Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.

John Hart winning this power struggle would be the best of the worst case and not make it too bad that Snitker returned. You don't need to be fully into analytics but you do need to take them into account and blend them in with old school thoughts.
 
Enscheff said:
Lol well there you have it. If a few players from 20-40 years ago did it, we have nothing to worry about haha!
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Meta handpicked a few extreme examples.

But there are some more recent examples including Oliver Perez, and though maybe not at 5 certainly way too close Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, and Ubaldo Jimenez. GRanted it's not super likely, but if you look at the pitchers in your parameters (over 5 BB/9 at 24) with at least 100 IP since 2000, some of them had nice Major league careers. In fact of the group only McClung had a negative fWAR. So there's a decent chance Newcomb could be a good pitcher for osme year with an outside chance he becomes more than that.
 
At age 23, Gio Gonzalez had 5.1BBs/9, 9.9 K/9, and 1.3 HR/9 in 98.2 IP. At age 24, Newcomb had 5.1 BBs/9, 9.7 K/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 100 IP.

This is why you don't lock yourself into artificial limits and only look at age 24 guys.
 
zitothebrave said:
Meta handpicked a few extreme examples.

But there are some more recent examples including Oliver Perez, and though maybe not at 5 certainly way too close Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, and Ubaldo Jimenez. GRanted it's not super likely, but if you look at the pitchers in your parameters (over 5 BB/9 at 24) with at least 100 IP since 2000, some of them had nice Major league careers. In fact of the group only McClung had a negative fWAR. So there's a decent chance Newcomb could be a good pitcher for osme year with an outside chance he becomes more than that.
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I already posted the list of all pitchers who met that criteria the last 20 years. About 25% not to be a bust.

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7257

No matter how many tweaks I made to the parameters, the success rate was always right around 25%.

Age is arguably the most important stat of a pitcher considering their accelerated aging curves. The odds are stacked against Newk being anything, but he definitely needs to start the year in the rotation until Allard or Soroka or Gohara force him out.

Anyways, sorry for helping clv derail this thread.
 
Enscheff said:
Lol well there you have it. If a few players from 20-40 years ago did it, we have nothing to worry about haha!
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I think he was being funny.

But in reality, taking a 10 minute research you have the following who roughly match your criteria:

Kerry Wood

Francisco Liriano (twice after the age of 26 actually)

Hideo Nomo

Chan Ho Park

Kelvim Escobar

Dave Burba was pretty close to your criteria

Scott Erickson

Tom Gordon

Juan Guzman walked 4.9 at age 28

And this is just a 10 minute research going back to 97. I believe all of these guys posted at least one 4 WAR season while walking 5.0 batters or more by their 24th bday or later for some.
 
CyYoung31 said:
[tw]917155265191047168[/tw]

Hmmm
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If Liberty was going to sell the team then you're not going to see it just pop up all of a sudden to some random buyer. Look at recent sales of teams. You tend to have multiple interested bidders who go through rounds of cuts before one is eventually settled on. You're probably talking about a process that would take the better part of a year.
 
Enscheff said:
Lol well there you have it. If a few players from 20-40 years ago did it, we have nothing to worry about haha!
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enscheff, back at it again with the straw man. you asked for examples IN MLB HISTORY and you got them. did you actually not want the examples you asked for?

also no one said there's nothing to worry about. but the point is it can be and has been done. newcomb certainly has a shot.
 
I just looked up a picture of Doug Harris, and I swear it looks like Coppy just hit the steroids and changed his name. He is the non-weenie version of Coppy
 
smootness said:
You got owned, man. Just take it.
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Haha I sure did. He's probably more likely to have a career like these modern pitchers whose careers are actually applicable (my fault for being hasty and saying "history of baseball"):

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspl...1990-03-01&endDate=2017-11-01&filter=K/9|gt|9,BB/9%7Cgt%7C5,IP%7Cgt%7C100&position=P&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=17,-1&pg=0

But you all have convinced me. Newk will be fine. Rainbows and butterflies all around!
 
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