Mark Melancon to Atlanta per Passan

[nsacpi]

We have starters, but not a lot of guys we were ready to abandon as starters and move to the pen.

Newk and Touki have spent most of the year in the pen. So the willingness to do this is not really in question. We've also given Ynoa a couple looks. We've called up Weigel and Wright and put them in the pen, but ended up not using them (so far).

 

[nsacpi]

True, but no one was expecting much production from any of them aside from Newk.

I think the point of having strength in numbers is that while no individual player is likely to come through as a group you can reasonably assume a few will emerge. That was pretty much the strategy.

 

[Enscheff]

Well put. Any team putting together a roster has to take some chances. AA took some chances with the pen, with the understanding there were a large number of in-house options who could potentially work out and that if not enough of the in-house options worked out he could do some upgrading during the season. This critique of AA's roster management has never held water.

WWTDD? What Would The Dodgers Do?

The Dodgers would cycle through a bunch of low cost BP arms they hoarded by creatively exploiting service time and roster rules for the first 3-4 months, find a few that worked, and then supplement the BP with additions at the deadline...all while chasing value the entire time.

That's exactly what AA did, and by now it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The Braves appear to be a poor man's "Dodgers East", which is a pretty good place to be, imo.

 

[BeanieAntics]

WWTDD? What Would The Dodgers Do?

The Dodgers would cycle through a bunch of low cost BP arms they hoarded by creatively exploiting service time and roster rules for the first 3-4 months, find a few that worked, and then supplement the BP with additions at the deadline...all while chasing value the entire time.

That's exactly what AA did, and by now it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The Braves appear to be a poor man's "Dodgers East", which is a pretty good place to be, imo.

I think its an amazing spot to be in. The Dodgers have a massive financial advantage, but their roster building philosophy is second to none in the MLB. AA has taken that philosophy and applied to a mid market payroll and I think it has set us up for a nice long contention window. I hope we keep AA for a long time.

I will say that I do seriously question the Melancon trade. It just seems like such a poor value proposition. But AA has done enough to have earned the benefit of the doubt from me. Maybe he knows something about Melancon that makes him more appealing than he appears to be on paper.

 

[nsacpi]

I think its an amazing spot to be in. The Dodgers have a massive financial advantage, but their roster building philosophy is second to none in the MLB. AA has taken that philosophy and applied to a mid market payroll and I think it has set us up for a nice long contention window. I hope we keep AA for a long time.

I will say that I do seriously question the Melancon trade. It just seems like such a poor value proposition. But AA has done enough to have earned the benefit of the doubt from me. Maybe he knows something about Melancon that makes him more appealing than he appears to be on paper.

One thing we need to keep in mind is that the Acuna and Albies contracts effectively close a lot of the financial gap between us and big market teams like the Dodgers. It will manifest itself in those free agency years we are buying out. But effectively we have a couple guys who together are going to generate about 10 WAR per year and paying them less then the going rate for 3 WAR. So close to 70M of free production.

And of course we have this pre-free agency period when we will benefit yugely from the USUAL benefit of having a lot of young talent: Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Fried, Swanson. And its not going to dry up the next few years as Pache, Waters, Riley, Anderson and others come aboard.

 

[chop2chip]

One thing we need to keep in mind is that the Acuna and Albies contracts effectively close a lot of the financial gap between us and big market teams like the Dodgers. It will manifest itself in those free agency years we are buying out. But effectively we have a couple guys who together are going to generate about 10 WAR per year and paying them less then the going rate for 3 WAR. So close to 70M of free production.

And of course we have this pre-free agency period when we will benefit yugely from the USUAL benefit of having a lot of young talent: Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Fried, Swanson. And its not going to dry up the next few years as Pache, Waters, Riley, Anderson and others come aboard.

Yup. Which is why I expect the Braves to continue to target short term high AAV options. The difference between the Braves and Dodgers is the tolerance to contract length. The Dodgers can sign an AJ Pollock and tolerate him being an albatross over 5 years. The Braves cannot.

 

[nsacpi]

Yup. Which is why I expect the Braves to continue to target short term high AAV options. The difference between the Braves and Dodgers is the tolerance to contract length. The Dodgers can sign an AJ Pollock and tolerate him being an albatross over 5 years. The Braves cannot.

Makes sense. And AA has already shown a pronounced preference for short term deals in his time with the Braves: Donaldson, Keuchel, McCann, Markakis, O'Day, Melancon, Greene, Gausman.

The guys who are in their arb years like Greene and Gausman are effectively on a series of one-year options.

I could see him going two years with Donaldson this off-season, but nothing longer.

 

[AerchAngel]

Even though he is a condescending jerk MOST of the time, he actually nails 95% percent of what he posts.

What he said about the Dodgers and how AA do with a smaller market is like nails.

I have to give it up for Dr. Scheff, he really said that I was thinking.

Before you guys say why I did not. Man, if I screw up, I would be a voodoo doll and Dr. Scheff will throw darts at it.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Makes sense. And AA has already shown a pronounced preference for short term deals in his time with the Braves: Donaldson, Keuchel, McCann, Markakis, O'Day, Melancon, Greene, Gausman.

The guys who are in their arb years like Greene and Gausman are effectively on a series of one-year options.

I could see him going two years with Donaldson this off-season, but nothing longer.

This is why I think Trevor Bauer should be a prime target for us when he reaches free agency. Getting a player of that quality who actually prefers 1 year contracts is a super rare thing.

 

[chop2chip]

This is why I think Trevor Bauer should be a prime target for us when he reaches free agency. Getting a player of that quality who actually prefers 1 year contracts is a super rare thing.

Bauer isn’t nearly as good as he thinks he is to actually go year to year. If he does, it’s a colossal mistake.

 

[Enscheff]

I think its an amazing spot to be in. The Dodgers have a massive financial advantage, but their roster building philosophy is second to none in the MLB. AA has taken that philosophy and applied to a mid market payroll and I think it has set us up for a nice long contention window. I hope we keep AA for a long time.

I will say that I do seriously question the Melancon trade. It just seems like such a poor value proposition. But AA has done enough to have earned the benefit of the doubt from me. Maybe he knows something about Melancon that makes him more appealing than he appears to be on paper.

I'm also struggling to fit the Melancon trade into the overall picture of what we've seen AA do. The only thing I can come up with is that AA had some cash sitting in the 2019 coffer, and July 31st was his last chance to spend it. The Melancon deal was the Plan D fall back option in case his other attempts at adding to the roster didn't pan out.

It certainly is a stretch of a hypothetical to make, but at the end of the day if you have $100 to spend by midnight or you lose it, it's better to spend that $100 on something worth $75 at 11:59 than to lose the $100 and get nothing at all.

 

[Super]

I'm also struggling to fit the Melancon trade into the overall picture of what we've seen AA do. The only thing I can come up with is that AA had some cash sitting in the 2019 coffer, and July 31st was his last chance to spend it. The Melancon deal was the Plan D fall back option in case his other attempts at adding to the roster didn't pan out.

It certainly is a stretch of a hypothetical to make, but at the end of the day if you have $100 to spend by midnight or you lose it, it's better to spend that $100 on something worth $75 at 11:59 than to lose the $100 and get nothing at all.

(obviously not the same...but got a chuckle thinking of it)

 

[nsacpi]

I'm also struggling to fit the Melancon trade into the overall picture of what we've seen AA do. The only thing I can come up with is that AA had some cash sitting in the 2019 coffer, and July 31st was his last chance to spend it. The Melancon deal was the Plan D fall back option in case his other attempts at adding to the roster didn't pan out.

It certainly is a stretch of a hypothetical to make, but at the end of the day if you have $100 to spend by midnight or you lose it, it's better to spend that $100 on something worth $75 at 11:59 than to lose the $100 and get nothing at all.

The odd thing is he is also claiming McGuirk gave him approval to go past the budget. Maybe it was an order not approval.

 

[sturg33]

Napkin math, but each playoff game should bring about $4M in attendance revenue, alone (40k fans at $100 a ticket).

Plus tv revenue, plus concessions.

Extending a playoff run likely pays for much of these added costs if you can get yourself 6 playoff home games.

 

[NYCBrave]

I think its an amazing spot to be in. The Dodgers have a massive financial advantage, but their roster building philosophy is second to none in the MLB. AA has taken that philosophy and applied to a mid market payroll and I think it has set us up for a nice long contention window. I hope we keep AA for a long time.

I will say that I do seriously question the Melancon trade. It just seems like such a poor value proposition. But AA has done enough to have earned the benefit of the doubt from me. Maybe he knows something about Melancon that makes him more appealing than he appears to be on paper.

An underrated asprct of the Dodgers is their player development. They seem to be right there with the Yankees in that regard. I'm hoping we can continue to be effective there as well.

 

[BeanieAntics]

An underrated asprct of the Dodgers is their player development. They seem to be right there with the Yankees in that regard. I'm hoping we can continue to be effective there as well.

It feels like we are way behind when it comes to pitching development. Well, I don't know if its development or the scouting in the first place, but they seem to be much better at developing arms with really nasty stuff. On the position player front, we've either been extremely lucky or we have a great development staff because we've hit on a way higher percentage of hitting prospects than we have any business hitting on.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I'm also struggling to fit the Melancon trade into the overall picture of what we've seen AA do. The only thing I can come up with is that AA had some cash sitting in the 2019 coffer, and July 31st was his last chance to spend it. The Melancon deal was the Plan D fall back option in case his other attempts at adding to the roster didn't pan out.

It certainly is a stretch of a hypothetical to make, but at the end of the day if you have $100 to spend by midnight or you lose it, it's better to spend that $100 on something worth $75 at 11:59 than to lose the $100 and get nothing at all.

Maybe that is the case, but he's also forcing himself to allocate more than 10% of the 2020 payroll to Melancon. I would almost just rather lose the money and not have to eat in to this offseason's spending capacity. Those 14 million dollars could be spent on a much better player than MM.

 

[The Tariff King]

My thinking is, AA realizes how much of a monkey on the back it is for this franchise to have been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs in 02, 03, 04, 05, 10, 12, 13, 18.

Our bullpen isn't as good as the 2012 team, but we still have a good chance to just get past the NLDS and get that burden off the shoulders. I think AA realizes how much better we are than everyone else in the NL besides the Dodgers, and they if we get to the NLCS to play them we have the best puncher's chance to knock them out. Of course we could get lucky nad have someone else knock them out of the NLDS.

MM move wasn't a go all-in but moreso, realize the field around you this year isn't as strong, and make a move like this to help the morale in the clubhouse that you're going all out to fix the bullpen and then see what happens.

Sometimes moves like this does light a fire in the clubhouse that your front office is trying to make improvements. I think we spend a lot of time trying to figure out how AA can most efficiently and minimally spend to build a contender, when he probably thinks a move like this won't hurt as much as we on this board think it will.

 

[Carp]

Something else worth considering here is that before the trade, the only relievers with postseason experience were Newk and Tomlin (who I'd rather not see make the post-season roster). Not only does Melancon bring plenty of experience, but he's also performed extremely well there.