Magic Number Thread

Carp said:
We had some bad luck too, though we did benefit from some BABIP.

Regardless, we've done well vs them practically all season and they have the worst pen in baseball. I think people are selling the Cards short. Their overall pitching is strong, even if they don't sport a 3 headed monster in the rotation. Considering a lot of our best work comes in the later innings, that proposes a problem.
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The key against the Cards will be getting a lead against their starters. Their bullpen has the best FIP in baseball but the starters are a different story. They can be scored on and the Braves offense is quite a bit better.
 
Okay guys, its time to officially hit the panic button. Fangraphs Playoff Odds STILL gives the Nationals a 0.2% chance of winning the division. If we don't deal the death blow tonight then its officially over and we might as well start prepping for a wild card game against the Cubs.
 
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Somehow seems very appropriate.
 
nsacpi said:
The reaction around here when they signed Harper and traded for Realmuto was precious.
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I wanted Realmuto, but not if Soroka was in the deal. The jury is still out on Riley (and probably will be for another year). But that is what the Marlins supposedly asked for and not what we offered.

Harper is a good player, but I wonder if there is any elevation left in his game. If not, that signing will go down as one of the worst ever.

I wonder if the Phils' upper echelon in their Brainless Trust can use company printers to update their resumes.
 
50PoundHead said:
I wanted Realmuto, but not if Soroka was in the deal. The jury is still out on Riley (and probably will be for another year). But that is what the Marlins supposedly asked for and not what we offered.

Harper is a good player, but I wonder if there is any elevation left in his game. If not, that signing will go down as one of the worst ever.

I wonder if the Phils' upper echelon in their Brainless Trust can use company printers to update their resumes.
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It's about maintaining with Harper. How many of those 13 years will he be a good player? Because 25 million a year isnt a lot right now for a good player.
 
50PoundHead said:
I wonder if the Phils' upper echelon in their Brainless Trust can use company printers to update their resumes.
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they just signed extensions right before the season began. i’m not sure ownership realizes they don’t exactly know what they’re doing.
 
50PoundHead said:
Harper is a good player, but I wonder if there is any elevation left in his game. If not, that signing will go down as one of the worst ever.
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I don't think it's so much elevation as finding consistency. He is the streakiest player I've seen, hands down. Good seasons, bad seasons, mediocre seasons. Even within seasons, you get a month (or more) long streak in which he's like the second or third best hitter of all time, immediately followed by a month (or more) long streak in which he struggles to hit as well as a good hitting pitcher. Dude can't decide if he's a 1.400 OPS player or a .550 OPS player. The average ends up solid, but Jaysus, those bad streaks have to be torture if you're rooting for him.
 
50PoundHead said:
I wanted Realmuto, but not if Soroka was in the deal. The jury is still out on Riley (and probably will be for another year). But that is what the Marlins supposedly asked for and not what we offered.

Harper is a good player, but I wonder if there is any elevation left in his game. If not, that signing will go down as one of the worst ever.

I wonder if the Phils' upper echelon in their Brainless Trust can use company printers to update their resumes.
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Regarding JTR, we may have dodged a bullet if they wanted Soroka/Riley. I would have done Riley and a Wright/Wilson/Touki/Muller and filler etc.

Harper, he's a good player but it's the years not money per year thats the issue. How much longer if he gonna be a good player for, the backend of that contract can be pretty brutal since there's no opt outs.
 
Super said:
they just signed extensions right before the season began. i’m not sure ownership realizes they don’t exactly know what they’re doing.
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The GM is the bigger problem than Kapler. Kapler's done a good job getting them to contend giving the pitching issues. They've produced like 3 good players since their rebuild started in Kingery, Nola, and Hoskins. Whiffing on Moniak at 1/1 is also a big failure too. Their rebuild started in 2012/2013 and ours started in 2015/2016 and they've produced a lot of nothing. They still have some players on the farm in Bohm, Howard, but guys like Medina took a step back, and trading away Sixto if he turns into a stud will hurt alot, him and Nola would have been a nasty pairing for years to come.

Their player development has been a big reason they may not be as good as they could be with the financial advantage they have. While the Dodgers seem to pop out a good player from their farm every year in a Joc, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, and now Will Smith, Lux, among others. And getting guys like Turner, Muncy, Chris Taylor off the scrap heap to turn into studs.
 
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Super said:
having to maintain 12 more years will be tough.
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True. He has age and position (somewhat) on his side if he keeps himself in shape. He's not a Pujols or Cabrera so we shouldn't expect him to crater in his early to mid 30's like those guys did. He essentially needs to generate 41 WAR with the Phillies for his contract to break even on a pure $ per WAR scenario. But when looking at ticket/jersey sales it's likely less but that's hard to figure.
 
thewupk said:
True. He has age and position (somewhat) on his side if he keeps himself in shape. He's not a Pujols or Cabrera so we shouldn't expect him to crater in his early to mid 30's like those guys did. He essentially needs to generate 41 WAR with the Phillies for his contract to break even on a pure $ per WAR scenario. But when looking at ticket/jersey sales it's likely less but that's hard to figure.
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I think he ends up being worth that contract from the standpoint you presented. Given the Phillies struggles though, I don’t think the ticket sales bump is going to last. Their attendance has essentially died as the season has gone on.

The Phillies are in a precarious position. They don’t have many paths to acquiring help without spending in free agency which is both inefficient and ineffective. And they need a lot of help on the starting pitching front.
 
I was very impressed with Harper early in his career and I always thought he and Trout would be 1 and 1A. I don't know if Harper merits that right now. Agree on the consistency aspect for Harper.
 
thewupk said:
True. He has age and position (somewhat) on his side if he keeps himself in shape. He's not a Pujols or Cabrera so we shouldn't expect him to crater in his early to mid 30's like those guys did. He essentially needs to generate 41 WAR with the Phillies for his contract to break even on a pure $ per WAR scenario. But when looking at ticket/jersey sales it's likely less but that's hard to figure.
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so he needs to put up this season like 9 more times? and this one has been propped up by good defense.
 
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