MLB Trade Deadline Discussion

David O'Brien ‏@ajcbraves 27s
#Braves have 1 of their top scouts on #Cubs, who have pair of LHRs who could fill ATL's priority need, James Russell & Wesley Wright
 
Just a random thought here.
Say the Rockies would do this deal:
Rox get A. Simmons and A. Wood
Braves get Tulo and Jorge De La Rosa.
Would you do it? Tulo may be that consistent bat we need (provided health), and DLR is a left starter that pales in comparison to Wood, but overall I think we'd be a better team. I pull the trigger.
 
Here is one highly simplified way of looking at a Tulo verus Simmons trade. It looks at their "expected surplus value" which is their expected WAR minus their cost of their contracts (expressed in WAR which are assumed to cost $6 million each, one of the simplifying assumptions is zero inflation).

Tulo is assumed to be a 6 WAR/year player for the rest of 2014 and 2015. I further assume he declines to 5 WAR in 2016 and by 0.5 WAR per year after that. His contract ends in his age 35 season, with an option for his age 36 season.

Simmons is assumed to be a 4 WAR/year player for the life of his contract (which ends in his age 30 season).

Both contracts are very favorable for their clubs. By my calculation Tulo for the life of his contract will generate an "expected surplus" equivalent to 11 WAR. Simmons will generate an "expected surplus" of 17 WAR.

So I would not trade Simmons for Tulo.

ymmv
 
You also have to factor in Tulo's penchant for getting hurt, though WAR does take that into account somewhat. He's missed over 200 games in the last 5 seasons.
 
yeezus said:
Just a random thought here.
Say the Rockies would do this deal:
Rox get A. Simmons and A. Wood
Braves get Tulo and Jorge De La Rosa.
Would you do it? Tulo may be that consistent bat we need (provided health), and DLR is a left starter that pales in comparison to Wood, but overall I think we'd be a better team. I pull the trigger.
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Murph, is that you?
 
nsacpi said:
Here is one highly simplified way of looking at a Tulo verus Simmons trade. It looks at their "expected surplus value" which is their expected WAR minus their cost of their contracts (expressed in WAR which are assumed to cost $6 million each, one of the simplifying assumptions is zero inflation).

Tulo is assumed to be a 6 WAR/year player for the rest of 2014 and 2015. I further assume he declines to 5 WAR in 2016 and by 0.5 WAR per year after that. His contract ends in his age 35 season, with an option for his age 36 season.

Simmons is assumed to be a 4 WAR/year player for the life of his contract (which ends in his age 30 season).

Both contracts are very favorable for their clubs. By my calculation Tulo for the life of his contract will generate an "expected surplus" equivalent to 11 WAR. Simmons will generate an "expected surplus" of 17 WAR.

So I would not trade Simmons for Tulo.

ymmv
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This is the exact kind of reasoning I just can't get on board with...

Premium players like Tulo are extremely rare. It's not like you can just spend $25M per year and buy a 6 WAR player whenever you want, which is precisely why premium players are locked up to long term deals and are almost always overpaid. You need studs to win, and if you don't produce them yourself, you have to pay for them.

If you want to be a championship level club you need to have lots of WAR concentrated into a few really good players, and then surround them with other good players. You also need to stop paying guys like Uggla and BJ as if they are said studs.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the exact kind of reasoning I just can't get on board with...

Premium players like Tulo are extremely rare. It's not like you can just spend $25M per year and buy a 6 WAR player whenever you want, which is precisely why premium players are locked up to long term deals and are almost always overpaid. You need studs to win, and if you don't produce them yourself, you have to pay for them.

If you want to be a championship level club you need to have lots of WAR concentrated into a few really good players, and then surround them with other good players. You also need to stop paying guys like Uggla and BJ as if they are said studs.
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I understand the point you are making and it has some validity. But at the same time there are different ways of building a championship team. Paying market value (whether via free agency or the trade market) for those 6+ WAR players isn't necessarily the best way to go. Developing such players and locking them em up if possible is the better way imo. Look at last season's WS winner. Their best player was Ellsbury (a little less than 6 WAR), a relatively cheap homegrown player and they took a pass once he hit the market. And I would argue they made the right decision not to sign him to a market value deal. The Red Sox built a championship team by signing mid-level free agents. They got some luck in the form of a career season from Victorino. But luck is always part of the equation.

The year before the Giants won with their MVP and league MVP being a young, cheap home grown player (Posey) who was still in his pre-free agency years. Besides him they didn't have a single player worth over 5 WAR that season.

There are teams that have taken the approach you advocate. Some aren't doing that well (Yankees, Phillies, Rangers). Others are contending (Dodgers, Mariners, Angels). I suspect the window is rather narrow for the Mariners and Angels, which should give us pause about taking a similar approach. It is wider for the Dodgers, in part because of their very deep pockets and some very good young players (Kershaw and Puig). Tulo is a great player but pretty soon he'll be in his declining years. I'd compare acquiring him to Seattle's signing of Cano. Not a perfect comp, but similar in terms of risk/reward profile.
 
Obviously it is better to produce a cheap 6 win player yourself, but that isn't what we are discussing.

If we were comparing two 6 win players, the cheaper one would be a better value. But again, that isn't what we are discussing either.

We are comparing a 4 win player to a 6 win player, and you are arguing that the 4 win player is "worth more" because his $/win value is lower. It I my opinion that being able to concentrate 6 wins into a single player is worth more than having a 4 win player and another 2 win player because you don't have to use up 2 roster spots to get those 6 wins.

I guess that was my long way of saying that if Wren can get Tulo for Simmons and make the money work somehow (I seriously doubt he could), then that's a trade he needs to make without hesitation.
 
Enscheff said:
Obviously it is better to produce a cheap 6 win player yourself, but that isn't what we are discussing.

If we were comparing two 6 win players, the cheaper one would be a better value. But again, that isn't what we are discussing either.

We are comparing a 4 win player to a 6 win player, and you are arguing that the 4 win player is "worth more" because his $/win value is lower. It I my opinion that being able to concentrate 6 wins into a single player is worth more than having a 4 win player and another 2 win player because you don't have to use up 2 roster spots to get those 6 wins.

I guess that was my long way of saying that if Wren can get Tulo for Simmons and make the money work somehow (I seriously doubt he could), then that's a trade he needs to make without hesitation.
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If you have a big enough discount factor you make these sorts of trades. Smoltz for Alexander, etc. It comes down to how much you are willing to borrow from the future.
 
nsacpi said:
If you have a big enough discount factor you make these sorts of trades. Smoltz for Alexander, etc. It comes down to how much you are willing to borrow from the future.
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Screw Russell and to a lesser extent wright the lefty I want is bastardo wonder what we would have to give Philly back? Maybe expand it to include another bench bat... Philly could use some of our pitching surplus
 
jcc03004 said:
Screw Russell and to a lesser extent wright the lefty I want is bastardo wonder what we would have to give Philly back? Maybe expand it to include another bench bat... Philly could use some of our pitching surplus
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I want no part of Bastardo... he always looks like a time bomb to me.
 
So David Price is follwing Chipper on twtter. Not that it means anything.

Chipper Jones ‏@RealCJ10 47m

Nothing better than having a flame throwing, stud lefty following you. Welcome to the fold @DAVIDprice14. U like Atlanta?? Wink,wink
 
Huston Street is being traded to the Angels? That'll come in handy with 7 games against the Padres coming up.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
There are reports that the Angels are getting close to a deal with the Padres for Huston Street.
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Jim Bowden broke it: Street and Class AA player to Angels for Taylor Lindsey, Jose Rondon, RJ Alvarez and another minor leaguer. Lindsey top positional prospect in Angels system (2B). Rondon 20 year old SS. Alvarez, RHP, team's No. 4 prospect.
 
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