It's only deceptive if you don't understand it. Melvin has outproduced Maybin when on the field this season. I think some people still think of Melvin with what he did with the Braves and Maybin did in the first half. Who will be better going forward? Who knows. BJ has more talent but that didn't mean much the last two seasons.
Love The Strides We've Seen From Mallex Smith, But...
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
It's only deceptive if you don't understand it. Melvin has outproduced Maybin when on the field this season. I think some people still think of Melvin with what he did with the Braves and Maybin did in the first half. Who will be better going forward? Who knows. BJ has more talent but that didn't mean much the last two seasons.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
No one screamed that Maybin couldn't do what he did. Many expressed concerns because he hadn't been staying healthy. His offensive numbers are only a tick about his career averages. We said he couldn't do what he was doing in May, and that's been proven true by the other 5 months.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Guarantees? Evaluating prospects like most of life involves shades of grey. If you can find an indicator that reduces uncertainty by 5%, that's very valuable.
This is part of the reason I personally feel (not speaking for anyone else) that there's such a wide divide between statheads and scoutheads on some issues. When referencing the numbers and probabilities some seem to come off as if they're of the opinion that that 5% reduction in uncertainty absolutely makes their particular stance fact somehow. That was kind of my point above. I definitely think many of the new metrics have been extremely helpful when used in the manner you're describing, but the main point I think at least some scoutheads are making is that that's the extent they're actually helpful. No one has come up with that "no doubt slam-dunk" way of predicting future success based on them (yet) - when you have somewhat similar numbers for players (like Bradley and Chipper), crunching the numbers/programs/spreadsheets/etc. have fallen short of being able to tell someone why one turns into a Hall Of Famer and the other doesn't - at least convincingly IMO. I'm kinda trapped between the two camps and on the fence - I think there's obvious value in many of the numbers I've seen discussed by those more fluent in them than I am, but also would like for those who believe strictly in the numbers to provide more certainty before they talk down to others. Those unquantifiable aspects of the game have some value when trying to determine a player's true value as well (for me, at least).
Just an interesting exercise, but if you were to break down the Mutts/Gnats game last night (strictly by the numbers) I'm willing to bet they'd tell you there was absolutely no chance that the Mutts' best Pitcher gets shelled early by a hot Gnats' offense, falls behind 6-1, and they wind up winning the game when a guy who had been previously DFA'd and has marginal power (at best) hits a bomb off Papelbon.
The numbers are great, but as I've said many times, there are times that they can't explain strange happenings - yet some people will keep tweaking them more and more when they can't and just aren't willing to throw their hands up and simply admit "sometimes yajustneverknow".
We all (many of us at least) like to learn more about the "dark side" when we can - so just out of curiosity, why doesn't someone go back and adjust Chipper's numbers over the same period as Bradley's were adjusted by Zito and see if they turned out to be even closer (since I obviously didn't adjust Chipper's to reflect BABIP or any of those other factors)?
NYCBrave
Well-known member
FYI, from Today's Baseball America Prospect Chat with Ben Badler:
Kevin (Atlanta): How close is Malex Smith to the top 100 prospects list?
Ben Badler: I don't see him in that mix. Good chance he's a fourth outfielder, maybe a bit more, but with 20 power there isn't going to be much impact in the bat and more advanced pitchers are going to be able to exploit that, which we're already seeing in Triple-A. Useful player though.
Kevin (Atlanta): How close is Malex Smith to the top 100 prospects list?
Ben Badler: I don't see him in that mix. Good chance he's a fourth outfielder, maybe a bit more, but with 20 power there isn't going to be much impact in the bat and more advanced pitchers are going to be able to exploit that, which we're already seeing in Triple-A. Useful player though.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Are we really seeing that in AAA, though? I suppose we did at first, but he ended his stint there really hot after a dreadful start. His end to the season was pretty encouraging.
Yeah, he seems to only be talking about what Mallex did during July, which was his first month in AAA. He was much better in Aug/Sept at AAA posting an OPS over .800 with an OBP close to .400.
I agree that Mallex is most likely a Jace-level player in CF, and only useful while he is cheap, but he does have a history of struggling immediately after a promotion and then figuring things out after 100 PAs or so.
Maybe he does turn into a Bourn/Pierre type guy though. The Braves will probably find out next year when he is promoted,
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Mallex must either be the second coming of Brett Butler, be able to play CF, hit LO, keep an OBP of about .350 and steal some bases or else he has no real value.
We will find out next year.
We will find out next year.
It's nothing in-depth - Bill Ballew pieces rarely are. He's certainly not Shanks by any stretch of anyone's imagination, but he's a bit of a "homer" at times.
Just a short article with excerpts of an interview with Jonathon Schuerholz and a few quotes.
Organization's
1.) Best Player - Smith
2.) Best Pitcher - Banuelos
3.) Keep An Eye On - Riley
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
His value is in his speed and how it effects the game. There isn't a good analytical value for speed, so it gets devalued as a result. That speed is a tool, and with Mallex, it is an elite tool. Players with elite tools can impact the game.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Mallex's test in the majors will be his K issues. If he keeps his Ks at a respectable rate (I was encouraged by his improved K rate in AAA over AA) he could have similar value to Bourn.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Would Billy Hamilton be an example of a player with elite speed who is undervalued by the metrics?