Looking at the NL East 2019.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think it's too hard to say before FA this offseason. There are major players such as Machado and Harper that could change the landscape for a number of teams. I mean, in theory, Philly could sign both Machado AND Harper. Probably not, but possible.

 

[Heyward]

I think it's too hard to say before FA this offseason. There are major players such as Machado and Harper that could change the landscape for a number of teams. I mean, in theory, Philly could sign both Machado AND Harper. Probably not, but possible.

Technically they could, but Philly would still need alot more than that, more likely they miss on both and overpay for lesser talent.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I think it's too hard to say before FA this offseason. There are major players such as Machado and Harper that could change the landscape for a number of teams. I mean, in theory, Philly could sign both Machado AND Harper. Probably not, but possible.

Does that make them contenders. 80 million comittted to 2 players with a lot of other holes to fill. Sure it makes the lineup look scary. But that team has a lot of flaws that got exposed as the season carried on.

I guess you keep Franco and Kingery. Try to dump Santana to get hoskin back at first. Then roll with Crawford/ordudbal/harper/Quinn outfield. Need to find a back up catcher and hope your pitching shapes up. But honestly I don’t see philly as a serious threat for now.

 

[nsacpi]

I would put the gnats and Mets ahead of the phillies...even even in a scenario where Harper goes from the gnats to the phillies

 

[Heyward]

Does that make them contenders. 80 million comittted to 2 players with a lot of other holes to fill. Sure it makes the lineup look scary. But that team has a lot of flaws that got exposed as the season carried on.

I guess you keep Franco and Kingery. Try to dump Santana to get hoskin back at first. Then roll with Crawford/ordudbal/harper/Quinn outfield. Need to find a back up catcher and hope your pitching shapes up. But honestly I don’t see philly as a serious threat for now.

Philly has alot of guys in arbitration, so while they may have alot of money to spend, it dries up quickly.

Nola, Velasquez, Neris, Franco, Morgan, Altherr, Cesar Hernandez are just a few who hit arb, so that will cost a decent chunk of money.

Even in the slim, slim chance they landed Machado and Harper, i doubt both go there with better market/clubs like NYY, LAD, CHC to name a few going after both. Their biggest concern is defense, Hoskins cannot keep playing in the outfield, gives up too many runs. Phillies defense is their biggest concern, for someone who is huge into analytics like Kapler is, it's amazing he doesnt value a huge analytic like defense.

 

[thewupk]

Philly has alot of guys in arbitration, so while they may have alot of money to spend, it dries up quickly.

Nola, Velasquez, Neris, Franco, Morgan, Altherr, Cesar Hernandez are just a few who hit arb, so that will cost a decent chunk of money.

Even in the slim, slim chance they landed Machado and Harper, i doubt both go there with better market/clubs like NYY, LAD, CHC to name a few going after both. Their biggest concern is defense, Hoskins cannot keep playing in the outfield, gives up too many runs. Phillies defense is their biggest concern, for someone who is huge into analytics like Kapler is, it's amazing he doesnt value a huge analytic like defense.

Maybe kapler is from the coppy school of analytics.

 

[nsacpi]

Maybe kapler is from the coppy school of analytics.

Being the best at analytics could cause a team to value defense less. There is no a priori that says being into analytics = being into defense. In fact some of the recent trends in the game are working to reduce the importance of defense. Maybe Kapler and the Phillies are in the vanguard. The new market inefficiency might be the lumbering big boppers.

 

[50PoundHead]

Maybe kapler is from the coppy school of analytics.

He's clearly from the six-year-old trying to drive an 18-wheeler school.

 

[Southcack77]

Being the best at analytics could cause a team to value defense less. There is no a priori that says being into analytics = being into defense. In fact some of the recent trends in the game are working to reduce the importance of defense. Maybe Kapler and the Phillies are in the vanguard. The new market inefficiency might be the lumbering big boppers.

Yes, defensive positioning was supposed to be the new big thing.

they were going to make individual players better defensively by positioning them where the ball was going to be hit.

.......

But the Phillies plan probably isn't corner the market on bad fielding sluggers any more than Atlanta's plan was ride scrap heap relief pitching to the division title.

I think it might have just been what happened to be out there available for them.

......

I am old enough to remember being scolded for suggesting that Kapler's bullpen and defensive approach might not be sustainable though. I guess Kapler isn't carrying the analytics flag anymore.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

The Nats and Phillies will both be tough to beat next season. Both teams have very good teams now, with a good core, and a lot of money coming off the books. Even if Washington doesn't re-sign Harper, that's a lot of money to reallocate elsewhere.

Good teams don’t struggle to be .500 in the regular season. The division is sewer water trash. Not the Braves fault or problem.

 

[nsacpi]

run differential: gnats +79, phillies -16

That tells me which team goes into the off-season with a better team for 2019. Move Harper from the gnats to the phillies and I still prefer the gnats in 2019.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Good teams don’t struggle to be .500 in the regular season. The division is sewer water trash. Not the Braves fault or problem.

Don't agree....we benefited from surprising performances from guys like Camargo, Markakis, Newcomb and the emergence of Acuna....the Phillies could easily add a piece or two and get similar over production from their veterans/young guys....the gnats were devastated by injuries and the underperformance of Harper....Any time you have a rotation with Sherzer and Stras, then a young core of Robles, Soto, Turner, you are not trash...either of those teams could easily beat us next season.

 

[Enscheff]

Yes, defensive positioning was supposed to be the new big thing.

they were going to make individual players better defensively by positioning them where the ball was going to be hit.

.......

But the Phillies plan probably isn't corner the market on bad fielding sluggers any more than Atlanta's plan was ride scrap heap relief pitching to the division title.

I think it might have just been what happened to be out there available for them.

......

I am old enough to remember being scolded for suggesting that Kapler's bullpen and defensive approach might not be sustainable though. I guess Kapler isn't carrying the analytics flag anymore.

The Phillies intentionally gave Santana 3/60 early in the off season and moved Hoskins to the OF. That wasn't "just what happened", as if Santana fell into their laps unexpectedly. They made the conscious decision to go after Santana and dramatically downgrade the OF defense by sticking Hoskins out there. It was 100% intentional.

That decision is a big reason they were 29th of all MLB teams in OF Def at -42.2 (the Braves were 12th at -8.7). That is over 3 games lost to the Braves just by having poor OF defense. Hoskins cost them almost 2 wins due to his OF defense by himself (worst of all MLB OFers), and that is after the Def stat has recently been altered to remove the wild outliers we see with DRS.

The Phils have undoubtedly switched to following analytics, but the guys they have in charge of analyzing data are not good...at all.

 

[Heyward]

Don't agree....we benefited from surprising performances from guys like Camargo, Markakis, Newcomb and the emergence of Acuna....the Phillies could easily add a piece or two and get similar over production from their veterans/young guys....the gnats were devastated by injuries and the underperformance of Harper....Any time you have a rotation with Sherzer and Stras, then a young core of Robles, Soto, Turner, you are not trash...either of those teams could easily beat us next season.

While true, our projected pen to start next year is at least Sobotka, Winkler, O'Day, Viz, Biddle, Venters, and Minter. That's miles better than what we started last year with. Throw in possibly Kimbrel, and that's a pretty exciting bullpen. Our bullpen early on cost us a ton of games.

I dont use analytics or advanced stats much, but RD is huge for me in teams. Phillies having a negative RD and the Nats having a top 5 RD in the NL yet missing the playoffs shows how unlucky they were.

Robles hasnt shown near enough to replace Harper, at all. And Philly could not sign either of Machado or Harper, and then what do they do? Their farm isnt as strong to land elite guys in trades. And money cant buy you an entire team.

Nats and even the Mets if healthy have better overall teams than Philly does.

Our main overall needs are starting C, one starting outfielder, 1 or 2 bench bats, and maybe one BP arm with tons of money/trade assets.

Other than Nola and Hoskins, what does Philly have? Also, the Phillies defense is ****ing terrible, one big reason the Braves won the East is defense. I dont think the Braves are a lock to win it, but we're without a doubt the favorites for the division next year.

 

[nsacpi]

Kingery and Crawford not developing as hoped clouds things for the phillies a bit

 

[NYCBrave]

Maybe kapler is from the coppy school of analytics.

The thing about Kapler is, the guy is a freaking robot. He doesn't appear to be a player's manager at all. Whereas someone like Snit obviously has that side of things down, what I've observed from Kapler shows the opposite.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Being the best at analytics could cause a team to value defense less. There is no a priori that says being into analytics = being into defense. In fact some of the recent trends in the game are working to reduce the importance of defense. Maybe Kapler and the Phillies are in the vanguard. The new market inefficiency might be the lumbering big boppers.

Yeah I think this could be the case. The reason it didn't work out great for the Phillies is because they sacrificed a ton of defense for very little offense. The only guy that truly scares me in that lineup is Hoskins. But if you could put together a team of Khris Davis type players, it could be interesting.

 

[Carp]

I'm the most worried about the Phillies and the Mets. I think the Nationals are going to take a significant step back with some aging players and no Harper. Although the Soto, Turner, Robles trio could be pretty darn good. Miami is going to be trash again.

The Phillies scare me because of all the money they have. I think they are going to get either Machado or Harper. They need to move Santana for sure to put Hoskins at 1st. They'll probably try to grab another good offensive piece on top of Harper/Machado that can play decent defense. They will still have enough left over to shore up the rotation and bullpen with big signings as well. I could see them going after guys like Kimbrel and Corbin. They are going to be much better next year and we need to have a solid offseason in order to stay ahead of them.

The Mets are scary because their core is so strong when its healthy. That rotation has an insane amount of upside. Its just a matter of keeping them healthy and productive. If that happens, they need to improve their offense and bullpen a good bit, but I think they are probably capable of that. They need to go out and get a good bat or two plus a couple of high leverage bullpen arms.

With the right additions, I still think we will enter next year as the favorites in the division, but we have got to do enough to keep pace.

Yankees and Dodgers are more likely to sign Machado and Harper than Philly. It's the whole reason they cleared payroll recently. I'm betting Philly signs 1 each of Grandal/Ramos and LeMahieu/Lowrie. They need OF help too, so Cutch, Pollock, Jones, Neck, and Bradley are options. Kimbrell might be high on their list but Boston undoubtedly wants to keep him as well. Given their needs, I doubt Kimbrell is high on their list.

 

[jpx7]

Kimbrel*

 

[Super]

Will be interesting to see if the Braves continue to benefit from being in the worst division in the league and second worst overall. Probably six teams from the AL would have won this division this year.

the AL has a bunch of bum, bottom-feeder teams. the AL central and west aren't good at all.