Looking towards 2025

Drake Baldwin has made the catching spot something to watch this offseason. He is basically in finishing school right now in the AFL. TDA is that veteran leader that will be kept. That leaves Murphy and what they will do with him. If they want to save money then this is where it will happen. Baldwin is almost ready. He could use a couple of months in the minors probably but for the most part he’s ready. So what do you do with him? Bring him up and let him study with TDA or sit in the minors for the year?
 
Baldwin needs to start in AAA until he is needed. Let TDA finish out his contract next year, let him walk, then go with Murphy/Baldwin in 2026.

TDA and Murphy have each missed time in each of the last 2 seasons to due to injury. That trend will likely happen again in 2025 due to the nature of the catching position. So Baldwin should get plenty of opportunities to make his mark in Atlanta in 2025.
 
Carp said:
So by that logic, Kelenic isn't someone we would be willing to part with in a trade because he is young and cheap?

It's a dumb fallacy. Perdomo being a 2-3 WAR SS is the main reason why AZ might have an issue trading him, and the main reason why we should be interested. Because a 2-3 WAR SS is a significant upgrade to Arcia, who was a 1.6 bWAR SS at his very best during his time in Atlanta. And as stated, AZ has a top 10 overall SS prospect who is ready to take over. I have no idea if attaching him to Montgomery as an attempt to get rid of Montgomery would be something they would entertain. But there is plenty of logic behind them using Perdomo in a trade to improve their team when they have a top SS ready to take over and plenty of holes to fill, without a ton of financial flexibility.

Also, Montgomery has only 1 season remaining on his contract. Not exactly like we are taking a huge gamble.
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Oh my ****ing god, you’re dense.

And for the record, I didn’t know about their SS prospect. Which is why asked the question in the first place. I genuinely didn’t know.
 
Walker Buehler might make sense on a 1 year prove it deal. He wouldn’t be any kind of answer though.

Shane Bieber could make sense depending on what he’s wanting. He won’t be back til June, but a backloaded 2-3 year deal might work. I think he works a deal with Cleveland first if he goes that route.

Eovaldi will probably be a free agent and he might be looking for the 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd AA would feel comfortable with.
 
Carp said:
Agreed. Gray isn't someone that will command much in return unless the Cards eat a lot of the contract. Especially in a free agent market with lots of quality pitching options. If you're a team that is gonna spend 30 million per year on a starting pitcher, why would you trade top prospects for Gray when you could simply sign one of the top guys in free agency? Yes, the back half of those deal likely won't be good, but Fried and Burnes are far likelier to be impact starting pitchers over the next 2 years than Gray is.

Certainly we would have to give up something for Gray, but it wouldn't be anyone worth concerning yourself over.
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No team in their right mind is taking on all $60 million of what is owed Gray. That means things will be put on a sliding scale and the team that matches prospects to the Cardinals in return for St. Louis continuing to carry some of Gray's contract obligations will end up getting Gray.

The Gray contract was one of the oddest (and worst) from last off-season. One, it was too big. Two, it was back-loaded. Cardinals should have flipped the salaries somewhat and paid more upfront in preparation for what lies ahead for them. I saw the move as the real roll of the dice for a team that didn't look like a contender (of course, one has to take into account that division is crap).

Cardinals are in a very odd position as a team. They signed a lot of guys to big deals that haven't turned out that well and most of their purported best prospects have either stalled out in the major leagues or have had a difficult time making the jump from the minors to the majors. I have no idea what they will do, but they've never been a white-flag franchise. Difficult to know what the Mozeliak to Bloom transition will look like and what that means for this off-season.
 
If we have to get a SP I think my favorite option right now is lefty Matt Boyd. Had TJ surgery in June 2023. Was pretty good when he came back this year. Projected for a 1 year 10 million contract. I think that will be higher but he is probably looking for a 1 year deal then get a long term deal after a good year. Right up our alley imo.
 
Evoldi has averaged 151IP the last 4 years while averaging a 2,95 WAR and a 3.76 ERA.

Supposedly he’s learned more how to pitch than throw which has been effective and kept him healthy.

He’s also pitched well in the postseason

We’re essentially looking for a Charlie Morton replacement and Eovaldi seems like a logical fit.
 
You guys keep pointing out excellent SP options. I really hope this is the year AA waits for a bargain to fall in his lap in late January.
 
Enscheff said:
You guys keep pointing out excellent SP options. I really hope this is the year AA waits for a bargain to fall in his lap in late January.
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AA's MO has always been to attack early in FA, and I think that is what we will see.

But I do think Crochet is someone that AA will continue to have interest in if he's looking to find a true impact SP, and not just a Morton replacement.
 
Do we see a Schwellenbach extension this year?

Strider’s contract for a reference was…

1M in the first 2 years which isn’t much more than pre-arb salaries

4M in the 3rd year of the contract, what would’ve been the 1st year of arbitration.

20M and 22M the next 2 years/last 2 years of would be arbitration

$22M to buy out 1 FA year

And then a Club option of 22M to possibly buy out another year

Signing pitchers to long term deals is risky, but SS seems to have the stuff, athleticism, and cerebral game that I feel he’s a better bet than the average young arm.
 
Braves signed RHP Zach Thompson to a minor league deal. He's 31 and has been injured. Major league experience in 2021 (with Miami) and 2022 (with Pittsburgh). Missed 2024 with surgery. Not a big-time signing, but Braves have done a pretty good job finding guys who haven't had a lot of success and turning them into contributors (Lee and Holmes are the two most recent examples).

As for an extension of Schwellenbach, nice idea at a level but, like Strider, he's a guy who has already had one Tommy John Surgery. He's built differently than Strider and his delivery looks to be lower stress/effort so maybe the risk isn't as great. I'd still tread carefully and go higher AAV and less years.
 
No reason to sign SS to an extension this off-season. It would give us a pretty substantial tax hit for 2025. Let him repeat his performance in 2025 and revisit that idea a year from now when we have a lot of money coming off the books.
 
Carp said:
No reason to sign SS to an extension this off-season. It would give us a pretty substantial tax hit for 2025. Let him repeat his performance in 2025 and revisit that idea a year from now when we have a lot of money coming off the books.
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Could you explain why it would be a significant tax hit?

I think it might be a year of results too soon but wouldn't think tax hit would be much.
 
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