Looking towards 2025

I love Fried but the Dodgers are gonna go hard after him with all their rotation issues. I’d see if a deal for Crochet could be made bc we need another lefty in the rotation next year. Iglesias depending on how next year goes could probably be extended for 2 years but i’m always leery of relievers. If we have Riley and Acuna full time then Arcia is fine batting 9th. I’d rather have Adames of course but AA may not play in those waters with the luxury tax.
 
seanyates said:
I expect to see one of Gray, Gausman, or Stroman acquired this offseason.
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As Scheff has said, what moves made will depend on what payroll is gonna be. If we can go over the tax, then anythings possible. If we wanna reset the tax penalties, then might have to shed some salary and make other moves.
 
I actually think the Giants are more likely. I cant put it past the Dodgers but I think they sign Flaherty and Kershaw comes back. The Giants always seem like a team that sees red flags in free agents and runs at it like a bull. I truly think free agency is more about going back to the West Coast than money. I know he grew up a Dodgers fan but I have a hard time seeing it if they sign Flaherty and Kershaw comes back. Gavin Stone would already be their 6th starter going into the year. so adding Fried to that would be insane depth.

With Crochet I have a very big suspicion that we almost trade for him at the deadline and that the same deal might be on the table for the offseason. I find it very strange that AJSS and Waldrep never got another shot in Atlanta with our need to rest SP extra days. Imagine before the season I told you the Braves chose to start Grant Holmes over AJSS And Waldrep. I find it hard to believe the Braves will trade Murphy and TDA probably has several years left. CHW had horrific production from catcher so Baldwin would be a prospect they think can step right in as a starter. AJSS and Waldrep are still highly viewed prospects despite not lighting the world on fire their first time around. CHW could see them stepping right into their starting rotation. I dont know that Nacho has a future with Atlanta so I could see him included easily. Also starts for CHW at 2B right away. The White Sox are reportedly cutting payroll even more and there are some untradeable contracts like Benintindi. Maybe we take on his contract to lessen the cost. He MIGHT provide some value as a LF LH Platoon bat. He might be a third DH though I think he just wasnt trying because why try hard on defense when your on the White Sox and you got a guaranteed contract. Everyone gets better when they leave the White Sox. He actually had a pretty good second half this year. Worst case we can just release him. Point is to get Crochet who makes a bargain bin salary. I wonder if the Braves kept AJSS and Waldrep down so they wouldnt risk injury since MLB pitching is more stressfull than MILB pitching and it prevents them from losing value hoping they can still work a deal out for Crochet. I think his statement of shutting down if no extension killed the deal because part of the reason to aquire such a good but cheap SP would be to get under the luxury tax cap. I think if they trade him this offseason they can sign an "extension" that begins after his 2025 arb contract would not effect the luxury tax until that extension begins. I think with the breakout of Schwellenbach they might feel more inclined to trade some of the other young pitcher prospects now that we got one young stud who I dont think will hit arbitration until 2028.
 
seanyates said:
I expect to see one of Gray, Gausman, or Stroman acquired this offseason.
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Lots of Cardinals rumors that Gray will be traded. They had a change in GM and supposedly want to hit the reset button. Gray on a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd is a good value imo. Wouldnt mind if we got in on that.
 
The luxury number for 2025 is already $197 with no Morton, Ozuna, TDA, Bummer, Kelenic or Laureano counted. Just picking up the 3 options takes up most of the funds under $230.
 
It probably depends on how far the Braves can go in the playoffs. If we can get to the 2nd round then we have home games that will boost sales. Do we get any money from the first round since all 3 games are in SD? Seems unfair if thats the case.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I actually think the Giants are more likely. I cant put it past the Dodgers but I think they sign Flaherty and Kershaw comes back. The Giants always seem like a team that sees red flags in free agents and runs at it like a bull. I truly think free agency is more about going back to the West Coast than money. I know he grew up a Dodgers fan but I have a hard time seeing it if they sign Flaherty and Kershaw comes back. Gavin Stone would already be their 6th starter going into the year. so adding Fried to that would be insane depth.

With Crochet I have a very big suspicion that we almost trade for him at the deadline and that the same deal might be on the table for the offseason. I find it very strange that AJSS and Waldrep never got another shot in Atlanta with our need to rest SP extra days. Imagine before the season I told you the Braves chose to start Grant Holmes over AJSS And Waldrep. I find it hard to believe the Braves will trade Murphy and TDA probably has several years left. CHW had horrific production from catcher so Baldwin would be a prospect they think can step right in as a starter. AJSS and Waldrep are still highly viewed prospects despite not lighting the world on fire their first time around. CHW could see them stepping right into their starting rotation. I dont know that Nacho has a future with Atlanta so I could see him included easily. Also starts for CHW at 2B right away. The White Sox are reportedly cutting payroll even more and there are some untradeable contracts like Benintindi. Maybe we take on his contract to lessen the cost. He MIGHT provide some value as a LF LH Platoon bat. He might be a third DH though I think he just wasnt trying because why try hard on defense when your on the White Sox and you got a guaranteed contract. Everyone gets better when they leave the White Sox. He actually had a pretty good second half this year. Worst case we can just release him. Point is to get Crochet who makes a bargain bin salary. I wonder if the Braves kept AJSS and Waldrep down so they wouldnt risk injury since MLB pitching is more stressfull than MILB pitching and it prevents them from losing value hoping they can still work a deal out for Crochet. I think his statement of shutting down if no extension killed the deal because part of the reason to aquire such a good but cheap SP would be to get under the luxury tax cap. I think if they trade him this offseason they can sign an "extension" that begins after his 2025 arb contract would not effect the luxury tax until that extension begins. I think with the breakout of Schwellenbach they might feel more inclined to trade some of the other young pitcher prospects now that we got one young stud who I dont think will hit arbitration until 2028.
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The Braves will no doubt want that 2nd left in the rotation net year and Crochet fits that bill and he’s young. I would bet money that Sale doesn’t repeat this season (i hope he does) and Strider is coming back from surgery so we need some reliable arms in that rotation. Gonna be interesting this offseason for sure for AA.
 
Enscheff said:
$25M per year might be hard to fit if they are trying to get the payroll down to $230M.
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Ideally you swap Soler in such a trade for Gray. Cards would save 33 million in that trade. Honestly it makes a lot of sense for both teams. Since the Cards front loaded Gray's contract, there is no way they are moving him without eating half the contract.

We need to find a SS too. I wonder if Correa might be available. Twins have a several holes and freeing up his money would allow them to help those holes. They have several options that could replace Correa if they traded him.

JP Crawford is another guy that could be on the move. Seattle also has a high profile SS prospect in Cole Young that is about ready to take over.

DBacks could also look to move Geraldo Perdomo with Lawler ready to take over.

I don't know who else makes sense, but I do know we can't go into 2025 with Arcia as our starting SS.
 
Carp said:
Ideally you swap Soler in such a trade for Gray. Cards would save 33 million in that trade. Honestly it makes a lot of sense for both teams. Since the Cards front loaded Gray's contract, there is no way they are moving him without eating half the contract.

We need to find a SS too. I wonder if Correa might be available. Twins have a several holes and freeing up his money would allow them to help those holes. They have several options that could replace Correa if they traded him.

JP Crawford is another guy that could be on the move. Seattle also has a high profile SS prospect in Cole Young that is about ready to take over.

DBacks could also look to move Geraldo Perdomo with Lawler ready to take over.

I don't know who else makes sense, but I do know we can't go into 2025 with Arcia as our starting SS.
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Arcia has been pretty terrible offensively. He’s good on defense but thats usually the first thing to go. He could take over as the utility infielder at his price.
 
Carp said:
Ideally you swap Soler in such a trade for Gray. Cards would save 33 million in that trade. Honestly it makes a lot of sense for both teams. Since the Cards front loaded Gray's contract, there is no way they are moving him without eating half the contract.

We need to find a SS too. I wonder if Correa might be available. Twins have a several holes and freeing up his money would allow them to help those holes. They have several options that could replace Correa if they traded him.

JP Crawford is another guy that could be on the move. Seattle also has a high profile SS prospect in Cole Young that is about ready to take over.

DBacks could also look to move Geraldo Perdomo with Lawler ready to take over.

I don't know who else makes sense, but I do know we can't go into 2025 with Arcia as our starting SS.
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Arcia is fine in the 9 spot but obviously you can upgrade over him. Just gonna depend how much money AA has at this disposal this offseason.
 
seanyates said:
Is there actual reporting that the Braves are looking to reduce payroll? Perhaps I've missed it.
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Nope. Pure conjecture based on what I can tell. But it is something top spenders do from time to time, so it’s at least a reasonable thing to consider.

Needless to say we all hope the Braves run with a $280M payroll next year and a lot of these concerns go away.
 
Enscheff said:
Nope. Pure conjecture based on what I can tell. But it is something top spenders do from time to time, so it’s at least a reasonable thing to consider.

Needless to say we all hope the Braves run with a $280M payroll next year and a lot of these concerns go away.
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On an unrelated note, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the Braves current contention window and how far it can extend. At one point it was thought that the end of the Acuna contract would mark the end of the window, but seemingly with the way the team is still developing talent from the minors each year, is there hope for beyond that?
 
NYCBrave said:
On an unrelated note, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the Braves current contention window and how far it can extend. At one point it was thought that the end of the Acuna contract would mark the end of the window, but seemingly with the way the team is still developing talent from the minors each year, is there hope for beyond that?
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If we're hitting on guys like Schwelly, then it can go beyond that. Hitting on a catcher like Baldwin would extend it, as would some of those international guys hitting in a few years.
 
A team with a Top 5 payroll and an elite GM will always have a chance to be competitive. If Baldwin becomes a 4+ win catcher, and other prospects hit, that's how teams remain competitive.

However...

After Acuna leaves in 2028, the Braves will still be paying an aging Olson and Riley $44M in 2029. Making the completely arbitrary assumption that payroll will go up $5M per year, those 2 aging corner infielders will be taking up ~15% of the payroll and will most likely be replacement level or worse by that time...especially Olson.

However...

AA pulled Sale and Lopez out of his hat. AA always seems to be able to find solutions at the deadline. AA very rarely hands out risky long term contracts. The system always seems to produce a Strider or Harris or Schwellenbach (soon Baldwin) every year almost out of thin air. Having an elite GM with a Top 5 payroll is a recipe for extended success, so I see very little chance the Braves aren't contenders even in their "down" years".

Teams don't need a 9 win superstar like Acuna to be WS contenders when the rest of the roster is very good.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Right. The Braves window of being an elite team is entirely dependent on Acuña’s knees at this point.
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Thats what i was fixing to say. I’d be scared to extend him to be honest bc having both knees go before you are 27 years old is rough. He will probably end up at DH when he’s 30.
 
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