Looking towards 2025

If he signs the 6/75 Strider deal his tax hit is 12.5M.

If he plays for MLB minimum next year his tax hit is 0.7M.

I'd call that a significant tax hit.

SS is already controlled through his age 30 season with exactly $0 guaranteed. I see no reason to extend him despite what some fansided hack-job article suggests.
 
Southcack77 said:
Could you explain why it would be a significant tax hit?

I think it might be a year of results too soon but wouldn't think tax hit would be much.
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Tax penalties are calculated based on average cost of contract. So if he is signed for 50 over 5 years, the tax hit is 10 million regardless of what his salary is that year.

Since SS is pre arb, he is only going to be a tax hit of around a million next year.

To counter that argument, the Braves are probably going over again anyway. So waiting another year, could increase the cost of extension by several million per in real dollars. I think if the right deal could be had, then you do it. But I agree, it is not a priority for the offseason to be successful.
 
Southcack77 said:
Could you explain why it would be a significant tax hit?

I think it might be a year of results too soon but wouldn't think tax hit would be much.
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If we sign him to an extension, the tax hit is his average salary over the course of the contract. So assume we can get him so something similar to Strider at 6/75. He's immediate tax hit is 12.5 million. Right now his tax hit is less than 1 million. That's a pretty substantial difference. And I see no reason why SS wouldn't sign a similar contract next off-season if he was asking to accept one now. Maybe it'll take a larger contract or my more per year than he might get now, but likely it won't be substantially different. Might as well wait for a year.
 
Enscheff said:
If he signs the 6/75 Strider deal his tax hit is 12.5M.

If he plays for MLB minimum next year his tax hit is 0.7M.

I'd call that a significant tax hit.

SS is already controlled through his age 30 season with exactly $0 guaranteed. I see no reason to extend him despite what some fansided hack-job article suggests.
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Agreed. It might be something to consider at the end of the next year if he's truly an elite SP like Strider is. Buy out a FA year or two if we have financial flexibility and no large holes to fill in free agency next year.
 
Enscheff said:
If he signs the 6/75 Strider deal his tax hit is 12.5M.

If he plays for MLB minimum next year his tax hit is 0.7M.

I'd call that a significant tax hit.

SS is already controlled through his age 30 season with exactly $0 guaranteed. I see no reason to extend him despite what some fansided hack-job article suggests.
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I don't think he would be offered Strider money personally. I would be fine with locking him up for 10 per if it could buy me a 2 FA years with team options.
 
I don’t know who it would be, but now that Soler is gone we should be after a legit starting OF. Kelenic can play RF until Acuna returns, then move to 4th OF role and spell Acuna when needed. He’d get enough ABs. He could also play the same role in 2026 if we find a longer term answer in LF.

I think Ramon is due for a regression and it may be smart to pass on him and spend those resources on a higher quality starting LF.
 
What would be the board opinion on 3/$81 MM on Fried? I just don't see him landing a five-year deal and he seems open to a return. It's always a risk and if the AAV gets too high, it limits flexibility (and we saw what limited payroll flexibillity meant least season) if the team needs to find someone at the deadline.

Chico, agree on Laureano. He played well in the second half of the season for us, but is that just a blip? It would be ideal if they could find an everyday guy at a reasonable price instead of having to cobble together a patchwork solution. I just don't know who that would be.
 
50PoundHead said:
What would be the board opinion on 3/$81 MM on Fried? I just don't see him landing a five-year deal and he seems open to a return. It's always a risk and if the AAV gets too high, it limits flexibility (and we saw what limited payroll flexibillity meant least season) if the team needs to find someone at the deadline.

Chico, agree on Laureano. He played well in the second half of the season for us, but is that just a blip? It would be ideal if they could find an everyday guy at a reasonable price instead of having to cobble together a patchwork solution. I just don't know who that would be.
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I'd be thrilled with just about any three-year deal for Fried.
 
A lot of Laureano's success with the Braves came from his .380 BABIP, which I didn't realize until right now. With the Braves he still struck out 28% of the time and only walked 3.5% of the time. Needless to say, those are not promising rates when projecting him for 2025. I think Laureano is, at best, what everyone hoped Duvall would be when they gave him $3M late in the off season.

I'm hoping AA can somehow do better than a Kelenic/Laureano platoon in LF, but the reality is someone in the FO loves Kelenic enough to make all those moves to get him, so I have a hard time believing he isn't the primary LFer to start 2025.
 
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MLBTR's top trade targets: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/top-35-trade-candidates-mlb-offseason.html

Lots of pitchers on this list, but how motivated is AA to make a trade for a SP? It's hard to imagine AA parting with the package required for Crochet, though he did give up Contreras for Murphy, so Baldwin for Crochet isn't impossible to see happening. Gray seems like a salary dump type move AA might make. To me, the last year of Montgomery's deal seems like a similar acquisition to Sale, but obviously with lower upside.

The trade options for LF are...dismal. Other than a buy low gamble on Robert, there isn't anyone available worth moving Kelenic to the bench to start the season. The White Sox would have to be completely braindead to trade Robert right now, but they were stupid enough to hang onto him at peak value despite no chance of winning, so who knows what that horrible FO will do. Just another case of "they don't have to trade him right now" nonsense coming back to bite a team.
 
Enscheff said:
MLBTR's top trade targets: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/top-35-trade-candidates-mlb-offseason.html

Lots of pitchers on this list, but how motivated is AA to make a trade for a SP? It's hard to imagine AA parting with the package required for Crochet, though he did give up Contreras for Murphy, so Baldwin for Crochet isn't impossible to see happening. Gray seems like a salary dump type move AA might make. To me, the last year of Montgomery's deal seems like a similar acquisition to Sale, but obviously with lower upside.

The trade options for LF are...dismal. Other than a buy low gamble on Robert, there isn't anyone available worth moving Kelenic to the bench to start the season. The White Sox would have to be completely braindead to trade Robert right now, but they were stupid enough to hang onto him at peak value despite no chance of winning, so who knows what that horrible FO will do. Just another case of "they don't have to trade him right now" nonsense coming back to bite a team.
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Well then it's a good thing we are signing Soto.
 
Tapate50 said:
Arenado to LF? Backup 3b, and 1b?

Boy the Cardinals love to give no trade clauses.
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The Cardinals guessed oh so very wrong last off-season. They get some relief moving on from Goldschmidt, but they are still stuck with a couple of millstones. Gorman seems to have hit a wall and Walker just hasn't been able to make the jump to big league competition (in another example of a guy who was simply rushed to the majors).
 
Teoscar Hernandez has averaged a 125 RC+ and 3 WAR over the last 4 years. He just turned 32 and his subpar defense will only get worse. However, we’ll have a DH opening after the 25 season he could slide in to.

The predictions are 3-4 years 20-25M per year.
 
50PoundHead said:
The Cardinals guessed oh so very wrong last off-season. They get some relief moving on from Goldschmidt, but they are still stuck with a couple of millstones. Gorman seems to have hit a wall and Walker just hasn't been able to make the jump to big league competition (in another example of a guy who was simply rushed to the majors).
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It's actually been fun to watch the Cardinals organization go through this, after they've managed to be good for so long somehow. There have recently been serious indications that they are way behind in their player development areas, whether that meaning it's under funded or they no longer have the right people I'm not sure. Most of their recent top prospects haven't panned out. But it looks like they may be in for a lengthy rebuild.
 
Chico said:
Teoscar Hernandez has averaged a 125 RC+ and 3 WAR over the last 4 years. He just turned 32 and his subpar defense will only get worse. However, we’ll have a DH opening after the 25 season he could slide in to.

The predictions are 3-4 years 20-25M per year.
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Soler is basically the same player as Hernandez. Maybe Hernandez is slightly better in the field, but not substantially. It would be extremely questionable decision making to trade Soler and his 2/32 contract only to sign basically the same player for more years at a higher AAV.
 
NYCBrave said:
It's actually been fun to watch the Cardinals organization go through this, after they've managed to be good for so long somehow. There have recently been serious indications that they are way behind in their player development areas, whether that meaning it's under funded or they no longer have the right people I'm not sure. Most of their recent top prospects haven't panned out. But it looks like they may be in for a lengthy rebuild.
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The player development part is what is puzzling. They used to be a plug-and-play organization that never seemed to miss a beat. They've had a few highly-rated guys (Walker, Gorman, Dylan Carlson) who just haven't panned out. Add to that the high-buck contracts where performance hasn't matched investment and you've got a problem.
 
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