Mallex/inciarte

If you use the Tulowitzki trade as a comp (even though TT has a significantly worse injury history and played in Colorado, which always hurts a little) the Rocks got Hoffman (#49 prospect in MLB at the time), Tinoco - a young pitcher with a big FB, Castro - also a young pitcher with a big FB, and Joes Reyes who was owed whatever was left on his contract during the season of the trade plus $22M, $22M and $4M.

I don't know if the Rocks actually wanted Reyes or just took him as money to offset the deal.

But, given that, I think you would be looking at something like: Newcomb, Toussaint, Povse and Kemp or Markakis for Longoria.

Of course, the Rocks/Jays trade was made with the Jays making a run at the pennant. The Braves are certainly not. So, you have to decide if Longoria would mean as much to a rebuilding team as what the Jays thought they were getting with Tulo.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If you use the Tulowitzki trade as a comp (even though TT has a significantly worse injury history and played in Colorado, which always hurts a little) the Rocks got Hoffman (#49 prospect in MLB at the time), Tinoco - a young pitcher with a big FB, Castro - also a young pitcher with a big FB, and Joes Reyes who was owed whatever was left on his contract during the season of the trade plus $22M, $22M and $4M.

I don't know if the Rocks actually wanted Reyes or just took him as money to offset the deal.

But, given that, I think you would be looking at something like: Newcomb, Toussaint, Povse and Kemp or Markakis for Longoria.

Of course, the Rocks/Jays trade was made with the Jays making a run at the pennant. The Braves are certainly not. So, you have to decide if Longoria would mean as much to a rebuilding team as what the Jays thought they were getting with Tulo.
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You are making the case as to why the trades we cook up on the board rarely happen. A trade like that would be a setback in the rebuild, and thus won't happen. If that is the price for Longo, then he won't be a Brave.

But I can't help but notice that for the guys you really don't want to see a trade for, you estimate their cost much higher than anyone else on the board. If they really want to move Longo, his price will come down from that level. Otherwise they will end up keeping him. We shall see how badly they want to move him.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If you use the Tulowitzki trade as a comp (even though TT has a significantly worse injury history and played in Colorado, which always hurts a little) the Rocks got Hoffman (#49 prospect in MLB at the time), Tinoco - a young pitcher with a big FB, Castro - also a young pitcher with a big FB, and Joes Reyes who was owed whatever was left on his contract during the season of the trade plus $22M, $22M and $4M.

I don't know if the Rocks actually wanted Reyes or just took him as money to offset the deal.

But, given that, I think you would be looking at something like: Newcomb, Toussaint, Povse and Kemp or Markakis for Longoria.

Of course, the Rocks/Jays trade was made with the Jays making a run at the pennant. The Braves are certainly not. So, you have to decide if Longoria would mean as much to a rebuilding team as what the Jays thought they were getting with Tulo.
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Sub in Fried for Toussaint and TB will really max their return.
 
smootness said:
It's expected that people are most skeptical of WAR where it values areas of the game without many traditional statistics involved. We know how good a hitter a guy who bats .300 with a .900 OPS and 30 HR is. It's harder to determine how good a defender is when all we have are errors and assists or how good a base runner is when all we have are SB/CS.

But that doesn't mean WAR is super flawed because of that. We're trained to think that a guy with big-time offensive numbers is great, period, and that a guy without big-time offensive numbers is not, no matter what else he does. That doesn't mean we're right. Defense and base running are very important parts of the game, I think anyone would agree. And they've attempted to better capture the value of those things. WAR is not some definitive guide, but I think it does a pretty good job overall.
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Thanks for this moderate viewpoint. I'm a skeptic, as I've made clear on a number of occasions. Not of the effort, but what I perceive as the overvaluing of some of the ancillary components. Where I'm at now is taking the offensive side as-is and discounting (not ignoring) the defensive side, particularly on corner OFs. I'm fairly certain as the metric evolves it will tamp down some of those broad, erratic swings that make me (and apparently most front offices) question its validity.

So if somebody's a 6 WAR player and it's 2 WAR hitting I'm thinking of that as more of a 4 WAR player, whereas, if it's 4 WAR on offense, that's a 5 WAR player. Takes some of the volatility out of it, particularly for outfielders who only have a handful of non-routine chances per year.
 
mfree80 said:
You are making the case as to why the trades we cook up on the board rarely happen. A trade like that would be a setback in the rebuild, and thus won't happen. If that is the price for Longo, then he won't be a Brave.

But I can't help but notice that for the guys you really don't want to see a trade for, you estimate their cost much higher than anyone else on the board. If they really want to move Longo, his price will come down from that level. Otherwise they will end up keeping him. We shall see how badly they want to move him.
Click to expand...

I originally said it would take Albies, Allard and Soroka. After thinking about it, that was too much. I was wrong. I can say it and I don't profess to be right all the time.

But I'm not a blind homer either. Someone said it would take a package similar to what was given up for Tulo and I thought they had a good point so I looked at what happened in that trade.

I took the relative values of the players Toronto sent and tried to find similar talent from the Braves, keeping in mind that Longoria is considered a better player and safer bet than Tulo was when he moved.

Would I like to get Longoria? Sure. Would I like to get him for old chewing gum and magic pixie dust? Of course, who wouldn't? But I can't imaging that happening. I imagine that it will take AT LEAST a Tulo like haul, probably more.

Do I think the Braves are going to be willing to part with at least a few high end pieces to get Longoria? No. I have said they won't many times. I've said they shouldn't. I've even said that they would be stupid to do so.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I originally said it would take Albies, Allard and Soroka. After thinking about it, that was too much. I was wrong. I can say it and I don't profess to be right all the time.

But I'm not a blind homer either. Someone said it would take a package similar to what was given up for Tulo and I thought they had a good point so I looked at what happened in that trade.

I took the relative values of the players Toronto sent and tried to find similar talent from the Braves, keeping in mind that Longoria is considered a better player and safer bet than Tulo was when he moved.

Would I like to get Longoria? Sure. Would I like to get him for old chewing gum and magic pixie dust? Of course, who wouldn't? But I can't imaging that happening. I imagine that it will take AT LEAST a Tulo like haul, probably more.

Do I think the Braves are going to be willing to part with at least a few high end pieces to get Longoria? No. I have said they won't many times. I've said they shouldn't. I've even said that they would be stupid to do so.
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Yeah. The thing is, the Braves will keep looking for guys that are bargains. Most of the trades they try to pull off won't work, so they move on and try to find another bargain. I am okay with them not setting their heart on a single guy and paying whatever price it takes to get him right now.

Eventually, they will have to truly compete for a specific guy or two to complete the team, but they are not there yet. I suspect the off season will be one to watch this year. In the meantime, finding good players who are bargains has lead to some guys who were flipped, and some young guys who will eventually be part of the future.
 
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