Minor League FINAL Thursday 4/4/19; One BS shy of a SWEEP

striker42 said:
I honestly hope you're right. I'd love to see Anderson come up and become an ace. However, walks have plagued him his entire Braves career. We've heard excuses ranging from him working on developing pitches to the umpires in the minors being bad. But the walks have remained. At some point you have to be skeptical.

Anderson will need to drop his walk rate to around 3 per 9 and keep his HR rate minuscule (difficult to do in the majors) to even have a chance at being a number 2 starter. If his BB rate sits around 4 (what I expect), you're looking at a number 4 starter. A guy not dissimilar from Newk or maybe what Jake Odorizzi was last year.
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Newcomb Minors Walk Rate per 9:

20 4.63 Rookie
21 3.68 A
22 5.03 AA
23 4.56 AA
24 5.15 AAA
5.13 Majors
25 4.45 Majors


Anderson

18 2.72 Rookie
19 4.66 A
20 3.70 AA


These are not similar walk rates or progressions.
 
Southcack77 said:
Newcomb Minors Walk Rate per 9:

20 4.63 Rookie
21 3.68 A
22 5.03 AA
23 4.56 AA
24 5.15 AAA
5.13 Majors
25 4.45 Majors


Anderson

18 2.72 Rookie
19 4.66 A
20 3.70 AA


These are not similar walk rates or progressions.
Click to expand...

Little bit deceptive with your Anderson stats. Anderson had 19.1 IP in AA last year and had a BB rate of 4.19 there. It was 3.60 in 100 IP at A+ last year.

I'll admit Newk's BB problem is more severe. Newk's minor league career BB/ IP was 4.78. As of today, Newk has a career 4.77 BB/IP at the major league level.

Coming into this year, Anderson had a career BB/9 of 3.86. Of starters that qualified in the majors last year, only 5 had a BB/9 higher than 3.86.

But I'm not saying Anderson will mirror Newk's numbers. He just fits the same mold. A high K pitcher who will walk too many to be consistent.
 
striker42 said:
Little bit deceptive with your Anderson stats. Anderson had 19.1 IP in AA last year and had a BB rate of 4.19 there. It was 3.60 in 100 IP at A+ last year.

I'll admit Newk's BB problem is more severe. Newk's minor league career BB/ IP was 4.78. As of today, Newk has a career 4.77 BB/IP at the major league level.

Coming into this year, Anderson had a career BB/9 of 3.86. Of starters that qualified in the majors last year, only 5 had a BB/9 higher than 3.86.

But I'm not saying Anderson will mirror Newk's numbers. He just fits the same mold. A high K pitcher who will walk too many to be consistent.
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age is an important consideration...Anderson being young for his level gives him more of a chance to improve his control by the time he's in his mid-20s.
 
nsacpi said:
age is an important consideration...Anderson being young for his level gives him more of a chance to improve his control by the time he's in his mid-20s.
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and it already isn’t newcomb’s...statistically or scout opinion wise.
 
striker42 said:
Little bit deceptive with your Anderson stats. Anderson had 19.1 IP in AA last year and had a BB rate of 4.19 there. It was 3.60 in 100 IP at A+ last year.

I'll admit Newk's BB problem is more severe. Newk's minor league career BB/ IP was 4.78. As of today, Newk has a career 4.77 BB/IP at the major league level.

Coming into this year, Anderson had a career BB/9 of 3.86. Of starters that qualified in the majors last year, only 5 had a BB/9 higher than 3.86.

But I'm not saying Anderson will mirror Newk's numbers. He just fits the same mold. A high K pitcher who will walk too many to be consistent.
Click to expand...


I just put the highest level obtained in the season given, but I can see where that might be confusing.

Anderson is just now hitting the age and experience level that Newcomb began his pro career with.

In contrast to Newcomb, Anderson make progress at 20 in lowering his BB rate almost a full walk per 9, while stepping up in level to High A and then AA.

There are many things that might end up derailing career short of the majors, but claiming he's similar to Newcomb is just inaccurate. If you want to say his walks are problematic, fine, but Newcomb is something of an extreme case and 3.7 B/9 at Age 20 is not an extreme case.

Hell, in the Braves org, it's not even remarkable.

Fried, Newcomb, Touki, Newk, Folty --- all arguably worse.
 
Decent start for Ynoa. Walked two guys in the first inning (his first 8 pitches were balls), but settled in after that. Didn't allow a hit in 4 IP. Total of 3 BB and 6 K.
 
Southcack77 said:
I just put the highest level obtained in the season given, but I can see where that might be confusing.

Anderson is just now hitting the age and experience level that Newcomb began his pro career with.

In contrast to Newcomb, Anderson make progress at 20 in lowering his BB rate almost a full walk per 9, while stepping up in level to High A and then AA.

There are many things that might end up derailing career short of the majors, but claiming he's similar to Newcomb is just inaccurate. If you want to say his walks are problematic, fine, but Newcomb is something of an extreme case and 3.7 B/9 at Age 20 is not an extreme case.

Hell, in the Braves org, it's not even remarkable.

Fried, Newcomb, Touki, Newk, Folty --- all arguably worse.
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he’s literally already improved his walk rate a good bit while being aggressively promoted at young ages. to suggest improving the rate further is very unlikely is just silly n
 
i think anderson’s potential poor spin rates are a way bigger concern with his prospective future.
 
I'm really excited to see Wright vs marlins and fried against Rockies next week. Hopefully these 2 can make the FO's decision on starting 5 tough when folty is ready
 
Southcack77 said:
I just put the highest level obtained in the season given, but I can see where that might be confusing.

Anderson is just now hitting the age and experience level that Newcomb began his pro career with.

In contrast to Newcomb, Anderson make progress at 20 in lowering his BB rate almost a full walk per 9, while stepping up in level to High A and then AA.

There are many things that might end up derailing career short of the majors, but claiming he's similar to Newcomb is just inaccurate. If you want to say his walks are problematic, fine, but Newcomb is something of an extreme case and 3.7 B/9 at Age 20 is not an extreme case.

Hell, in the Braves org, it's not even remarkable.

Fried, Newcomb, Touki, Newk, Folty --- all arguably worse.
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I hope you're right but we'll see. But you're right in that his walk rate isn't remarkable in the Braves org. That's what makes me doubt any of our pitchers ever becomes truly elite. Soroka's command was why I was so high on him and will be again if he can get past the shoulder issues.
 
Not bad for an IF turned pitcher

Hoekstra 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Clouse and Burrows should be fun to follow this year. Both could see some time in the major league pen.
 
Super said:
i think anderson’s potential poor spin rates are a way bigger concern with his prospective future.
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Might well be the case.

I'm not sure when this would start showing up, but his K rates and average allowed aren't making him look very hittable. Maybe he lives off secondaries or has enough velo to get it by AAers and that will fade. Dunno. But those numbers are still looking good so far. And the scouts don't seem very down on him despite whatever the issue might be with his spin rate.
 
Chico said:
Not bad for an IF turned pitcher

Hoekstra 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Clouse and Burrows should be fun to follow this year. Both could see some time in the major league pen.
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My guess is they will see time at some juncture. If and when deemed ready, I would rather see either than Tomlin.
 
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