Minor League Thread Part Deux

[Deester11]

For an organization who drafts nothing but pitching, it's rare when we actually get to see and track/watch promising pitching in our minors lately. With injuries to some, Caminiti and Ritchie seem to be on the same day which appears to be the only day worth tracking each week now. Anyone know Owen Murphy's status? He had TJ surgery 13 months ago.

With the positional player prospects being mostly awful, it's concerning.

Today we get a 23-year-old pitcher in Augusta, 31-year-old Jackson Stephens in Gwinnett, and Columbus hasn't released their matchups today. I guess Herick Hernandez could be one to watch tonight for Rome.

I'm not privy to the analytical approach the Braves use nowadays to assess talent. I'm sure there are more advance metrics than my feeble mind can comprehend, but IF by the chance the Braves are following close to the Dodgers/Padres analytical model, the Braves aren't following it. They must have gotten the answers to the fake test. I say that to say that they seem to favor athletically inclined pitchers who have one trajectory pitch that plays or will play at higher levels or multiple projectible pitches that are close IF they can harness command. We do see 4-pitch models like AJSS, Murphy and Schwelly (Cam has 4 too),

This has been the first year that I've gotten back to traveling a lot and from what I see, there are waaayyy too many AAAAA players that have been elevated in what has been an otherwise, OK farm. And before I'm inundated with "we've graduated this player and that", I suspect that we should not be surprised at all about having 1-2 players promoted who excel in a system in a given year. It's inexact just like scouting, but it is what it is.

I said all that to say, there are TWO known issues both with Pitchers and Positional Players in the Braves system.
Pitchers - Command. Secondary pitches.
Positional Players - Contact (Lack thereof). Pitch recognition.
Issues aside, there are players who are very solid and can contribute, but they are not generational, although they will contribute to a winning team.

Tier One Players - Should be good contributors.
Cam Caminiti - Makings of solid 2-3.
JR Ritchie - Makings of a solid 2-3.

Tier Two Players - If it clicks, should be good contributors.
Didier Fuentes - My pick to click. Ha. Needs seasoning in the worst way.

Tier Three Players - Talent galore. Volatile chance.
Jose Perdomo - Tim Hyers get ahold of him? Grrr. Saw early and late. Different hitter than early on.
Diego Tornes - Nuff said.

Tier 4 - Can be solid major leaguers.
Drue Hackenberg - Others are higher on him. I like him as a solid piece. But I see 4-5. Nothing wrong with that.
Garrett Baumann - Measureables. Tangibles. Check. Could move and be solid for years.
Lucas Braun - See Baumann.
Luis Guanipa - Gotta play. Looks like a new player after the injuries so far. Stats be damned.

Tier 5 - Injury and or stuff could stop their progress.
Carter Holton - Injured. What is he? I like him ok.
Herick Hernandez - Used to be the type we always saw. Soft tossing, locating, strike outs. Undersized. Enough to like.

Tier 6 - Some days you're blown away. Others...meh.
John Gil - gotta have more than speed.
Isaiah Drake - most improved, but still got a ways to go.

Now this list is not exhaustive and just a snap shot at where the system is. I would take the top 3 Padres prospects over just about any of the Braves prospects. Top 5 Dodgers...I'd take them all day. I'm not sure what the answer is and this is not a "bash the Braves" post, but as I post this, damn if the minors aren't a symptom of what happening in Atlanta.

 

[WaitingFor2017]

I'm not privy to the analytical approach the Braves use nowadays to assess talent. I'm sure there are more advance metrics than my feeble mind can comprehend, but IF by the chance the Braves are following close to the Dodgers/Padres analytical model, the Braves aren't following it. They must have gotten the answers to the fake test. I say that to say that they seem to favor athletically inclined pitchers who have one trajectory pitch that plays or will play at higher levels or multiple projectible pitches that are close IF they can harness command. We do see 4-pitch models like AJSS, Murphy and Schwelly (Cam has 4 too),

This has been the first year that I've gotten back to traveling a lot and from what I see, there are waaayyy too many AAAAA players that have been elevated in what has been an otherwise, OK farm. And before I'm inundated with "we've graduated this player and that", I suspect that we should not be surprised at all about having 1-2 players promoted who excel in a system in a given year. It's inexact just like scouting, but it is what it is.

I said all that to say, there are TWO known issues both with Pitchers and Positional Players in the Braves system.
Pitchers - Command. Secondary pitches.
Positional Players - Contact (Lack thereof). Pitch recognition.
Issues aside, there are players who are very solid and can contribute, but they are not generational, although they will contribute to a winning team.

Tier One Players - Should be good contributors.
Cam Caminiti - Makings of solid 2-3.
JR Ritchie - Makings of a solid 2-3.

Tier Two Players - If it clicks, should be good contributors.
Didier Fuentes - My pick to click. Ha. Needs seasoning in the worst way.

Tier Three Players - Talent galore. Volatile chance.
Jose Perdomo - Tim Hyers get ahold of him? Grrr. Saw early and late. Different hitter than early on.
Diego Tornes - Nuff said.

Tier 4 - Can be solid major leaguers.
Drue Hackenberg - Others are higher on him. I like him as a solid piece. But I see 4-5. Nothing wrong with that.
Garrett Baumann - Measureables. Tangibles. Check. Could move and be solid for years.
Lucas Braun - See Baumann.
Luis Guanipa - Gotta play. Looks like a new player after the injuries so far. Stats be damned.

Tier 5 - Injury and or stuff could stop their progress.
Carter Holton - Injured. What is he? I like him ok.
Herick Hernandez - Used to be the type we always saw. Soft tossing, locating, strike outs. Undersized. Enough to like.

Tier 6 - Some days you're blown away. Others...meh.
John Gil - gotta have more than speed.
Isaiah Drake - most improved, but still got a ways to go.

Now this list is not exhaustive and just a snap shot at where the system is. I would take the top 3 Padres prospects over just about any of the Braves prospects. Top 5 Dodgers...I'd take them all day. I'm not sure what the answer is and this is not a "bash the Braves" post, but as I post this, damn if the minors aren't a symptom of what happening in Atlanta.

I know you've been following very closely. Appreciate the response!

 

[Carp]

Have the Braves drafted anyone of note other than Caminiti since Dana Brown left?

I mean it's been 2 drafts so far. The 2023 class has some names but no one that has really taken off yet. 2024 crew has made a little bit of noise with Sinnard, Hernandez, Sears, Carey, and Hartman.

I will say that Dana Brown's last draft does look pretty terrific comparatively with Baldwin, Ritchie, Nacho, and Murphy. And a couple prospects from that class are at least on the radar

 

[WaitingFor2017]

Anything on Ian Mejia for Columbus? He went 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, only 2 K, 1 HR tonight.

On the season, he's got a 1.96 ERA for Columbus, 0.94 WHIP, and only 21 BB in 78 IP. Doesn't look like he strikes many people out though.

Herick Hernandez tonight:
4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K -- looks like a Houdini act.

 

[Deester11]

I know you've been following very closely. Appreciate the response!

It's been rough for sure. I'm a little spoiled and I'm just a guy who's been lucky enough to watch our system. I'm always lower than consensus, but it's rough going to games and seeing average ish talent at best.

Anything on Ian Mejia for Columbus? He went 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, only 2 K, 1 HR tonight.

On the season, he's got a 1.96 ERA for Columbus, 0.94 WHIP, and only 21 BB in 78 IP. Doesn't look like he strikes many people out though.

Herick Hernandez tonight:
4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K -- looks like a Houdini act.

I have no patience for smoke and mirrors and once in a blue moon performances. Mejia had been on the "maybe," "could be," squint hard list forever. The type you can call up and pray for 3 good innings. Stuff is not bad, but I'm just meh with him. Herick is either good, terrible or decent depending on when you see him. I like him. Not enough though.