Minors Results 8-26

[nsacpi]

Well he said steamer was wrong, right?

Yeah. I'm looking at their K rate projections for other Braves minor league hitters. Doesn't look right. For example, they project a lower K rate in the majors for Trey Harris than his K rate in AA. Does not compute.

 

[Jaw]

Yeah. I'm looking at their K rate projections for other Braves minor league hitters. Doesn't look right. For example, they project a lower K rate in the majors for Trey Harris than his K rate in AA. Does not compute.

Mississippi doesn't have Nick Markakis on the bench.

 

[Enscheff]

I like to see a K rate of 25 or less out of hitting prospects in AAA. If its over 25 that translates to 30 or so in the majors. And its very hard (not impossible but very hard) to be a productive major league player if your K rate is 30 or higher.

I also don't think you can just look at the "good" data. Players get hot and cold. But that's who they are. So you have to count all of it when evaluating if a player has a chance to be productive in the majors. Of course young players improve, so you need some sort of rule about how far back you need to go. But I would say 400 PAs strikes a good balance between the need for a decent sample while not obscuring the possibility a player has improved.

EL and/or Kiley have talked about how all K rates at the AA/AAA level aren't created equally.

A guy like Bellinger had a high K rate coupled with a high BB rate. This suggested he was working counts to get pitches to drive, and his high K and BB rates were a function of deep counts. That skill set tends to translate to the MLB level well.

A guy like Riley also had a pretty high BB rate to go along with the high K rate, but his skill set didn't translate to the MLB immediately (outside the insane luck streak). This tells me simply looking at K/BB rates isn't good enough...someone actually needs to see the approach, as it was clear Riley was guessing most of the time at the MLB level and looked terrible when he guessed wrong.

If we had MiLB plate discipline numbers like Z-Contact% and O-Swing% we could determine why the K rates are what they are, much like I did very quickly with Riley to determine there were serious red flags with his offensive profile, even during the luck streak. Unfortunately, we don't, so all we can do is guess who can really hit and who is simply feasting on MiLB pitchers unable to execute pitch sequences. I'm guessing the Braves have this data, and are making decisions accordingly.

 

[nsacpi]

EL and/or Kiley have talked about how all K rates at the AA/AAA level aren't created equally.

A guy like Bellinger had a high K rate coupled with a high BB rate. This suggested he was working counts to get pitches to drive, and his high K and BB rates were a function of deep counts. That skill set tends to translate to the MLB level well.

A guy like Riley also had a pretty high BB rate to go along with the high K rate, but his skill set didn't translate to the MLB immediately (outside the insane luck streak). This tells me simply looking at K/BB rates isn't good enough...someone actually needs to see the approach, as it was clear Riley was guessing most of the time at the MLB level and looked terrible when he guessed wrong.

If we had MiLB plate discipline numbers like Z-Contact% and O-Swing% we could determine why the K rates are what they are, much like I did very quickly with Riley to determine there were serious red flags with his offensive profile, even during the luck streak. Unfortunately, we don't, so all we can do is guess who can really hit and who is simply feasting on MiLB pitchers unable to execute pitch sequences. I'm guessing the Braves have this data, and are making decisions accordingly.

But even Bellinger had a high K rate (26.6%) in his first major league season. He's been bringing it down to 23.9 last year and 16.9 this year. This is an example of the room for improvement that a player reaching at age 21 often sees. Though in Bellinger's case it is a bigger improvement than average.

Bellinger's minor league K rate numbers were difficult to parse. 27.6% in High A. 20.2% in AA. 28.6% in a relatively small sample in AAA. That 20.2% in AA is the number that catches my eye, but that is with the benefit of hindsight. The 20.2 is roughly consistent with the 26.6 in the majors the next year.

Waters has not put up the kind of walk rates Bellinger has. This year in AA Waters has had a 6.2% BB rate. Bellinger in his AA season had a 12.7% walk rate.

 

[Enscheff]

I agree that Waters' overall offensive profile is littered with red flags. High K, low BB, Low power, high BABIP isn't exactly the best recipe for success. I think he is a bit overrated in Braves prospect circles. A very good prospect, but the folks penciling in the 2020 OF as Acuna/Waters/Pache are being a little homerific.

Pache seems to have better peripherals to go along with supposedly all world defense. He is pretty clearly the superior prospect.

 

[Deester11]

I agree that Waters' overall offensive profile is littered with red flags. High K, low BB, Low power, high BABIP isn't exactly the best recipe for success. I think he is a bit overrated in Braves prospect circles. A very good prospect, but the folks penciling in the 2020 OF as Acuna/Waters/Pache are being a little homerific.

Pache seems to have better peripherals to go along with supposedly all world defense. He is pretty clearly the superior prospect.

Get out of my mind En. It's all of this and I've not wavered on it. All the things you've listed are spot on but I love Pache's ceiling as he is still realizing his offensive potential as far as consistent lift in his swing and applying it in game. I'm a Waters fan too and I think he'll improve his game. Needs time just like Pache.

 

[zbhargrove]

Get out of my mind En. It's all of this and I've not wavered on it. All the things you've listed are spot on but I love Pache's ceiling as he is still realizing his offensive potential as far as consistent lift in his swing and applying it in game. I'm a Waters fan too and I think he'll improve his game. Needs time just like Pache.

I see on Twitter all the time "Waters has a higher ceiling, but Pache has a higher floor"... In my head these people don't know a damn thing as they don't realize Pache's ceiling is ridiculously high.

 

[Enscheff]

I see on Twitter all the time "Waters has a higher ceiling, but Pache has a higher floor"... In my head these people don't know a damn thing as they don't realize Pache's ceiling is ridiculously high.

Pache probably has both the higher ceiling and the higher floor, with that floor raising every time he hits better at a higher level.

Of course, that doesn't mean Pache can't flop while Waters turns into Adam Eaton.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

This thread is over 24 hours old and no mention of Zito?