50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's early for both of these guys, but I can remember in April when the Phillies were being hailed as prescient for signing Kingery to a long-term deal to eat up his arbitration years.
Looking at the NL East 2019.
- Thread starter Heyward
- Start date
It's early for both of these guys, but I can remember in April when the Phillies were being hailed as prescient for signing Kingery to a long-term deal to eat up his arbitration years.
he clearly needed more work in the minors despite his good lines there last season. he was hyper-aggressive and struck out a bit too much. not only did they sign him, therefore basically eliminating the possibility of sending him back down, they didn't play him every day and moved him all over the place when they did. idk how strong the data is behind it, but it always seemed that when you have a young player who needs more polish, playing him 1. every day and 2. in a familiar spot is helpful. they did neither of these things.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Yea, I thought it was strange also how they didn't even play him every day and basically jerked him around all season.
the phillies have a ton of work to do. slim chance their rotation is as healthy next year, and there's very little depth at the moment. they can't sign only one of machado/harper and be contenders, IMO. they have very little depth on the 40-man or in the minors overall on offense as well.
their IF is a bit of a mess with hernandez, kingery, crawford, franco, hoskins and santana. where does everyone play? franco isn't good at all. kingery has proven nothing, same for crawford. santana cannot play anywhere but 1B, same for hoskins (and likely same for franco). kingery's natural position is 2B, but hernandez is currently a much better player. it's usually not a bad problem to have too much infield depth, but when only a couple of the players are actually good, it's a huge problem. odubel took a huge step back defensively this year, but could rebound. i don't believe they have catcher figured out, either. alfaro is bound to regress on offense, right? in 136 career games, he's sporting a BABIP over .400 with tons of Ks and no walks. granted, he's still young.
everyone is saying "they need to dump santana." sure, but where? his contract looks pretty bad right now. he can pretty much only be a DH, and would be a light hitting one if this season is any indication. moving him will not be easy without eating all of the money IMO.
it will be very interesting to see what they do; they have quite the mess to clean up, IMO. they're going to have a lot of money, but so are other teams like the yankees and dodgers, who i believe are much better teams to go to. i almost hope they pay harper an extreme amount as he likely won't be worth it, and quickly. they legitimately will need two OFers (if they move odubel to a corner, as they should and did to end the year) unless they want to roll with quinn next year (risky, and doesn't lend to being a contender). they need a legit 3B, unless they want to roll with kingery or crawford. where do kingery/crawford play if they sign machado for 3B or SS?
very interested to see what they try to do.
their IF is a bit of a mess with hernandez, kingery, crawford, franco, hoskins and santana. where does everyone play? franco isn't good at all. kingery has proven nothing, same for crawford. santana cannot play anywhere but 1B, same for hoskins (and likely same for franco). kingery's natural position is 2B, but hernandez is currently a much better player. it's usually not a bad problem to have too much infield depth, but when only a couple of the players are actually good, it's a huge problem. odubel took a huge step back defensively this year, but could rebound. i don't believe they have catcher figured out, either. alfaro is bound to regress on offense, right? in 136 career games, he's sporting a BABIP over .400 with tons of Ks and no walks. granted, he's still young.
everyone is saying "they need to dump santana." sure, but where? his contract looks pretty bad right now. he can pretty much only be a DH, and would be a light hitting one if this season is any indication. moving him will not be easy without eating all of the money IMO.
it will be very interesting to see what they do; they have quite the mess to clean up, IMO. they're going to have a lot of money, but so are other teams like the yankees and dodgers, who i believe are much better teams to go to. i almost hope they pay harper an extreme amount as he likely won't be worth it, and quickly. they legitimately will need two OFers (if they move odubel to a corner, as they should and did to end the year) unless they want to roll with quinn next year (risky, and doesn't lend to being a contender). they need a legit 3B, unless they want to roll with kingery or crawford. where do kingery/crawford play if they sign machado for 3B or SS?
very interested to see what they try to do.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Where would a Lemathieu or Lowrie play?
Philly has a bit of a logjam in the infield. Hoskins, Santana, Hernandez, Kingery, Crawford, Franco to name a few. That's 6 guys for 4 spots right there. And Bohm if he's legit should be up in a year or so.
Outfield isnt quite as jammed with Quinn, Herrera, Williams, Altherr.
I could see Philly in on some bullpen guys but not Kimbrel even though they could throw him any offer he wants.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I thought the Phillies offseason was pretty bad. Other than the Padres, I'm not sure anyone made more head scratching moves.
I suppose there is some irony in Santana technically being a defensive upgrade at 1B. I guess they thought they could make Hoskins a neutral LF. I don't know.
They probably should not have believed they were ready to contend this year, but those moves made it seem like they thought they could. Unless it was always a two part free agency plan, but I truly never understood why they went and paid for Santana.
Still, if they sign a defensive shortstop, move one of their 1B in trade, get Kingery to start hitting like he should hit, and sign a decent LF -- all very doable -- they should be able to improve their team considerably.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Makes one wonder if the Phillies should consider trading Hoskins.
If not, Bour and Franco might be players that some teams would be interested in their remaining years of control. Maikel Franco might draw some post hype interest as well. Perhaps someone might have ideas of getting him off 3B and seeing if the bat still has a breakout in it.
they got Bour for nothing. Franco has shown very little. he's still young, but i'm not sure what kind of upside is there anymore. he's already a 1B at best, and he doesn't have the bat for it.
trading hoskins..the fans would murder the FO. they overrate him a lot, so they love him.
Tapate50
Well-known member
They committed to a line signing Santana. It was a head scratcher, because as constructed they didn't need a bat only player for 1b. They had one. Much easier to produce a league average OF in FA for less money.
He's there for the duration of that deal IMO. Putting him at 3b was doubling down on bad D, and a terrible move out of desperation.
Contrary to AA they took big bold steps to commit to that construction. I like that we did just about the exact opposite. We could go any number of ways this offseason and still improve the club.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I sort of think Franco might have a breakout left in him. Thought maybe we were seeing it for awhile this year, but not so much.
You're right though about Bour not having much value based on his market at trade deadline.
Southcack77
Well-known member
to be fair, Santana was not a bat only 1B. He was considered to be a good fielder having saved 10 runs in 2017.
But it made no sense to me to move their 1B only slugger into LF just to accommodate Santana's bat, IMO, which is what I guess they did.
......
I wonder what they think about JP Crawford? is that who they are pencilling in at SS?
......
If the Phillies are going to carry a 170 million dollar payroll again, then maybe something like
Machado, Hechavarria, Andrew McCutcheon, and a reserve catcher to pair with Alfaro might make sense.
Then consider moving maybe Hernandez and Santana to allow Hoskins to play 1B and Kingery to play 2B.
Move or non-tender Bour and/or Franco.
I'm not sure I've kept them under 170 million, but maybe I have.
Franco would have to improve significantly with the bat, because he's pretty much a 1B-only now. he has a very odd profile. never struck out of walked a lot. has decent power. but unless he becomes a 35+ homer monster, i don't really see upside there.
again, i have no clue what they do with kingery and crawford. they absolutely have to see what each of them have got. kingery should still end up solid, but can we call him a future star anymore? same with crawford, should be good defensively, but the bat seems awfully light. i think their roster is kind of a mess.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I don't think we have much reason to downgrade Kingery yet.
there is certainly some. the same way we had to downgrade swanson after last season. but at least swanson is a stud defensive SS. kingery is not. kingery has been even worse offensively than swanson was last year. they're about the same age, so swanson's wildly bad season came a year younger.
Indians Fan
3:33 Take a guess on the contract for Michael Brantley this offseason and do the Indians pursue?
Steve Adams
3:35 He's such a hard one to peg given his injury history and the way the market has devalued corner outfielders. Brantley is a considerably better player than Jay Bruce, though, so I have a hard time seeing him take less than that. Could be two years at a huge annual value or something like Jay Bruce-plus (he got 3/39). If he had better health, I'd take four years on him. As it is, I'm saying something like 2/36 or 3/45, but this is honestly the first real thought I've put into it.
If the Braves finances dictate they can't shop in the Harper/Pollock aisle, I could see Brantley as the 2019 version of Markakis.
3:33 Take a guess on the contract for Michael Brantley this offseason and do the Indians pursue?
Steve Adams
3:35 He's such a hard one to peg given his injury history and the way the market has devalued corner outfielders. Brantley is a considerably better player than Jay Bruce, though, so I have a hard time seeing him take less than that. Could be two years at a huge annual value or something like Jay Bruce-plus (he got 3/39). If he had better health, I'd take four years on him. As it is, I'm saying something like 2/36 or 3/45, but this is honestly the first real thought I've put into it.
If the Braves finances dictate they can't shop in the Harper/Pollock aisle, I could see Brantley as the 2019 version of Markakis.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I seriously doubt that Philly trades Hoskins. They are going to do everything they can to move Santana and move Hoskins to 1st. Or at least they should. Whatever they do, I see them having a tremendous amount of turnover this year. Lots of trades to move guys out and lots of signings to move guys in.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I could see them trying to keep some of the better bats as bench options. If they are able to replace some of those positions with valuable players, they may reason that they can get good value out of putting a guy like Franco or Bour on the bench as a big bat first option.