Southcack77
Well-known member
My question is whether a well located 93 mph fastball is easier to hit now than it was 10 years ago.
I guess hitters are more used to velocity from early levels due to the insane way kids treat their arms.
Luiz Henrique Gohara
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
My question is whether a well located 93 mph fastball is easier to hit now than it was 10 years ago.
I guess hitters are more used to velocity from early levels due to the insane way kids treat their arms.
I'd reckon it's about the same.
Not sure if this pertains to anything being argued about in this thread but 95+ is a game changer and always will be. Whether it was 20 years ago or today it's still hard to hit and likely always will be. Want to know why strikeouts are at an all time high and continue to increase almost year after year? Pitchers, on average, are throwing harder than they ever have. In the 10 years of velocity numbers that we have on fangraphs it's gone from a low of 91.8 in 2008 to 93.6 in 2017 on fastballs. And I'm almost positive we would see the same increase if we had the data from the previous 10 years. Strikeouts are going to continue to rise as more and more players are brought into the big leagues that can throw hard.
What does it all mean? Who knows. But throwing hard is the norm and if you can't you better excel at the other things really well or you aren't going to be given much of an opportunity in today's game.
msstate7
Well-known member
Aren't HRs also at an all time high? If so, could the correlation be more guys swinging for fences = more Ks?
I'm sure that's part of it. Hitters have found out that, to a point, strikeouts simply don't matter if you are putting the ball over the fence. The flip side to this, which is hard for some people to grasp, is that for pitchers the strikeout is still very much important. If you aren't striking guys out then you better no being giving up any walks and limiting homers more than your average pitcher.
The real take away here is that pitchers are throwing harder and on average learning how to pitch at these velocities. If you aren't then you are going to be left behind unless you are exceptional in other areas.
It would be interesting to hear from others who've actually seen him pitch.
Personally, it'd surprise me if he didn't start the year again in Gwinnett for the reasons that you mentioned (walks). He just throws hard without command of that fastball.
I think the two things go hand in hand.
A pitching prospect knows that if he can't throw 95+ he will not likely make it, thus they learn to throw harder. That causes them to lose some command. If they can maintain control, then they are likely to leave more pitches in the middle of the plate.
Likewise, prospect hitters know they have to be able to hit the 95+ fastball, which means they have to react quicker. A 95+ on the corner is harder for them to make contact with but they can make contact with a pitch over the middle of the plate.
This is what every team should be trying to find.
When you add more velocity with contact (and harder swings) you get better exit velocity so you get further distance...
The only way to break the cycle is for a pitching prospect to develop outstanding control with near 95 velocity. They then can make it through the minors (even though people will question them all the way) but when they make it, they will be able to limit HRs, maintain high K rates, limit BB rates and become #2 pitchers on any team in the league.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Only a sith deals on absolutes. I would think a mathematically inclined individual such as yourself would know better.
Athletes are getting bigger and stronger in all sports. Pitchers throw harder, batters hit the ball harder.
As a result, we are seeing the game move more and more towards the 3 true outcomes. Whether that's a good thing or not is certainly open for debate.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I agree. My intent was (and is always) to point out that you ignore change at your peril. The game today isn't the game of the 90's much less the game of the 80's or even 1880's.
The parks have changed (hell, the running game aficionado's always point to the 80's with the Cardinals as an ideal way to build a team all while avoiding the fact that Astroturf has gone the way of the dinosaur.) The players have changed in training, nutrition, attitude, approach. The game is year round as opposed to a break in selling cars or insurance in the offseason. Technology has changed. Players now know there launch angle, exit velocity, etc and can adjust accordingly.
Building a team for the way you would like things to be instead of the way they are is a sure way to disaster.
the dark side is always better
Indeed. And the Braves seem to believe it's still 1991
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
yeah...definitely makes him more of a prospect in my eyes
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
most likely a reliever but needs to be given every opportunity to develop as a starter
steveAKAslick
Mashin' to Mississippi
Gohara should be called up asap for a Sims next start imo
msstate7
Well-known member
He has to be added to 40 man roster anyway, right?
Deester11
Well-known member
service clock? We don't need no stinking service clock!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
correct