Minor league thread

clvclv said:
Can you (or any of the analytically-advanced crowd, for that matter) post an FV chart?

45, 40+, 40 range SPs and hitters are the only ones with "value" in trades, right?

(Updating my chart with the new rankings.)
Click to expand...

The farm ranking tab has a dollar value listed for each prospect type.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects...ranking?sort=-1,1&team=&type=100&filter=&pos=

Now obviously those dollar values aren’t exact for every prospect, and the small sample of FV 70 prospects over the years makes that error bar large, but I think it does an excellent job showing the value tiers prospects fall into.

Trade packages typically sum up to something close to the surplus value of the MLB player, and really valuable MLB players typically require a single prospect worth more than half of the surplus value.
 
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clvclv said:
Can you (or any of the analytically-advanced crowd, for that matter) post an FV chart?

45, 40+, 40 range SPs and hitters are the only ones with "value" in trades, right?

(Updating my chart with the new rankings.)
Click to expand...

FV is on the Fangraphs list

EDIT: I get what you're saying now
 
I think Grissom has been very underrated. What he is doing should be opening more eyes. I think he should easily be a top 50 prospect at this point.

A+ ball this year:

.312/.404/.487
9.3% BB rate
11.6% K rate
.332 BABIP
11 homers, 55 RBI, 20 SB
.404 wOBA, 145 wRC+

Compare that to what Harris did in his A+ year:
.294/.362/.436
8.3% BB rate
18.1% K rate
.349 BABIP
7 homers, 64 RBI, 27 SB
.349 wOBA, 114 wRC+

In his 7 game SSS to AA Grissom's tearing the cover off the ball and has continued his 40+ game on base streak.

Granted Harris was a year younger for the stats above. Also, the defensive position murkiness also probably keeps Grissom a rung lower but I still think he should be a top 50 prospect.
 
zbhargrove said:
I think Grissom has been very underrated. What he is doing should be opening more eyes. I think he should easily be a top 50 prospect at this point.

A+ ball this year:

.312/.404/.487
9.3% BB rate
11.6% K rate
.332 BABIP
11 homers, 55 RBI, 20 SB
.404 wOBA, 145 wRC+

Compare that to what Harris did in his A+ year:
.294/.362/.436
8.3% BB rate
18.1% K rate
.349 BABIP
7 homers, 64 RBI, 27 SB
.349 wOBA, 114 wRC+

In his 7 game SSS to AA Grissom's tearing the cover off the ball and has continued his 40+ game on base streak.

Granted Harris was a year younger for the stats above. Also, the defensive position murkiness also probably keeps Grissom a rung lower but I still think he should be a top 50 prospect.
Click to expand...

The problem with jumping Grissom up the lists is probably something we don't usually see in prospect rankings - the makeup of the MLB roster likely hurts him. If he can't stick at SS, he literally has nowhere to play in a couple years if he's still in the organization. He's not going to stay on the dirt if he can't handle SS defensively - even if Riley isn't extended. His only path to playing time in Atlanta currently appears to be as Dansby's replacement or switching his position to LF.

I realize that doesn't typically affect prospect rankings, but that has to be part of the case with Grissom because he's probably not nearly as attractive a prospect if he winds up in LF and is a little light on power.
 
clvclv said:
The problem with jumping Grissom up the lists is probably something we don't usually see in prospect rankings - the makeup of the MLB roster likely hurts him. If he can't stick at SS, he literally has nowhere to play in a couple years if he's still in the organization. He's not going to stay on the dirt if he can't handle SS defensively - even if Riley isn't extended. His only path to playing time in Atlanta currently appears to be as Dansby's replacement or switching his position to LF.

I realize that doesn't typically affect prospect rankings, but that has to be part of the case with Grissom because he's probably not nearly as attractive a prospect if he winds up in LF and is a little light on power.
Click to expand...

He hasn't been moved yet, though... and if he moves, its more likely to be 3B or 2B IMO... not OF. The MLB team makeup should have zero to do with his prospect rank.
 
zbhargrove said:
He hasn't been moved yet, though... and if he moves, its more likely to be 3B or 2B IMO... not OF. The MLB team makeup should have zero to do with his prospect rank.
Click to expand...

You just refuse to read entire posts, don't you? What part of "that doesn't typically affect prospect rankings" did you misunderstand?

Moving Grissom to 2B or 3B is useless if he remains a Brave - which All-Star (Albies or Riley) that's under control for the next several years do you plan to move to get him on the field?

You made the case that Grissom's numbers are more impressive than Harris' were, and it's pretty tough to argue numbers. What other reason could there be for not moving him up the lists? Maybe they don't like his Dad.
 
Alot of these prospect list and rankings factor in upside. I'm not sure Grissom has the explosive tools that many ranked above him do. He may be more of a high floor guy than a future star, which is fine. You'll fine plenty of impressive stat lines in the minors for guys who aren't even ranked. Also isn't Grissom older than Harris? That's factored in too.
 
clvclv said:
The problem with jumping Grissom up the lists is probably something we don't usually see in prospect rankings - the makeup of the MLB roster likely hurts him. If he can't stick at SS, he literally has nowhere to play in a couple years if he's still in the organization. He's not going to stay on the dirt if he can't handle SS defensively - even if Riley isn't extended. His only path to playing time in Atlanta currently appears to be as Dansby's replacement or switching his position to LF.

I realize that doesn't typically affect prospect rankings, but that has to be part of the case with Grissom because he's probably not nearly as attractive a prospect if he winds up in LF and is a little light on power.
Click to expand...

Riley has 3 years of control remaining. It isn't a lock that we will retain him. And even if we do, he is probably better suited going full DH in less than 4 years anyways. I don't know why Grissom wouldn't be an option at 3b. Bat looks like it will carry at any position.
 
clvclv said:
You just refuse to read entire posts, don't you? What part of "that doesn't typically affect prospect rankings" did you misunderstand?

Moving Grissom to 2B or 3B is useless if he remains a Brave - which All-Star (Albies or Riley) that's under control for the next several years do you plan to move to get him on the field?

You made the case that Grissom's numbers are more impressive than Harris' were, and it's pretty tough to argue numbers. What other reason could there be for not moving him up the lists? Maybe they don't like his Dad.
Click to expand...

No I read the post... I saw your "doesn't typically affect prospect ranking." Therefore you are suggesting in this case it is affecting it... and I'm saying that's BS. Or it should be. Thanks for the smartass comment though. He may or may not ever play for the Braves, but it certainly behooves the Braves to keep him in the IF as long as possible for trade value since that is his most likely use.
 
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NYCBrave said:
Alot of these prospect list and rankings factor in upside. I'm not sure Grissom has the explosive tools that many ranked above him do. He may be more of a high floor guy than a future star, which is fine. You'll fine plenty of impressive stat lines in the minors for guys who aren't even ranked. Also isn't Grissom older than Harris? That's factored in too.
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Yes, but still very young for his level. Harris is the youngest guy in the majors. Grissom's speed and hit tools are both pretty loud. And he has the frame to develop above average power. That is already starting to show itself.
 
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Unfortunately, as the All-Stars start getting more expensive, the Braves are going to have to make some hard decisions just like they did with Freddie.
If the salaries are going to force the window to close prematurely, the Braves are going to have to move on.

I was just thinking the other day, With Fried, Wright and Strider making a pretty dominant statement this year as being the big three, what would the market be for Anderson/Soroka assuming Soroka proves he is healthy?

And if I'm picking between Riley or Albies, Acuna, Olson and Riley are anchoring my lineup and I'm getting vets/kids to play everywhere else. Riley is proving last year wasn't a fluke. I suspect he will be looking at a pretty big pay day relatively soon.
 
OcalaBrave said:
Unfortunately, as the All-Stars start getting more expensive, the Braves are going to have to make some hard decisions just like they did with Freddie.
If the salaries are going to force the window to close prematurely, the Braves are going to have to move on.

I was just thinking the other day, With Fried, Wright and Strider making a pretty dominant statement this year as being the big three, what would the market be for Anderson/Soroka assuming Soroka proves he is healthy?

And if I'm picking between Riley or Albies, Acuna, Olson and Riley are anchoring my lineup and I'm getting vets/kids to play everywhere else. Riley is proving last year wasn't a fluke. I suspect he will be looking at a pretty big pay day relatively soon.
Click to expand...
Soroka is still very young. If he looks strong coming back, I think there is opportunity to lock him up long term to a very team friendly contract.
 
zbhargrove said:
Yes, but still very young for his level. Harris is the youngest guy in the majors. Grissom's speed and hit tools are both pretty loud. And he has the frame to develop above average power. That is already starting to show itself.
Click to expand...

That's fair. There's also the fact that he was an 11th round pick, and the lists usually take pedigree into account. So he's got more to prove in the eyes of the talent rankers.
 
NYCBrave said:
That's fair. There's also the fact that he was an 11th round pick, and the lists usually take pedigree into account. So he's got more to prove in the eyes of the talent rankers.
Click to expand...

I think the 11th round pick is the real reason here. But considering we had to go well over slot to get him to sign him, he has more pedigree than most would realize
 
OcalaBrave said:
Unfortunately, as the All-Stars start getting more expensive, the Braves are going to have to make some hard decisions just like they did with Freddie.
If the salaries are going to force the window to close prematurely, the Braves are going to have to move on.

I was just thinking the other day, With Fried, Wright and Strider making a pretty dominant statement this year as being the big three, what would the market be for Anderson/Soroka assuming Soroka proves he is healthy?

And if I'm picking between Riley or Albies, Acuna, Olson and Riley are anchoring my lineup and I'm getting vets/kids to play everywhere else. Riley is proving last year wasn't a fluke. I suspect he will be looking at a pretty big pay day relatively soon.
Click to expand...

That's why Grissom would SERIOUSLY shoot up the rankings lists if he could remain at SS - IMO.

If you knew for sure you had an in-house replacement for Dansby there's at least a chance you could buy out Riley's first three free-agent years and spend less than a Swanson extension will cost. If Grissom can't stay at SS, Alex is going to have to make the kind of Freeman decision you mention all over again - does he give up any hope of extending Riley to keep from having Arcia and/or a veteran SS on one year deals for a while since there's no other SS on the horizon?

Extending Dansby is certainly going to be less expensive than try to work out something long-term with Riley or Fried if you don't do it this winter. My concern is that (for as much as I like Dansby) it's going to be easier to replace him than either of the other two while you still have Acuna and Albies under control.

You really hate to give up Swanson's defense, but maybe the "answer" is to spend the money on locking up Riley and Fried until the end of the Albies deal and cross your fingers that Grissom will stick - who knows???
 
The Braves should no doubt look at locking up Riley and Fried this offseason. If Grissom really progresses the rest of the year in AA then you could probably live with Arcia for a few months to give Grissom a little more time but they’ll have to get a real LF with losing Dansbys offense from this year.
 
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