MINORS FINAL 7/29: NO-FRILLS TUESDAY

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
TUESDAY BOXES LINK

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CLASS AAA

Gwinnett 6, Scranton/WB 5

3-run ninth!
SP: Texeira 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K.
WP: Z. Stewart (5-3) 1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K.
Beato (Save, 4) 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K.
Pastornicky 4-5, 2B, 2 R, 3 RBIs.
Bethancourt 1-4, 2B, R, SB.
Boggs 1-3, RBI.
Terdoslavich 2-5, 2 RBIs.

CLASS AA

Mississippi 4, Pensacola 3

WP: Weber (4-4) 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K.
Cunniff 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.
R. Kelly (Save, 2) 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K.
Peraza 2-3, 2 R, 3B, RBI, SB.
Kubitza 0-0, R, 3 BB, SB.
Scuhlehuber 2-3, R.
Rohm 2-4, 2 RBIs.

ADVANCED CLASS A

Lynchburg 4, Wilmington 2

SP: Watts 7.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K.
WP: Cabrera (1-0) 0.2 IP, 0 H, 1 K.
Wilson (Save, 13) 1 IP, 0 H, 2 K.
Martinez 1-4, 2B, 2 RBIs.
Ahrens 1-3, 2B, R, RBI.
Landoni 2-3, RBI.

CLASS A

West Virginia 4, Rome 3 (10)

SP: Janas 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K.
LP: M. Sims (0-1) 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K.
Lien 1-3, RBI.
Schrader 2-4, HR (8th), RBI.
Godfrey 1-5, SB.

SHORT-SEASON

Kingsport 6, Danville 2

LP: Povse (0-2) 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K.
Kinman 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.
Albies 1-4.
F. Sanchez 2-4.
Obregon 1-3, 2 R, 2 BB.
Edgerton 2-3, 2 BB.

GCL Braves 1, GCL Tigers 0 (2nd, suspended)

SP: Fulenchek 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K.
Dykstra 1-1, RBI.

DSL Braves 7, DSL Blue Jays 6

SP: Mejia 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.
WP: Heredia (3-1) 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K.
Moreno (Save, 10) 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K.
T. Josephina 3-5, R, SB.
R. Perez 3-4, 3B, R, 2 RBIs.
Willems 1-4, 2B, RBI.
Jan Guerrero 1-5, RBI.
 
Peraza 3-4, 2 R, 3B, SB.
Possible he will be ready much earlier than anyone thought at the start of the season.
 
yeezus said:
Peraza 3-4, 2 R, 3B, SB.
Possible he will be ready much earlier than anyone thought at the start of the season.
Click to expand...

It's been a good year for a lot of our middle IF prospects with Peraza clearly at the top of the list. Reyes, Castro, and Camargo have all exceeded expectations in my book.
 
You absolutely have to get this kid on the roster for the playoffs. At the very worst he would probably be our best base stealer.
 
So other than the obvious choice in Peraza...is Kubitza the next best breakout for this year? .412 OBP? That looks tasty at 3B for us in the future.
 
thethe said:
So other than the obvious choice in Peraza...is Kubitza the next best breakout for this year? .412 OBP? That looks tasty at 3B for us in the future.
Click to expand...

Kubitza has helped his stock a lot, but given age and level I wouldn't project him as a starting player in the majors. Doesn't mean he has no chance, but I'd put the odds below 50%.

Daniel Castro is another one who imo has moved up our ranking list quite a bit.
 
nsacpi said:
Kubitza has helped his stock a lot, but given age and level I wouldn't project him as a starting player in the majors. Doesn't mean he has no chance, but I'd put the odds below 50%.

Daniel Castro is another one who imo has moved up our ranking list quite a bit.
Click to expand...

TLS was the same age last year in AA. I think Kubitza is going to surprise some people. Solid reports defensively and his SB numbers indicate to me that he is relatively athletic. I doubt he hits for much HR power in the majors but if we could have another 350-370 OBP guy in the lineup with doubles power and plays solid defense then we should be ecstatic.
 
The problem with Kubitza is his K rate is too high for his power. Assuming he hits the bigs and has a dip in his BB rate and a rise in his K rate as most hitters do, he's a 10% and 30% guy. Couple that with pedestrian power and you're looking at BJ Upton without position scarcity. He would need to either cut his Ks down or get his power up.
 
thethe said:
TLS was the same age last year in AA. I think Kubitza is going to surprise some people. Solid reports defensively and his SB numbers indicate to me that he is relatively athletic. I doubt he hits for much HR power in the majors but if we could have another 350-370 OBP guy in the lineup with doubles power and plays solid defense then we should be ecstatic.
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20 errors and rico--having seen him play--says he's a statue. I honestly have no idea on Kubitza. I'm guessing valuable piece, but not a full-time starter.

nsacpi, La Stella hasn't really exceeded expectations for me. He is who he is and I think he doesn't have much ceiling left, but there's no question he's good. Overlooked Gosselin to some extent, but I have been really surprised by the other guys except for Camargo (who has rebounded impressively from a miserable start that I thought would have him back in Danville for the short-season). I never thought Reyes' bat would carry. He's still extremely average-driven, but he's a glove guy and in the right situation (not Atlanta) he could be a major league starter. I mean, Pedro Florimon started over 100 games in the big leagues last season, so I don't see why Reyes couldn't earn a shot at some point.
 
thethe said:
TLS was the same age last year in AA. I think Kubitza is going to surprise some people. Solid reports defensively and his SB numbers indicate to me that he is relatively athletic. I doubt he hits for much HR power in the majors but if we could have another 350-370 OBP guy in the lineup with doubles power and plays solid defense then we should be ecstatic.
Click to expand...

Actually a player performing like TLS at his age and level in AA typically does not succeed as a starting major league player. There were some subtle things that suggested he had a bit better chance of making the transition (the walk and strikeout rates), but his success does not change the odds for guys like Kubitza.

I like what Kubitza has done this year and think he has a shot of being a major league regular, but the odds are still less than 50% imo. If I had to make a bet, I'd guess that over the next two to three years Chris Johnson will do better than Kubitza (using a measure such as WAR/game, as imperfect as that is).
 
zitothebrave said:
The problem with Kubitza is his K rate is too high for his power. Assuming he hits the bigs and has a dip in his BB rate and a rise in his K rate as most hitters do, he's a 10% and 30% guy. Couple that with pedestrian power and you're looking at BJ Upton without position scarcity. He would need to either cut his Ks down or get his power up.
Click to expand...

Interesting comparison between Kubitza and BJ. I am somewhat encouraged that Kubitza's walk rate has not trended down as he has moved up to higher levels in the minors. If (and it is a big if) that can happen as he moves up to AAA and majors, then he is a pretty useful player. The other thing about him that I like is that he seems to be able to sustain a high BABIP. Not the fluky high .398 he has this year. But something around .350 (he was at .344 last season). So a sustainable high BABIP would be something that would potentially set him apart from BJ. A .350 BABIP player with a 10% walk rate ain't chopped liver.
 
nsacpi said:
Actually a player performing like TLS at his age and level in AA typically does not succeed as a starting major league player. There were some subtle things that suggested he had a bit better chance of making the transition (the walk and strikeout rates), but his success does not change the odds for guys like Kubitza.

I like what Kubitza has done this year and think he has a shot of being a major league regular, but the odds are still less than 50% imo. If I had to make a bet, I'd guess that over the next two to three years Chris Johnson will do better than Kubitza (using a measure such as WAR/game, as imperfect as that is).
Click to expand...

The big thing with La Stella is his contact rate. It has been very good since he signed and there was no erosion as he moved up the ladder. The question on Kubitza--and it will be answered at some point at the big league level--is how high the BABIP has to be at the major league level given his current contact rate. The big difference between La Stella and Kubitza is contact rate. Kubtiza's K rate really does put him at the margin, at least to me, because a player still has to put the ball in play with authority to succeed. If you can't do that, pitchers catch on and they are going to simply throw strikes and let guys get themselves out.
 
Trying to project Kubitza relative to Chris Johnson, Kubitza is likely to have a higher strikeout rate at the major league level, but much better walk rate. BABIP should be above average for both. Power should be close. So it would seem to come down to whether the difference in walk rate offsets the higher strikeout rate.
 
Problem is that just cause he has a high BABIP in the minors doesn't mean it translates to the majors. Minor league batted ball stats are extremely static.
 
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