Luiz Henrique Gohara

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
A lot is riding on this guy's development. If he continues along his current arc he has a chance of single handedly justifying the enormous investment the franchise has made in pitching prospects. I don't think the season he has had in the minors has been fully appreciated.

I will do a compare and contrast of his AA and AAA numbers with Newcomb. Before looking at those numbers, it is worth noting that both Gohara and Newcomb come out of environments that are not known for producing major league pitchers. And yet Gohara has had success at an age that is young for his level, something that can't be said for Newcomb.

Now for the numbers. First in AA. Gohara has mostly pitched at age 20 this year. In 12 AA games (11 of them starts) he has a strikeout rate of 10.3 per nine innings and walk rate of 3.1. Last year Sean Newcomb made 27 AA starts at age 23. He had a strikeout rate of 9.8 and walk rate of 4.6.

Moving on to their AAA numbers this year. Newcomb put up a strikeout rate of 11.6 and walk rate of 5.2 in 11 starts. Gohara has put up a strikeout rate of 12.2 and walk rate of 4.1 in 7 starts.

The difference between what Gohara has done in AA and AAA and what Newcomb has done (especially after accounting for age) is what separates a prospect with a significantly higher than 50% chance of success as a major league starter and one whose chances I would put in the 30-40% range.
 
I agree and take it further: he has the appearance of #1 or #2 potential

The other Braves prospects appear to me to be more #3 or #4 type guys

The Braves don't need 10 #4 type pitchers, 3 or 4 would do

However, every contending org needs a TOR starter or two and I think Gohara and Maybe Wright are the Braves best chance of that right now
 
A lot of people were down on the trade when it happened calling him fat and injury prone. Well he turned in a great season and showed no signs of injury so i'd say the trade has turned out pretty well so far. I would leave him in AAA for the first few months next year and then if he is still doing what he's been doing then i'd bring him up, but he has all the things to say he could be a TOR starter.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I agree and take it further: he has the appearance of #1 or #2 potential

The other Braves prospects appear to me to be more #3 or #4 type guys

The Braves don't need 10 #4 type pitchers, 3 or 4 would do

However, every contending org needs a TOR starter or two and I think Gohara and Maybe Wright are the Braves best chance of that right now
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I'd agree with that. Wright and Gohara look like TOR type starters. Allard and Soroka could be as well but it's unlikely. Hopefully legit #3 with a chance to be a 2.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'd agree with that. Wright and Gohara look like TOR type starters. Allard and Soroka could be as well but it's unlikely. Hopefully legit #3 with a chance to be a 2.
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Yep. The only chance that Soroka and Allard have to become TOR type guys would be for their fastball speed to increase. Could happen since they are young though.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'd agree with that. Wright and Gohara look like TOR type starters. Allard and Soroka could be as well but it's unlikely. Hopefully legit #3 with a chance to be a 2.
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Wright's first season look's a lot more like Hursh's than Minor's. Small sample caveat applies. Hopefully, he steps it up next year.
 
I agree with al that.

This isn't the 1970s or 80s and the raves of the 90s were instrumental in bringing about a more narrow stem zone.

A guy topping out at 90 these days has no chance to be a TOR starter no matter what Don Sutton says. Even if you have a awesome secondary pitch all that means is you'll end up a high leverage reliever
 
smootness said:
Ya think?
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Well, in Hursh's case the small sample was an accurate leading indicator. Big sample is always preferable than small sample. But you work with what's available and assign appropriate confidence bands.

I will say in Wright's defense that he was drafted higher than Hursh and has a more impressive body of work in college. And his first year minor league numbers are somewhat better than Hursh's. However, I think there is a good chance that Wright turns out to be no better than Mike Minor.
 
nsacpi said:
Wright's first season look's a lot more like Hursh's than Minor's. Small sample caveat applies. Hopefully, he steps it up next year.
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Yeah I was real excited about Wright but his first look has been pretty mixed and meh. Hopefully he's just a bit tired.
 
Hudson2 said:
I'd agree with that. Wright and Gohara look like TOR type starters. Allard and Soroka could be as well but it's unlikely. Hopefully legit #3 with a chance to be a 2.
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Agreed. I will happily eat crow if Gohara stays healthy, keeps his weight in check, and becomes a legit SP (I don't even need him to be TOR to consider him a success).

Braves need 3 of those 4 to stick if the rebuild is going to succeed.
 
Doesn't seem like the injury history should be worried about anymore. If it was a real shoulder problem it would have crept back up with his heaviest workload thus far. He only had the brief issue with a bicep strain that didn't seem to cause any problems after. His weight could be concerning but tons of heavy pitchers have been very successful and he is in much better shape than he was.
 
nsacpi said:
Wright's first season look's a lot more like Hursh's than Minor's. Small sample caveat applies. Hopefully, he steps it up next year.
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Minor 30 IP, 2.93 ERA 8.5 K/9 1.8 BB/9

Hurst 27 IP .67 ERA 5.9 K/9 3.3 BB/9

Wright 15 IP 3.0 ERA 9 K/9 3.6 BB/9

Sort of hard to compare those.

Wright's ERA and Ks are more like Minor. His walks are more like Hursh.
 
nsacpi said:
Minor was pretty good. I would be happy with pretty much any prospect turning into Mike Minor. Or Julio Teheran. I realize others get more exuberant about prospects.
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If you think him turning into Mike Minor would be a good outcome, that's fine. But the way you phrased it definitely seemed to indicate you think he will fall short of where his prospect status/draft slot would indicate. Throwing a 'however' in there seemed to indicate to me you think he won't be as good as expected. And I just don't know what anyone would base that on at this point.
 
smootness said:
If you think him turning into Mike Minor would be a good outcome, that's fine. But the way you phrased it definitely seemed to indicate you think he will fall short of where his prospect status/draft slot would indicate. Throwing a 'however' in there seemed to indicate to me you think he won't be as good as expected. And I just don't know what anyone would base that on at this point.
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I feel like he's putting people on.

I would almost go along with his having seen him for 15 IP and decided the stuff was lacking, but man alive a stat line?
 
You hate to put that kind of weight on any particular prospect, but Gohara has been likely to be the key all along when you think about it. I also think people have jumped ship and are likely to regret falling off the Fried bandwagon so quickly, especially given the fact that putting up a healthy season with a relatively full workload was probably the most important thing needed from him.

Assuming Gohara is what many think he is and one of Fried or Allard develops into a solid #3 at worst, you still have the pieces to top off the rotation and get a true "Ace" and to unload one of Markakis or Kemp this winter to pay for a more important piece WITHOUT moving any offensive prospects.

I still think the "untouchables" remain the same - Freeman, Ender, Swanson, Albies, Acuna, Gohara, Wright, Allard, Maitan, and Soroka. The expectation is that you're going to get 3/5 of a legitimate MLB rotation out of that group (with Fried also part of that core), and that WHEN the time is right you'll be able to use the excess - with Julio and Folty potentially available to add a serious offensive piece. A Folty for McMahon swap would seem to make all the sense in the world - arguably for both sides, leaving you with a group of Newcomb, Sims, Anderson, Wentz, Pache, Peterson, Demeritte, and Touki to possibly offer up in a deal for Fulmer or Archer.
 
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