I predicted the Cueto signing would be the worst that off season. Arrieta and Hosmer will be just as bad this off season.
MLBTR Top 50 Free-Agents With Predictions
- Thread starter clvclv
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I predicted the Cueto signing would be the worst that off season. Arrieta and Hosmer will be just as bad this off season.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Kemp's salary is a sunk cost essentially. You pay 12 million a year to move him and you've still saved 6 million to spend.
striker42
Well-known member
I should have been more specific. I was thinking about front loading the amount we pay on Kemp's deal. We could pay all of his salary this year, $6 million additional, and get out from under it quicker.
Of all the bad signings the Braves could make this off season, Mous at 5/85 would be one of the least bad. Signing Arrieta is probably the worst case scenario this off season.
Mous is basically the equivalent of sticking MAdams at 3B and having him suddenly be average defensively at the position.
While I don't want to see the Braves do it, signing the best/youngest FA 3B available to improve the position they ranked #27 in MLB in 2017 and 2016 is far from the worst case scenario.
If the Braves make the suggested signings by MLBTR, give Markakis away, and eat all of Kemp's money, I have the Braves projected at 85 wins and $106M total. That is a very plausible scenario.
They can still upgrade LF by 2-4 wins if they unload MAdams to save $4.6M and trade for someone like Piscotty, Avi Garcia or Ozuna. That would put them at 87-89 wins and $105M-$110M.
Mous is basically the equivalent of sticking MAdams at 3B and having him suddenly be average defensively at the position.
While I don't want to see the Braves do it, signing the best/youngest FA 3B available to improve the position they ranked #27 in MLB in 2017 and 2016 is far from the worst case scenario.
If the Braves make the suggested signings by MLBTR, give Markakis away, and eat all of Kemp's money, I have the Braves projected at 85 wins and $106M total. That is a very plausible scenario.
They can still upgrade LF by 2-4 wins if they unload MAdams to save $4.6M and trade for someone like Piscotty, Avi Garcia or Ozuna. That would put them at 87-89 wins and $105M-$110M.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
I agree Mous at 5/85 wouldn't be the worst deal ever but I think 85 million is a bit of an over pay for him. 5/75 would be my top offer to him.
If the rumors of the Marlins fire sale are true I would hold on signing free agents until I explored all possible options with them. In order to lessen the prospect capital required to get a guy like Yelich or Realmuto I would take Prado back and let him share time with Camargo at 3rd. If the Braves could add a guy like Yelich Realmuto or Ozuna without having to give up more than two top 100 prospects I would be ok with seeing a platoon at 3rd base for a couple of years.
I think a good GM and manager could piece a decent and inexpensive 3rd base platoon.
Agreed 100%. Taking Prado's full salary might be the key to the Braves off season.
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
Moose is a good player and I like him. However, he’s not a fit in Atlanta. I’d rather get Prado or sign Frazier for a couple or three years. During that time, we can see what we’ve got in Austin Riley, to find out if he can be the guy of the future at third.
The case for Moustakas...
1.) Gets out ahead of the staggeringly inflated prices we'll see on next season's market - we can't play on Machado, and I'd prefer not to play on a much older Donaldson for a lot more money either (just think that's way too much to pay for anyone in their late 30s no matter who they are).
2.) Balances the current lineup - Ender, Albies, Freeman, Kemp, Moustakas, Flowers/Suzuki, Markakis, Swanson.
3.) Staggers the in-house replacements so much better. If you're making the effort to be "in the mix" in 2018, it's easier to justify keeping Acuna down in finishing school longer - you don't rush to move Markakis just to create a hole for him. If you can keep him down until August and no one's interested in giving you anything decent for Nick, platoon he and Kemp and make your offense that much stronger if you really are on the fringe of the race.
4.) Removes all concerns about Riley's defense (for those who have them). The rumblings already have been that they're going to at least somewhat try slowing down his ETA. Send him back to Mississippi and begin transitioning him to LF - at a level where he's already had success at the plate. Then start him in Gwinnett in 2019 and have him breathing down Kemp's neck like Acuna will Markakis' this year. It's a lot easier to eat whatever money is left on the vets' contracts when you KNOW the kids are going to produce better. If push comes to shove after the next two deadlines, you simply DFA Nick and Matt if you can't get anything in return.
5.) Helps position you better for extensions. You have ~$22 million coming off the books following next season (Markakis, Flowers, Suzuki), and will be replacing your RF and backup Catcher with players who will be making the minimum (Acuna and Scivicque). You'd be in a good position to overpay Flowers a little to keep him as a year-to-year contract rather than offering him multiple years. You'd also potentially have ~$29 million to spend the following winter when Kemp comes off the books and is replaced by Riley for the minimum and Julio is potentially traded/let go.
6.) Keeps you from having to put undue pressure/expectations on Acuna and Riley and allows you to start them much lower in the lineup as you work them in. You'd be able to give Acuna plenty of time to adjust at the back-end of the lineup because you'd have Ender, Ozzie, Freddie, Kemp, and Moose at the top and you could justify hitting Flowers in front of him while he gets comfortable as well. After Acuna's had a full season's worth of ABs to get acclimated, he can slot in between Freddie and Moose and Riley can hit down in front of Swanson when he comes up.
1.) Gets out ahead of the staggeringly inflated prices we'll see on next season's market - we can't play on Machado, and I'd prefer not to play on a much older Donaldson for a lot more money either (just think that's way too much to pay for anyone in their late 30s no matter who they are).
2.) Balances the current lineup - Ender, Albies, Freeman, Kemp, Moustakas, Flowers/Suzuki, Markakis, Swanson.
3.) Staggers the in-house replacements so much better. If you're making the effort to be "in the mix" in 2018, it's easier to justify keeping Acuna down in finishing school longer - you don't rush to move Markakis just to create a hole for him. If you can keep him down until August and no one's interested in giving you anything decent for Nick, platoon he and Kemp and make your offense that much stronger if you really are on the fringe of the race.
4.) Removes all concerns about Riley's defense (for those who have them). The rumblings already have been that they're going to at least somewhat try slowing down his ETA. Send him back to Mississippi and begin transitioning him to LF - at a level where he's already had success at the plate. Then start him in Gwinnett in 2019 and have him breathing down Kemp's neck like Acuna will Markakis' this year. It's a lot easier to eat whatever money is left on the vets' contracts when you KNOW the kids are going to produce better. If push comes to shove after the next two deadlines, you simply DFA Nick and Matt if you can't get anything in return.
5.) Helps position you better for extensions. You have ~$22 million coming off the books following next season (Markakis, Flowers, Suzuki), and will be replacing your RF and backup Catcher with players who will be making the minimum (Acuna and Scivicque). You'd be in a good position to overpay Flowers a little to keep him as a year-to-year contract rather than offering him multiple years. You'd also potentially have ~$29 million to spend the following winter when Kemp comes off the books and is replaced by Riley for the minimum and Julio is potentially traded/let go.
6.) Keeps you from having to put undue pressure/expectations on Acuna and Riley and allows you to start them much lower in the lineup as you work them in. You'd be able to give Acuna plenty of time to adjust at the back-end of the lineup because you'd have Ender, Ozzie, Freddie, Kemp, and Moose at the top and you could justify hitting Flowers in front of him while he gets comfortable as well. After Acuna's had a full season's worth of ABs to get acclimated, he can slot in between Freddie and Moose and Riley can hit down in front of Swanson when he comes up.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
1) Unclear that valuation will be much different in next year's market. On a naive level, an increased supply of highly talented free agents could be expected to depress prices. But teams know what's coming and will plan accordingly.
2) On lefty-righty balance, I agree there is a bit more need for a lefty bat and Moustakas helps in that regard.
3) I don't think this argument applies specifically to Moustakas. It would be true of any competent major leaguer brought in to play on the left side of the infield.
4) Not clear to me that Riley will be able to make the transition to outfield. Of course it is also an open question whether he will develop into a strong enough player to be a major league regular.
5) I agree that signing Moustakas to a four or five year deal does not present problems with "staggering" contracts. However, this still leaves open the more important question of whether it is a good idea from a value perspective.
6) Don't think pressure/expectations on young players will vary depending upon whether we sign Moustakas or not.