MONDAY Minors Thread 5/14 ... What happens next? Gohara exits early!

[smootness]

I think we have gotten spoiled by what Albies and Acuna did at very young ages. Not every good prospect is an uber prodigy like those two. Cruz is young enough that he could re-establish himself as a good but not elite prospect.

I know he has time. Again, I'm not trying to render a verdict on him. I'm just saying that even at 17-18, OPS'ing under .500 is a lot different than something like .675. There is not great, then there is flat out awful. Cruz has been flat out awful.

Not giving up on him, just recognizing his performance so far for what it is. Not a good sign.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I know he has time. Again, I'm not trying to render a verdict on him. I'm just saying that even at 17-18, OPS'ing under .500 is a lot different than something like .675. There is not great, then there is flat out awful. Cruz has been flat out awful.

Not giving up on him, just recognizing his performance so far for what it is. Not a good sign.

think we can agree on that.

 

[50PoundHead]

A move to center might be in his future.

There was flip-flopping on who was the better prospect--Pache or Cruz--when they were signed. Cruz is supposedly extremely athletic and it was mentioned when he signed that he could end up in the OF. It's important to remember that Wilson Betemit spent four seasons in short-season ball before advancing (2 in GCL, 1 in Appy, 1 in NY-P). That was prior to the Braves having a team in the DSL, but Cruz and Pache went straight to the GCL. I will be curious to see how they handle the 2016 international signings. I just think the organization has gotten "promote happy" and that might work for some but not for others. I don't know what, if anything, it does to players' psyches, but if you've invested heavily in a player, the mental/psychological angle needs to be taken into account. I've always been in the "walk before you run" category when it comes to player development because guys can develop really bad habits when they are playing at a level higher than their current skill level can readily translate.

 

[nsacpi]

There was flip-flopping on who was the better prospect--Pache or Cruz--when they were signed. Cruz is supposedly extremely athletic and it was mentioned when he signed that he could end up in the OF. It's important to remember that Wilson Betemit spent four seasons in short-season ball before advancing (2 in GCL, 1 in Appy, 1 in NY-P). That was prior to the Braves having a team in the DSL, but Cruz and Pache went straight to the GCL. I will be curious to see how they handle the 2016 international signings. I just think the organization has gotten "promote happy" and that might work for some but not for others. I don't know what, if anything, it does to players' psyches, but if you've invested heavily in a player, the mental/psychological angle needs to be taken into account. I've always been in the "walk before you run" category when it comes to player development because guys can develop really bad habits when they are playing at a level higher than their current skill level can readily translate.

The looming presence of Maitan is another factor that will be affecting Cruz if it has not already. I'm guessing they will keep Maitan at short as long as he has a reasonable chance of sticking there. Which means the guy being moved is likely to be Cruz.

 

[smootness]

There was flip-flopping on who was the better prospect--Pache or Cruz--when they were signed. Cruz is supposedly extremely athletic and it was mentioned when he signed that he could end up in the OF. It's important to remember that Wilson Betemit spent four seasons in short-season ball before advancing (2 in GCL, 1 in Appy, 1 in NY-P). That was prior to the Braves having a team in the DSL, but Cruz and Pache went straight to the GCL. I will be curious to see how they handle the 2016 international signings. I just think the organization has gotten "promote happy" and that might work for some but not for others. I don't know what, if anything, it does to players' psyches, but if you've invested heavily in a player, the mental/psychological angle needs to be taken into account. I've always been in the "walk before you run" category when it comes to player development because guys can develop really bad habits when they are playing at a level higher than their current skill level can readily translate.

True, but Betemit also signed when he was 15 (!). At 17, he OPS'd .846 in Danville.

 

[50PoundHead]

True, but Betemit also signed when he was 15 (!). At 17, he OPS'd .846 in Danville.

But he had two years of professional instruction when he did that. I'm not comparing Cruz to Betemit. I'm just pointing out that I don't believe Cruz was ready for full-season ball. Miguel Sano spent two years in short-season ball before playing full-season ball and that wasn't that long ago. I just think the Braves are throwing a lot of these kids into a situation they aren't prepared to face. I frankly don't know if that has an effect or not, but it's pretty obvious Cruz was not ready for full-season ball and that should be no surprise given his struggles at Danville last season. I just think the player development folks need to dial it back a little.

 

[zbhargrove]

I'm so pumped to see Maitan... we really need for him to be all he's hyped up to be

 

[smootness]

But he had two years of professional instruction when he did that. I'm not comparing Cruz to Betemit. I'm just pointing out that I don't believe Cruz was ready for full-season ball. Miguel Sano spent two years in short-season ball before playing full-season ball and that wasn't that long ago. I just think the Braves are throwing a lot of these kids into a situation they aren't prepared to face. I frankly don't know if that has an effect or not, but it's pretty obvious Cruz was not ready for full-season ball and that should be no surprise given his struggles at Danville last season. I just think the player development folks need to dial it back a little.

I agree that there needs to be an individualized approach for each player. And Cruz's performance in Danville didn't seem to indicate he was ready for Rome. But he did hit well in the GCL, and they are making the determination off more things than just game results.

I think moving him back is the right move, and I'm not going to argue if someone believes we made a mistake in moving him to Rome too quickly. But you also don't really know who's going to be able to handle the move until you make it, so I'd honestly probably rather get guys who can handle it, like Albies, Acuna, and Pache, up earlier at the risk that somebody like Cruz can't handle it than keep them all down longer and lose some development time on the more advanced guys.

In an ideal world, you would know exactly who can handle moves and who can't and promote them accordingly. But it's tough. I don't really have an issue with letting guys hit Rome at 18 if we think they're ready. Is there a long-term impact on Cruz as a result of the quick move? Who knows. Maybe, and if so, that's a mistake. But honestly, I doubt the time in Rome did much to hurt his long-term development. So it's clear he's not ready, now he goes back to Danville and gets time to work while Pache stays at Rome because he can handle it.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I think he's thought of as a decent backup catcher prospect, yeah.

If that's the case...anyone think he has a shot at ATL next year? If he's 25 and can catch well for the minimum that is most back up catchers. He seems like he's competent with the bat. Ideally you can hit him 8th and maybe he can go .250/.320 (b/c hitting 8th)/.375. That would be a useful piece, especially considering we got him Aybar.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

If that's the case...anyone think he has a shot at ATL next year? If he's 25 and can catch well for the minimum that is most back up catchers. He seems like he's competent with the bat. Ideally you can hit him 8th and maybe he can go .250/.320 (b/c hitting 8th)/.375. That would be a useful piece, especially considering we got him Aybar.

I think they'll wait till 2019 because catchers are slow tracked. Kade is definitely performing well though, and I haven't heard about anything wrong with his receiving or defense.

 

[nsacpi]

If that's the case...anyone think he has a shot at ATL next year? If he's 25 and can catch well for the minimum that is most back up catchers. He seems like he's competent with the bat. Ideally you can hit him 8th and maybe he can go .250/.320 (b/c hitting 8th)/.375. That would be a useful piece, especially considering we got him Aybar.

My guess is he will start next year in Gwinnett. We have Recker in Gwinnett. I think of the guys currently in the system, he is mostly likely to be our backup catcher in the majors. But there is another catcher at Gwinnett named David Freitas who is hitting very well. He is 28, so maybe a career minor leaguer. But still, this is the second year in a row he has raked.

 

[Enscheff]

I wonder how you keep him out of top 50 in mid season prospect updates. I wouldn't be shocked to see him too 10 after the season if he keeps this up

You don't. I think he has pretty clearly demonstrated he belongs in the Robles/Jimenez/Moniak group of elite young OF prospects. In fact, if a posi-Brave wanted to argue he is the best current OF prospect in the game, he wouldn't get a huge disagreement from me.

 

[smootness]

You don't. I think he has pretty clearly demonstrated he belongs in the Robles/Jimenez/Moniak group of elite young OF prospects. In fact, if a posi-Brave wanted to argue he is the best current OF prospect in the game, he wouldn't get a huge disagreement from me.

I haven't looked into the others enough to say that for sure, but it's pretty tough to argue against. On pure results, none of the others has hit AA yet, Acuna is a good bit younger than Robles/Jimenez and only a little older than Moniak, and none of them has produced better offense.

It comes down to scouting and whether you think his tools ultimately surpass the others, and I don't know on that. His defense and baserunning is better than Jimenez but probably not as good as Robles. But anyway, yeah, he's clearly put himself in that top tier.

 

[Enscheff]

But let's pump the brakes on the Andruw comps before anyone gets started. For reference, when Andruw was 19 he made a whirlwind tour through A+, AA and AAA while posting the following line in 511 PAs:

.339/.421/.652 (1.072 OPS) with 34 HRs, 30 SBs, and elite defense in CF. Oh yeah, he then went on to hit some HRs in the WS that year.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

But let's pump the brakes on the Andruw comps before anyone gets started. For reference, when Andruw was 19 he made a whirlwind tour through A+, AA and AAA while posting the following line in 511 PAs:

.339/.421/.652 (1.072 OPS) with 34 HRs, 30 SBs, and elite defense in CF. Oh yeah, he then went on to hit some HRs in the WS that year.

Hey thanks for the memories of that WS choke job... this is why we can't have nice things..

 

[smootness]

But let's pump the brakes on the Andruw comps before anyone gets started. For reference, when Andruw was 19 he made a whirlwind tour through A+, AA and AAA while posting the following line in 511 PAs:

.339/.421/.652 (1.072 OPS) with 34 HRs, 30 SBs, and elite defense in CF. Oh yeah, he then went on to hit some HRs in the WS that year.

Yeah, I never have and never will compare him to Andruw. His defense is reportedly 'pretty good' at best, so that's a non-starter.

Andruw is on the short list of best prospects of the last 50 years. Like, probably top 5 on that list.

 

[zbhargrove]

Mentioning that Acuna kind of reminds some of Andruw as a prospect is not comparing the two. I don't think anyone on here has actually compare them... Chipper has though.

 

[Enscheff]

Mentioning that Acuna kind of reminds some of Andruw as a prospect is not comparing the two. I don't think anyone on here has actually compare them... Chipper has though.

Chipper also said Alex Jackson was going to make an impact...right after not remembering his name. Being a HOF player doesn't automatically qualify someone to be a prospect evaluator.

So yeah, comparing Acuna to Andruw because the "ball sounds different coming off his bat", or "he just makes the game look easy" is as silly as comparing Soroka to Maddux because he "just knows how to hit his spots and change speeds".

 

[Southcack77]

I know he has time. Again, I'm not trying to render a verdict on him. I'm just saying that even at 17-18, OPS'ing under .500 is a lot different than something like .675. There is not great, then there is flat out awful. Cruz has been flat out awful.

Not giving up on him, just recognizing his performance so far for what it is. Not a good sign.

Not sure I agree it's that significant.

Did he tear up the gcl last year before being promoted?

Can't recall. Look it up later i guess

 

[Southcack77]

There was flip-flopping on who was the better prospect--Pache or Cruz--when they were signed. Cruz is supposedly extremely athletic and it was mentioned when he signed that he could end up in the OF. It's important to remember that Wilson Betemit spent four seasons in short-season ball before advancing (2 in GCL, 1 in Appy, 1 in NY-P). That was prior to the Braves having a team in the DSL, but Cruz and Pache went straight to the GCL. I will be curious to see how they handle the 2016 international signings. I just think the organization has gotten "promote happy" and that might work for some but not for others. I don't know what, if anything, it does to players' psyches, but if you've invested heavily in a player, the mental/psychological angle needs to be taken into account. I've always been in the "walk before you run" category when it comes to player development because guys can develop really bad habits when they are playing at a level higher than their current skill level can readily translate.

Bad habits are usually developed when talent isn't being challenged.

I don't see the harm in pushing players through lower levels. Some of these distinctions are pretty meaningless.

You aren't learning to hit major league pitching in low a ball.

Worst that happens is a kid gets sent down a level with some motivation.

Soft kids don't usually pan out anyway.

I do agree it's better to let struggling guys master a level.