest of these 3 impact bats. He’s the 3rd best choice, but still a great option if they don’t want to clog up the roster with Cruz and Ozuna gets a 3+ year deal from someone.
 
I'd take Ozuna on a 3 year deal with an option if he'd be open to that. But guaranteeing 4 years to him doesn't seem like a very wise move.
 
I’m willing to bet 1 of those guys takes a 1-2 year deal. Whichever guy that is fits just fine. The roster is flexible enough to accommodate any of them.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves have the flexibility of adding this bat at LF, 3B and probably DH. The likelihood of getting Turner, Ozuna or Cruz on a 1 year deal is pretty high. Once that impact bat is acquired, the other spots can be filled in with complimentary players.

This has probably been AA’s plan the whole time, and he should be commended for it.
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Still think I’d like for him to find out what kind of prospects it might cost to add Colin Moran to the mix since they’re willing to take guys that are further away.
 
clvclv said:
Villar's probably better-suited to be Dansby's backup than Camargo - not good enough to be an everyday SS anymore, but supposedly can fake it well enough to hold it down for a little while. All three are better offensive utility guys than Johan.

Just looking to improve around the edges as much as possible. The Yankees spent $15 million on their utility guy and the Padres spent $7 million on theirs. LeMahieu's quite a bit better than those three - it's questionable whether Profar is. All should be quite a bit more affordable than those two and would likely be substantial upgrades to our bench.
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Given the gaping holes currently in the line-up, I guess I'm worried about the core more than the fringes.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still trying to understand if the Nats are going to be competitive this year. Doesn't seem like they're looking to spend this off season.
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None of the names - Bell, Hand, Lester, or Schwarber - are massive improvements, but they fill clear holes for the Nationals. These parts are all decent enough so it's hard to think they don't move the needle for a team with a good core. It'll essentially be up to Soto and Turner to continue their success.
 
50PoundHead said:
Given the gaping holes currently in the line-up, I guess I'm worried about the core more than the fringes.
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Yeah, no doubt.

Just looks like the money is there for AA to make whichever moves he chooses (as long as some of these guys want to take Liberty's money, of course), so if the Ozuna/Cruz/Pederson/Rosario/Duvall markets are going to drag on further it would seem like he'd really be able to strengthen the team while he's waiting for clarity from those guys.

Based on the rumors we've seen over the weekend, I'm assuming AA has somewhere in the $30-$40 million range available for adds - if we were "in" on Springer until the end at the $25 million AAV level and Hendriks at the $13 million AAV level, knocking those top-end numbers down to ~ $20 million for a bat and ~ $10 million for a pen arm for lesser players seems like a "fair" guess.

Profar and Kike Hernandez probably established the high-end of the utility guy market at $7 million AAV, so I think it would make sense to offer $5 million to all 3 of Villar, Miller, and La Stella and $5 million to Rosenthal, Melancon, Soria, Colome, Jeffress, and Greene and tell them whichever hitter and Pitcher accepts first has a job. That would tie up everything other than LF/DH while EVERYBODY waits on the DH decision, and would keep him from having to scramble with those spots a week before camp starts.

If the DH becomes an option and Ozuna continues to push for 4 or more years and $18 million or more, give Cruz the second year he's looking for at $12-$14 million and sign Rosario to play LF. Sure the second year for Cruz is risky, but is it that much more risky than giving Ozuna 4 years? If there's no DH, $20 million should be more than enough to land a Pederson/Rosario/Mazara and Duvall platoon.
 
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Tomahawk Take (I know, I know) pointed out that Trey Mancini was asked by the Orioles to defer some of his arbitration salary, and speculated that he might be available in a trade. Any thoughts?
 
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