Minor League Thread Part Deux

Hudson2 said:
It'd be nice to hit on a 1st round pick for a change.
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Definitely due for it. The philosophy may or may not have shifted after last year, but I'm hoping for highest upside (BPA) with the first few picks. I'm pretty sure they'll spread it out though.
The last 3 drafts, I'd say they gambled on said upside in the latter rounds and have been pretty "meh" about signing those dart throws, but a few where highly though of:

In 2025, a few players I like:
  • Round 10: Kade Woods, LSU
  • Round 18: Aiven Cabral (RHP, Northeastern)
This class is looking good so far (I like every one of these players, even with Lodise's ups and downs:
  • Round 1 (Pick 22): Tate Southisene, SS, Basic Academy (NV)
  • Round 2 (Pick 60): Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
  • Round 3 (Pick 96): Cody Miller, SS, East Tennessee State
  • Round 4 (Pick 127): Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
  • Round 4 Compensation (Pick 136): Dixon Williams, 2B, East Carolina
  • Round 5 (Pick 157): Conor Essenburg, OF, Lincoln-Way West HS (IL)

In 2024, a few players I really like:
  • Round 10 (308): Owen Hackman (RHP, Loyola Marymount)
  • Round 11 (338): Patrick Clohisy (OF, Saint Louis)
  • Round 12 (368): Cayman Goode (RHP, Douglas Freeman HS) — Signed over-slot
  • Round 18 (548): Jake Steels (OF, Cal Poly)
  • Round 20 (608): Eric Hartman (OF, Holy Trinity Academy - This guy alone makes a great case to sign the players you want for the slot money you're willing to pay.
Pretty good class with Cam being a BPA at the time. Holton hasn't pitched, Sinnard has flashes, Hernandez is Jeckyll and Hyde and Montgomery has turned himself into a damn good defensive catcher. At the time, this was viewed as Cam and a high upside draft.
  • Round 1 (Pick 24): Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
  • Round 2 (Pick 62): Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt
  • Round 3 (Pick 99): Luke Sinnard, RHP, Indiana
  • Round 4 (Pick 129): Herick Hernandez, LHP, Miami
  • Round 5 (Pick 161): Nick Montgomery, C, Cypress HS (CA
In 2023, darts. All of em.
  • Round 10-14: Pier-Olivier Boucher (OF), Jace Grady (OF), Brady Day (2B, did not sign), Will Verdung (3B), and Mitch Farris (LHP).
  • Round 15-20: David Rodriguez (RHP), Isaac Gallegos (RHP), Kade Kern (OF), Cam Magee (SS), Riley Frey (LHP), and Will King (C)
This draft was an entire WTF after Waldrep. I liked him and still do. Others...draw your own conclusions. Ha.
 
Southcack77 said:
I guess Shewmake was marginal and the Wake Forest guys certainly were, but can't complain about performance of the last five much.

Murphy has a low ceiling but is progressing all right.
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Owen ? You really think low cieling ? I was thinking the sky was the limit with him if he can establish elite command …but I’m no Deester…
 
We only have data for 1 start for Murphy this year, which was 5/2. In that start his fastball was getting elite movement, averaging 19" of IVB and 6" of glove side run. Even with below average velocity, that fastball is pretty great. The curve was pretty great too. The slider flashed plus at times, but was very inconsistent. The changeup was just flat out bad. He threw one changeup that had mlb average movement. I don't know what they need to do with his change to get more movement, but it's basically a meatball with it's current movement profile.

I'm not sure why his command has vanished. Maybe it's a mechanical issue. May be they're having him work on something specific. But there is plenty enough there to dream on.
 
Gwinnett rained out last night. They'll have a double header today. Murphy slated to start game 1.

Columbus lost 6-7 to Biloxi last night. Espinoza started at DH and went 1-4 with a homer, improving his season OPS to .925. Taverez went 2-4 with a homer, raising his season OPS to .759


Rome had a double header:

Game 1: W, 7-5. Dixon Williams 2-3 with a homer and 4 RBIs, Hartman 0-2 with 2 BBs. Gil 1-3. Drake 1-4. Miller 1-3

Game 2: L, 5-6. Drake 1-3 with 2 BBs. Gil 1-2 with a 2b. Hartman 0-3, with 1 BB. Miller 3-4.

.
Augusta: L, 7-13. Southisene 0-4 with 1 BB and 1 K. Lodise 1-4 with a homer and 3 ks. Guanipa 1-4 with a homer. Mateo 2-4 with a triple. McIntyre 2-4 with a homer.
 
I still am not sure what to make of Lizandro Espinoza. His history says we should not expect much of anything, but he just continues to hit since arriving in AA. Dating back to last season, he now has a line of .263/.369/.526 (.895 OPS) in 37 games and 160 PAs in AA. It's still every bit a SSS, but it's a better stretch of performance than any time in his career to date. He's got a reputation for a being a good defender at SS, so if the improvements in contact and power are legit, he could be interesting.

Dixon Williams' stock is rising fast as well, as he continues to stay hot to start his season. He has 5 homers and a 1.041 OPS in 56 PAs to start the season, while he is walking (16%) nearly as much as he is striking out (19.6%). He has spent time at 5 different positions so far, with the bulk of that work coming at 1b and 2b.


The pitching continues to lag behind the hitting to start the season, as there are not many positive results so far. The highlights are Ritchie, Fuentes, Hernandez, Cam, Sears, and Bagwell, but really it's Ritchie and Fuentes doing the heavy lifting here. The staff ERAs in Augusta, Rome, and Columbus are all over 5.00, which is a sharp contrast from a year ago.

Waiting to get see some results from the FCL. I haven't seen any posts so far.
 
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Carp said:
I still am not sure what to make of Lizandro Espinoza. His history says we should not expect much of anything, but he just continues to hit since arriving in AA. Dating back to last season, he now has a line of .263/.369/.526 (.895 OPS) in 37 games and 160 PAs in AA. It's still every bit a SSS, but it's a better stretch of performance than any time in his career to date. He's got a reputation for a being a good defender at SS, so if the improvements in contact and power are legit, he could be interesting.

Dixon Williams' stock is rising fast as well, as he continues to stay hot to start his season. He has 5 homers and a 1.041 OPS in 56 PAs to start the season, while he is walking (16%) nearly as much as he is striking out (19.6%). He has spent time at 5 different positions so far, with the bulk of that work coming at 1b and 2b.


The pitching continues to lag behind the hitting to start the season, as there are not many positive results so far. The highlights are Ritchie, Fuentes, Hernandez, Cam, Sears, and Bagwell, but really it's Ritchie and Fuentes doing the heavy lifting here. The staff ERAs in Augusta, Rome, and Columbus are all over 5.00, which is a sharp contrast from a year ago.

Waiting to get see some results from the FCL. I haven't seen any posts so far.
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I looked at some of the FCL stats thus far yesterday… nothing much of note yet.
 
Deester11 said:
Definitely due for it. The philosophy may or may not have shifted after last year, but I'm hoping for highest upside (BPA) with the first few picks. I'm pretty sure they'll spread it out though.
The last 3 drafts, I'd say they gambled on said upside in the latter rounds and have been pretty "meh" about signing those dart throws, but a few where highly though of:

In 2025, a few players I like:
  • Round 10: Kade Woods, LSU
  • Round 18: Aiven Cabral (RHP, Northeastern)
This class is looking good so far (I like every one of these players, even with Lodise's ups and downs:
  • Round 1 (Pick 22): Tate Southisene, SS, Basic Academy (NV)
  • Round 2 (Pick 60): Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
  • Round 3 (Pick 96): Cody Miller, SS, East Tennessee State
  • Round 4 (Pick 127): Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
  • Round 4 Compensation (Pick 136): Dixon Williams, 2B, East Carolina
  • Round 5 (Pick 157): Conor Essenburg, OF, Lincoln-Way West HS (IL)

In 2024, a few players I really like:
  • Round 10 (308): Owen Hackman (RHP, Loyola Marymount)
  • Round 11 (338): Patrick Clohisy (OF, Saint Louis)
  • Round 12 (368): Cayman Goode (RHP, Douglas Freeman HS) — Signed over-slot
  • Round 18 (548): Jake Steels (OF, Cal Poly)
  • Round 20 (608): Eric Hartman (OF, Holy Trinity Academy - This guy alone makes a great case to sign the players you want for the slot money you're willing to pay.
Pretty good class with Cam being a BPA at the time. Holton hasn't pitched, Sinnard has flashes, Hernandez is Jeckyll and Hyde and Montgomery has turned himself into a damn good defensive catcher. At the time, this was viewed as Cam and a high upside draft.
  • Round 1 (Pick 24): Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
  • Round 2 (Pick 62): Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt
  • Round 3 (Pick 99): Luke Sinnard, RHP, Indiana
  • Round 4 (Pick 129): Herick Hernandez, LHP, Miami
  • Round 5 (Pick 161): Nick Montgomery, C, Cypress HS (CA
In 2023, darts. All of em.
  • Round 10-14: Pier-Olivier Boucher (OF), Jace Grady (OF), Brady Day (2B, did not sign), Will Verdung (3B), and Mitch Farris (LHP).
  • Round 15-20: David Rodriguez (RHP), Isaac Gallegos (RHP), Kade Kern (OF), Cam Magee (SS), Riley Frey (LHP), and Will King (C)
This draft was an entire WTF after Waldrep. I liked him and still do. Others...draw your own conclusions. Ha.
Click to expand...
If you look at the MLB Draft tracker, it's pretty illuminating. My take away from looking at what the Braves have done over the years versus MLB competitors is that it is about the closest thing to a complete crap shoot that you'll find. Even the top of the top in the first round contains no guarantees. It seems as if the Braves best success has come from guys further down the rounds after round 1. You can look at an individual pick and say that it was a bad selection for whatever reason (and I've done it). But if you don't stop there but look at who was selected with the 20 or so picks after that selection it can be pretty interesting. If the Braves picked a bust at #26 in the first round but the next 20 picks were all busts as well, then it's more a reflection of scarcity than lack of evaluation.

I think there can be better guessers vs bad guessers (It looks like the Frank Wren era was especially filled with bad guesses). But anyone who tries to tell you there is some kind of scientific process is likely misleading you or themselves or both.

I wonder if instruction isn't more important than actual selection. Plus, could some out of the box thinking like putting all your International signees into an intensive language class learning English as part of their training process be effective? Does the language barrier have an negative effect on players trying to establish themselves in learning to play in what to them is a foreign country.
 
Went to check FCL scores to see if Tornes, Sinnard or McKenzie were debuting. There answer is no, but the other news -- the Braves FCL pitching staff just walked NINE and gave up 10 runs in the first inning. Incredible.
 
LF Michael Martinez remains the only real name of interest on that FCL roster that's playing. He's off to a good start, came into today hitting .375/.588/.500 with a line drive single added to those in the first inning today. Past that, it's hard to see much interesting.
 
I think the Braves draft selections slot pretty much how you would expect.

The top 10 guys generally all have been competent major league players or better while healthy.

11-20 is smaller group but somewhat less distinguished.

21-30 starts getting more in the way of complete busts, and overall success rate down.

30+ it gets grim. Hits here and there but mostly chaff.

Obviously if you compare a pick to everyone that was drafted afterwards, it's pretty likely you will find soneone that was more productive. Good luck showing that's anything other than hindsight.

I think the nature of the draft too means that late first round picks means you've exhausted a lot of best tools guys and the tendency is to think about floors ... while later in draft you are taking flyers on kids whose ceilings aren't established. But three of those might fail whereas your lower ceiling guy might be in your 20-30 man roster.
 
zbhargrove said:
Much better go around from Owen in his second AAA start:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2052885580707512372
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This is why I say velocity isn't super concerning to me. Obviously it helps, and there are a lot more TOR starters throwing 94+ than there are throwing 92. But a fastball getting 20+ inches of IVB (and another 7" of arm side run) is gonna play well no matter what, as long as you can command it somewhat well.
 
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