Minor league thread

clvclv said:
One way to know someone's no longer much of a prospect?

When they're hitting over .300 and "only 1 k" is an accomplishment.
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Lol, his k rate is the stat to watch with him. You disagree? I certainly think he's in danger of never making it, but he is only 23 at AAA, and that's with a lost year of development
 
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msstate7 said:
Lol, his k rate is the stat to watch with him. You disagree? I certainly think he's in danger of never making it, but he is only 23 at AAA, and that's with a lost year of development
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I think K rate is a secondary stat to watch. Primary on Walters should be BABIP. With BABIP usually hovering around .300 on average his constant .360 -.400 BABIP was seen as unsustainable at the upper levels. Last year his BABIP was a career low .341. With a high k rate that made many think 4th or 5th outfielder. This year (small sample) the BABIP is up to .400 again. That probably indicates his high K rate is approach. He has a unique ability to square up the baseball when he isn't getting fooled. Since he plays a premium defensive position, I can live with a high strike out rate if the BABIP is exceptional. A .250 .300 .400 slash line for a competent defensive CF would look pretty good in ATL right now. The high BABIP sort of makes the high K rate from a poor approach tolerable. If he manages to pull a Riley and get his approach figured out cutting down the Ks, he could still be an above average regular even with BABIP regression.
 
WE've been told waters' approach is awful. I don't watch those games.

It's tough to know if the Ks are coming because he's deep in counts or he's swinging and missing a ton. I'm sure all of those stats are somewhere.

he's also a switch hitter and that requires more maintenance. He does hit better from the Left side and that is a positive.

Maybe he's a guy that needs to fail to get it into his head that he needs to change. He is very talented.

I do agree with OB above that if he's the CF it lowers the pressure on his bat. Not sure who is considered a better CF between him and Harris.
 
I’ve heard nothing special about water’s batted ball profile (unlike Harris, who we always hear about his 111+ mph exit velocities) that suggests he is any more likely than any other hitter to have an abnormally high BABIP at the MLB level. No mentions of notable exit velocity, no excellent line drive rates, or barrel rates, nothing. Meanwhile, he just tumbled down prospect lists, but since he’s all there is, folks still hang hopes on him…as if “a lost development year” wasn’t experienced by literally every other prospect on the planet.

I agree with folks who are watching his K rate almost exclusively. Everything else we have access to is just noise.

He’s probably 4th/5th OFer fodder at this point.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
Waters is a better Braxton Davidson. Someone to dream on but will never amount to anything.
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I've refrained from much of the dream weaver talk when it comes to Waters. I agree with the posts about 4th OF'er, always potentially more. Once he let's go of the legend in his own mind...it's possible. I've posted this since rookie ball. And Braxton...just ouch.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Waters is a better Braxton Davidson. Someone to dream on but will never amount to anything.
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A much better Braxton Davidson. Davidson best BABIP was .360. Waters exceeded that every year with the exception of last year. Davidson k'd at least 135 times every full season of his career which never advanced beyond A+. Waters didn't exceed that level until he reached AA and AAA.

En. I haven't looked at batted ball profile, but the Waters BABIP debate reminds me of the Martin Prado average debate when he was in the minors. Doubters keep saying it is unsustainable based upon the peripherals, yet year after year the unsustainable is sustained. Whatever the reason, Waters pretty consistently has a BABIP well above league average. He is either experiencing an ungodly consistent lucky streak or he is doing something to produce it. My guess is he is pitch guessing. When he guesses right he makes really good contact. When he guesses wrong, he K's. Maybe if he stops guessing the BABIP will drop.
 
Wait...is someone claiming high BABIP in MiLB is a good sign for a player moving forward? I am extremely confused by the handwave logic that high BABIP means they guessed right...

I am also extremely confused by the Prado comps, and somehow suggesting he rocked very high BABIPs in MiLB. In 2006/2007, Prado's AA/AAA BABIPs were .340, .310, .343. His career MLB BABIP was .310...a very typical number. There was absolutely nothing to be learned by Prado's very ordinary BABIPs.

Sorry, I've never seen this logic applied to projecting MiLB players, and I don't see any consistency in the train of thought. I think almost every analyst on the planet would agree that a .792 OPS boosted by a .400 BABIP is not good...at all.
 
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Enscheff said:
Wait...is someone claiming high BABIP in MiLB is a good sign for a player moving forward? I am extremely confused by the handwave logic that high BABIP means they guessed right...

I am also extremely confused by the Prado comps, and somehow suggesting he rocked very high BABIPs in MiLB. In 2006/2007, Prado's AA/AAA BABIPs were .340, .310, .343. His career MLB BABIP was .310...a very typical number. There was absolutely nothing to be learned by Prado's very ordinary BABIPs.

Sorry, I've never seen this logic applied to projecting MiLB players, and I don't see any consistency in the train of thought. I think almost every analyst on the planet would agree that a .792 OPS boosted by a .400 BABIP is not good...at all.
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Martin Prado average was the debate I used to see when he was in the minors. "Average power. Average speed. He's only valuable if he hits for Average and he won't do that in the upper levels and certainly not in Atlanta." Yet Prado kept hitting at every level.

Same sort of thing with Waters and BABIP. "It's unsustainable." Except He's been pretty consistent.
 
Jesus. I wasn’t saying waters was Braxton. Just be reminded me of him. We had a crappy system when he was coming up with Jose. So we all kept hoping and praying he would figure it out. We have a very thin system again so we are all hoping and praying waters figures it out. No need for some analytical comparison.
 
OcalaBrave said:
Martin Prado average was the debate I used to see when he was in the minors. "Average power. Average speed. He's only valuable if he hits for Average and he won't do that in the upper levels and certainly not in Atlanta." Yet Prado kept hitting at every level.

Same sort of thing with Waters and BABIP. "It's unsustainable." Except He's been pretty consistent.
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Waters is striking out 31% of the time, rarely walks, and doesn't have much power. So no, he won't hit at the MLB level unless almost all of that changes.
 
Jesse Franklin had Tommy John. I would assume he’d be back next year since he’s a position player, but not sure how that timeline works out.
 
Enscheff said:
I’ve heard nothing special about water’s batted ball profile (unlike Harris, who we always hear about his 111+ mph exit velocities) that suggests he is any more likely than any other hitter to have an abnormally high BABIP at the MLB level. No mentions of notable exit velocity, no excellent line drive rates, or barrel rates, nothing. Meanwhile, he just tumbled down prospect lists, but since he’s all there is, folks still hang hopes on him…as if “a lost development year” wasn’t experienced by literally every other prospect on the planet.

I agree with folks who are watching his K rate almost exclusively. Everything else we have access to is just noise.

He’s probably 4th/5th OFer fodder at this point.
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FG reported last year other teams info on him was an insanely high barrel % and good exit velos. But they didn’t get that from us, it was collected from other teams info.
 
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