Matt Olson to Braves!

JP Morosi

The #BlueJays have had conversations with Freddie Freeman’s camp and conveyed serious interest as his free agent decision nears, sources confirm. Freeman is a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada and played for Canada at the ‘17 WBC.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
JP Morosi

The #BlueJays have had conversations with Freddie Freeman’s camp and conveyed serious interest as his free agent decision nears, sources confirm. Freeman is a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada and played for Canada at the ‘17 WBC.
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Chelsea not gonna be a fan of the cold.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
JP Morosi

The #BlueJays have had conversations with Freddie Freeman’s camp and conveyed serious interest as his free agent decision nears, sources confirm. Freeman is a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada and played for Canada at the ‘17 WBC.
Click to expand...

I figured the Blue Jays would get involved. I hope he goes to the AL
 
I think he goes to LA. Interested to see the contract he signs, Dodgers usually dont go for long year deals. Would honestly be surprised if they offered 5 or 6 years.
 
Toronto fans show up opening week, and then only in playoff stretch mid-September and if they're in October.

Fred gonna have the whole stadium to himself for target practice.
 
OPTION 1:
2022 - Freeman 4.5-5.5 WAR - $30M
2023 - Freeman 4.0-5.0 WAR - $30M
2024 - Freeman 3.5-4.5 WAR - $30M
2025 - Freeman 3.0 WAR - $30M
2026 - Freeman 2.0 WAR - $30M
2027 - Freeman 1.5-2.0 WAR - $30M

That's an aggressive aging curve, no early retirement. It's not the worse case scenario obviously, but it's a bad projection for FF's value.

OPTION 2:
2022 - Olson 4.0-5.0 WAR - $12M
2023 - Olson 4.0-5.5 WAR - $20-2M
2024 - Reenter the 1B Market likely paying $35-40M for a 5 WAR hitter, or trying to get value, We really don't have an internal solution.

Basically we have traded 4 solid prospects for $18M payroll in 2022 and $8-10 in 2023.
We could've had Freeman at fair cost for 24-25 and an overpay in 26-27.
We trade that for uncertainty for 4 seasons now. Plus there will be additional acquisition cost for the 1B spot in 2024 unless Olson is extended.

KEYS to the deal -
1. Making GREAT use of the Payroll flexibility in 22 and 23. (re: two of Soler/Pederson/another good OF)
2. Extending Olson at less than $30M (will probably not happen if he puts up two 5 WAR seasons)
3. If Olson is not extended a FA 1B needs to come available at the right time. We already stripped the farm for Olson, we can't repeat that in 2 years. I know there might be 1 year options like the deals made to Donaldson/Ozuna/etc. AA can not miss on those signings like he did on the pitchers outside of Morton.

It's a tough move. End of the day, if Freddie was gone, then solid moves, but a real good argument can be made that just keeping him would be better overall.

Enscheff said:
There are a few ignorant narratives floating around..

Olson is not a notable downgrade from Freeman. In 11 full seasons, Freeman has posted 5+ fWAR exactly 3 times. He is projected for 4.5-5 fWAR next year. Freeman is a good player, but this notion that he's some irreplaceable superstar is pure nonsense. Olson is going into his age 28 season, and is projected for fWAR values just under Freeman's projections. He probably isn't going to run another 16.8% K rate, but even if it regresses a bit he should still be a ~4 fWAR player.

The Braves owners are not going to "pocket" the savings. Freeman will likely earn $30M in 2022, while Olson will earn roughly $12M. That difference will almost certainly be used to upgrade the OF, and fill a hole in the rotation. Doesn't everyone remember that Morton is coming back from a broken leg? And Fried has blister problems? And Soroka can't even walk? The rotation needs a legit #4, and this savings should allow it to happen.

This move is not for 2022. This move is for 2024 and beyond, when someone is going to be paying Freeman $30M during his age 35+ seasons. Guess what? There will be a good bat at 1B available in 2024 that doesn't require a 5-6 year commitment, and AA will get that guy at that time.

For the 547th time, and extension does not make a trade better. Paying market rate for a guy is not something that makes trade value any higher, or the trade any better.

The cost for Olson stings, and we should have been prepared for it. I was hoping it could happen without giving up Lango/Harris, but I suppose that was naïve.
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CJC said:
OPTION 1:
2022 - Freeman 4.5-5.5 WAR - $30M
2023 - Freeman 4.0-5.0 WAR - $30M
2024 - Freeman 3.5-4.5 WAR - $30M
2025 - Freeman 3.0 WAR - $30M
2026 - Freeman 2.0 WAR - $30M
2027 - Freeman 1.5-2.0 WAR - $30M

That's an aggressive aging curve, no early retirement. It's not the worse case scenario obviously, but it's a bad projection for FF's value.

OPTION 2:
2022 - Olson 4.0-5.0 WAR - $12M
2023 - Olson 4.0-5.5 WAR - $20-2M
2024 - Reenter the 1B Market likely paying $35-40M for a 5 WAR hitter, or trying to get value, We really don't have an internal solution.

Basically we have traded 4 solid prospects for $18M payroll in 2022 and $8-10 in 2023.
We could've had Freeman at fair cost for 24-25 and an overpay in 26-27.
We trade that for uncertainty for 4 seasons now. Plus there will be additional acquisition cost for the 1B spot in 2024 unless Olson is extended.

KEYS to the deal -
1. Making GREAT use of the Payroll flexibility in 22 and 23. (re: two of Soler/Pederson/another good OF)
2. Extending Olson at less than $30M (will probably not happen if he puts up two 5 WAR seasons)
3. If Olson is not extended a FA 1B needs to come available at the right time. We already stripped the farm for Olson, we can't repeat that in 2 years. I know there might be 1 year options like the deals made to Donaldson/Ozuna/etc. AA can not miss on those signings like he did on the pitchers outside of Morton.

It's a tough move. End of the day, if Freddie was gone, then solid moves, but a real good argument can be made that just keeping him would be better overall.
Click to expand...

No, that aging curve isn't harsh at all...that's how 1B age. Literally all of them that aren't on PEDs.

The Braves don't need a 5 win guy at 1B...that's where this type of analysis falls apart. They need good players all over the roster, not just at 1B. There will always be a 2-3 win guy available for a short term deal at 1B every single off season. This year it's Rizzo.

Maybe the Braves develope a bat by 2024. Maybe Riley moves to 1B. Maybe another team needs to trade a 1B like the As just did.

The point is roster/payroll flexibility, which goes away when a team is paying a 37 year old 1B $30M to hopefully post 1 WAR.
 
Last edited:
Jeff Passan:

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement with All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman on a six-year, $180 million deal, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN .
 
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