May

[nsacpi]

With one game left, we are a game above .500 for the month of May (we were 2 under .500 in April). The month brought major regression from Pierzyenski (.374 OPS) and significant regression from Markakis (.693 OPS). But also significant positive regression from Maybin, who has an .822 OPS for the month. OPS numbers for the month include Simmons at .758, Peterson at .706, Freeman at .760. Freeman is the notable under-performer in the group. On balance I think our hitting slightly underperformed relative to its capabilities for the month. The addition of Uribe gives me hope we will pick it up. Of course we are not going to hit as well as we did in April either. That represents a significant offensive overperformance. Team OPS was .702 in April and .652 so far in May. We should settle somewhere in between for the rest of the season.

On the pitching side, the FIP numbers for our starters in May pretty much summarize the story. Miller 2.71, Folty 3.69, Wood, 3.03, Perez 3.50 (2.39 as a starter) and Teheran 4.29. As a group, I think their performance is a bit better than expected. In any given month, some starters will outperform while others will underperform. Jim Johnson and Avilan pitched very well in May and Grilli has gotten the job done. The rest of the pen is a shambles. If we can fix it, I think this team can play .500 or slightly better baseball the rest of the way in.

 

[thewupk]

If Maybin keeps performing he could be the best trade chip the Braves move at the deadline.

 

[Heyward]

If Maybin keeps performing he could be the best trade chip the Braves move at the deadline.

With our lack of hitting talent, im not sure i'd do that.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

If Maybin keeps performing he could be the best trade chip the Braves move at the deadline.

I think it's wrong to assume that just because someone is playing well they will or should automatically become a trade chip.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Really Maybin should be a trade chip only if we think this is a fluke. The Braves have a reasonable option for 2017 and I dont want to go back to a world of BJ like performance in center. Never again.

 

[thewupk]

With our lack of hitting talent, im not sure i'd do that.

I think Maybin is playing over his head. His BB% is way higher than his career norms and his ISO is a good bit above his career avg as well. I mean he's a career WRC+ 90 hitter. If we can get a good return on him I say it's a no brainer.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

True, but he could be our version of Pagan or Greg White too. Could be a cheap option for an outfield spot going forward.

 

[nsacpi]

I think Maybin is playing over his head. His BB% is way higher than his career norms and his ISO is a good bit above his career avg as well. I mean he's a career WRC+ 90 hitter. If we can get a good return on him I say it's a no brainer.

Maybe he is playing over his head. But let's think for a minute about the things that might allow us to distinguish a lucky hot streak from genuine improvement. The statistical item that is most likely to be a fluke would be a higher BABIP. But his BABIP this season is the same as his career average. The statistical item that is most likely to be a genuine improvement is a drop in the strikeout rate. That's down a percentage point from last year and 3 points from his career average. Encouraging but small potatoes.

The areas he has improved are in ISO and the walk rate. Those two are somewhere in between BABIP and strikeout rate in the spectrum of stats where a change over a couple months might indicate real improvement as opposed to luck. ISO so far is 35 points above career numbers. Walk rate is almost 4% above career numbers and almost 5% above last year's numbers.

I think it is too early to tell based on the stats.

In terms of what my eyes tell me from watching the game, he seems to have a much better approach than he did during his first few weeks of the season. Far fewer wild swings trying to pull pitches he shouldn't be trying to pull. Going up the middle a lot. We'll see if the new approach sticks. I think there is a good chance there is some real improvement. The things that distinguish an above average player at a position and a below average one are fairly small. If he can sustain say half of the apparent improvement in walk rate and ISO he becomes an above average major league center fielder. At least with respect to offense. The defensive side is another matter. He looks surprisingly clumsy and hesitant on defense to me.

 

[Heyward]

I think Maybin is playing over his head. His BB% is way higher than his career norms and his ISO is a good bit above his career avg as well. I mean he's a career WRC+ 90 hitter. If we can get a good return on him I say it's a no brainer.

Maybe but i wouldnt trade him just to get a bullpen arm in return and who is replacing him?

FA market is weak assuming we dont get Heyward/Justin/Cespedes.

 

[nsacpi]

Recent article on Maybin.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/cameron-maybin-wants-your-attention/

 

[Enscheff]

I think a lot of maybins walk rate comes from batting in front of the pitcher for the first couple weeks and being pitched around a bit. Let's see how his walk rate looks after spending a month in the 2 hole.

I doubt maybin suddenly turned into an 800 ops hitter, so if he can be sold as a solid offensive CFer, it would probably be wise to trade him.

 

[Heyward]

I think a lot of maybins walk rate comes from batting in front of the pitcher for the first couple weeks and being pitched around a bit. Let's see how his walk rate looks after spending a month in the 2 hole.

I doubt maybin suddenly turned into an 800 ops hitter, so if he can be sold as a solid offensive CFer, it would probably be wise to trade him.

And who are we replacing him with?

 

[nsacpi]

I think a lot of maybins walk rate comes from batting in front of the pitcher for the first couple weeks and being pitched around a bit. Let's see how his walk rate looks after spending a month in the 2 hole.

I doubt maybin suddenly turned into an 800 ops hitter, so if he can be sold as a solid offensive CFer, it would probably be wise to trade him.

I'd settle for a .750 OPS and league average defense from my center fielder.

 

[Enscheff]

And who are we replacing him with?

He is only controlled through 2016, so "who are we replacing him with" is irrelevant. Assuming, of course, that the team isn't in contention 2 months from now. If there is a reasonable chance at a playoff spot, then I would be against trading away any player contributing to the mlb club.

 

[Heyward]

He is only controlled through 2016, so "who are we replacing him with" is irrelevant. Assuming, of course, that the team isn't in contention 2 months from now. If there is a reasonable chance at a playoff spot, then I would be against trading away any player contributing to the mlb club.

He has a reasonable team option in 2017 at 9 million.

And trading him just because he's playing well is stupid, you still need good players.

 

[Enscheff]

He has a reasonable team option in 2017 at 9 million.

And trading him just because he's playing well is stupid, you still need good players.

There are two options, he either suddenly became a good player at age 28, or he is playing over his head right now. I'm guessing we are most likely seeing the best of Mr Maybin, so it is probably time to sell high on him.

All assuming the team is out of contention at the deadline, of course.

 

[50PoundHead]

Could be the Seitzer has been a big help to him. When I watch on Gameday, Maybin seems to have more than his share of longer ABs, so he appears to be making the pitcher work a bit.

 

[thethe]

I think Maybin is a case of it clicking later on in their career. There is something to be said of a player breaking out somewhere. After we have seen so many hitters absolutely suck in Atlanta I am not going to be quick to get rid of a player who is finally playing to his ability.

Again, Maybin was a former top 10 prospect. This level of play should not surprise anyone considering his ability and prior injury history. I'm keeping Maybin and putting him in RF next season.

 

[nsacpi]

If the opportunity to trade him comes up the question is how do you value him. As a .700 ops player, .750, higher?

 

[Heyward]

There are two options, he either suddenly became a good player at age 28, or he is playing over his head right now. I'm guessing we are most likely seeing the best of Mr Maybin, so it is probably time to sell high on him.

All assuming the team is out of contention at the deadline, of course.

So we should trade him for a couple bullpen arms?

No one is gonna trade anything significant for him and given we wont be in on Justin/Jason/Ces, might as well keep him next year.

Players have never gotten better late in their 20's before.

Im not saying he's untouchable but i dont know if i'd trade him just to trade him.